The Stanley Cup Finals begin Monday night with Western Conference champion San Jose taking on Eastern Conference champion Pittsburgh.
While Pittsburgh is considered the favorite, it's expected to be competitive, with the odds suggesting a 59 percent chance of the Penguins winning the Cup. Home-ice advantage has tipped the scales in their favor.
MORE: Who gets NHL 17 cover? | If you stink, your game rating drops
With that in mind, we turned to the two premier hockey video games on the market to provide insight into what might take place by running simulations with EA Sports' NHL 16 and Out of the Park Developments' Franchise Hockey Manager 2.
Earlier both games simulated the entirety of the playoffs and both failed in predicting the teams that would win the Stanley Cup. NHL 16 went with the Washington Capitals (ouch) while FHM 2 favored the Blues (almost).
How do the two games suggest the Stanley Cup Finals will play out? It's a split decision, so we know one of them got it right.
NHL 16
Game 1: 3-2 San Jose (OT)
The Sharks opened up the game with a goal less than a minute in from Logan Couture. The Penguins responded with two of their own before the first period finished (Matt Cullen and Sidney Crosby). SJ tied it in the second with a goal from Joe Thornton and it stayed that way until OT. Tomas Hertl scored the game-winner.
Game 2: 4-2 Pittsburgh
After jumping ahead early with a goal just minutes into the first period from Olli Maatta, the Penguins didn't stop. They'd go ahead 3-0 in the second but the Sharks narrowed the margin in the third, pulling to within one goal on goals from Patrick Marleau and Brent Burns, but an empty-netter from Cullen with less than one minute left sealed the victory.
Game 3: 3-0 San Jose
It was a fairly easy victory for the Sharks who put up a goal in each period (Melker Karlsson, Couture, Burns). Martin Jones had the shutout in goal with 35 saves.
Game 4: 3-0 Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh evened the series with a shutout of its own, as Marc-Andre Fleury made 28 saves to record the shutout. Just like Game 3, the winning team had a goal scored in each period (Eric Fehr, Evgeni Malkin, Chris Kunitz).
STANLEY CUP: Fortune, talent finally meet for Penguins
Game 5: 6-2 Pittsburgh
The Penguins pulled to within one game of raising the Stanley Cup by blitzing the Sharks in the first period with four goals (two apiece from Patric Hornqvist and Carl Hagelin).
Game 6: 4-0 San Jose
The Sharks force a Game 7 with the second shutout of the series by Jones. San Jose got goals from Marleau, Joel Ward, Thornton and Joe Pavelski.
Game 7: 4-1 Pittsburgh
The Penguins pulled out the victory in the pressure-packed game to win the Stanley Cup. They jumped ahead 2-0 with goals from Crosby and Tom Kuhnhackl. Couture brought the Sharks to within a goal in the second period but Malkin and Hornqvist answered early in the third to put away the game and series.
Franchise Hockey Manager 2
The development team behind Franchise Hockey Manager 2, the latest version of the PC hockey strategy game, knew they wanted to simulate the Stanley Cup Finals in order to predict who would hoist Lord Stanley’s Cup. In order to so do, though, they needed to put the engine through its paces and ensure the best chance of a correct outcome.
Instead of simply running a single series, the development team ran 30 simulations of the final series. They used FHM2's current database, with some modifications to reflect existing injuries and player performance through the first three rounds of the playoffs. If they learned anything, it’s that the 2016 Stanley Cup Finals will be close. Very close.
The San Jose Sharks won 53 percent of the time, with 16 wins in 30 simulations. Of the 167 games were played, the Sharks won 89 and Pittsburgh 78. San Jose outscored the Penguins 524-474.
That’s not the whole story. For example, Pittsburgh appears to have an advantage in a longer series:
— 13 percent of the simulations ended in four-game sweeps, all in San Jose's favor.
— The series ended in five games 33 percent of the time, with each team winning half of those series.
— The series ended in six games 37 percent of the time, with Pittsburgh winning 55 percent of those series.
— The series ended in seven games 17 percent of the time, with Pittsburgh winning 60 percent of those series.
A high-scoring series significantly favors the Sharks: If the series averaged more than six goals per game, San Jose won 70 percent of the time. Pittsburgh won 59 percent of the time if the series averaged less than six goals/game, 63 percent of the time if it was fewer than five.
Game 1 results surprisingly were a poor predictor of the rest of the series as the Game 1 winner only won the series 53 percent of the time. It wasn't even advantageous for San Jose to steal home-ice advantage by winning the opener; the Sharks only won 56 percent of the time after doing that.
Using all of these simulations, the FHM 2 team created its best prediction of what each game of the series will look like. The simulation which followed the overall pattern most closely was the 14th one, where the Sharks won in six games, outscoring Pittsburgh 23-15.
Game 1: 5-4 San Jose
The Sharks win with two quick goals midway through the third period to reverse a 4-3 deficit. Shaky game for Matt Murray, who only saw 26 shots to Martin Jones' 31. First star was Joe Thornton, with two goals, including the tying goal in the third; Sidney Crosby had a goal and two assists for the Penguins.
Game 2: 2-1 San Jose
Sharks steal both games in Pittsburgh when Logan Couture scores with just more than a minute remaining in the first overtime. Murray bounces back with a strong 28-save performance. Both teams appear hesistant to open up things; the shot total is only 21-16 Pittsburgh after the end of regulation time. Matt Nieto returned to the San Jose lineup after missing the first game with an upper-body injury.
Game 3: 3-1 San Jose
Back in California, the Sharks take a commanding 3-0 lead in a game they dominated, outshooting the Penguins 41-25. Couture is outstanding, getting the go-ahead goal (and eventual winner) midway through the second and going 20-7 on faceoffs.
Game 4: 5-4 Pittsburgh
The Penguins stay alive by holding off a late rally. Pittsburgh led through two and then scored twice early in the third, but didn't inspire much confidence for Game 5 when they nearly handed the lead back. The Sharks again dominated on shots, 39-16.
Game 5: 4-0 Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh returns home and has their best game of the series, outshooting the Sharks 32-23 and getting a shutout for Murray. Penguin rookie Oskar Sundqvist gets into the series and picks up a pair of first-period goals.
Game 6: 4-0 San Jose
The Sharks win the Cup by reversing the result of the last game. San Jose opened a 2-0 lead in the first and never looked back, limiting the Penguins to seven shots in the second and five in the third. Brent Burns had an outstanding game, with a goal and an assist, six shots, a pair of blocked shots, and four hits, and was awarded the Conn Smythe Trophy, finishing with 26 points in 24 playoff games. The Cup-winning goal went to Tomas Hertl, who opened the scoring with his first of two goals in the game.
NHL 16 is now free with an EA Access subscription on Xbox One, while Franchise Hockey Manager 2 is currently on sale for $20.
Bryan Wiedey posts sports gaming news and analysis daily at Pastapadre.com, has co-founded the new site HitThePass.com, hosts the Press Row Podcast, and be reached on Twitter @Pastapadre .