The Anaheim Ducks were building toward a Stanley Cup, but another Game 7 loss and an uncertain offseason could set the franchise back years.
General manager Bob Murray has already fired coach Bruce Boudreau, and his fire-and-brimstone press conference afterward suggests more changes are coming, or he will certainly be trying to make them.
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He has one of the best rosters in the NHL, and he had one of the best coaches. It will not be easy for him to enter the 2016-17 season with both, especially if he makes more changes just for the sake of doing so.
The Ducks have improved their ability to possess the puck each of the past four seasons, slowly turning a team that won a lot of games in unsustainable fashion into a true powerhouse contender.
In 2012-13, the Ducks were below average in puck possession (less than 48 percent of the shot attempts at even strength) but had one of the top save percentages in the league. The following year they improved to 50 percent in Corsi For percentage, but won 54 games in part because the entire team shot nearly 10 percent at even strength (eight percent is typically the league average).
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Last season, the Ducks moved closer to being an upper-echelon puck possession, and came within one win of reaching the Stanley Cup Final. This year, they became one.
The Ducks finished the regular season tied for fourth in the NHL in score-adjusted CF%, behind only the Kings, Penguins and Stars. The postseason results did not match the process, and the Ducks lost to the Predators, one of the two teams tied for fourth along with them, in a coin-flip seven-game series.
So Murray made it clear that Boudreau is a good coach and this isn’t all on him, etc., etc., but he also doesn’t want him to coach the Ducks anymore. Replacing a top-10 coach with someone who either is a top-10 coach or could become one is a hard thing to do.
The Capitals had one of the best coaches in the NHL (Boudreau), and burned through two-and-a-half years of Alex Ovechkin’s prime and two coaches before being lucky enough to have Barry Trotz available. The Canucks had one of the best coaches in the NHL (Alain Vigneault) and are on their second coach since, with worse results. The Penguins had a good coach (Dan Bylsma) and went through a downgrade before Mike Sullivan helped revived them.
Unless something changes, there are no clear-cut great candidates available. This has not been a busy year for coaching changes in the NHL, in part because the previous two were. There isn’t a Barry Trotz or a Lindy Ruff or a Todd McLellan out there. Well, there is one guy in that group, but Murray just fired him.
The other issue for the Ducks is the roster. This was always going to be an eventful summer, because there are so many players who need new contracts.
There are a handful of unrestricted free agents up front (David Perron, Jamie McGinn, Chris Stewart, Shawn Horcoff and Mike Santorelli) who were all newcomers this season. Forward depth was once a great strength for the Ducks, but Kyle Palmieri scored 30 goals this season for the Devils, not the Ducks, and with all of these UFAs, the depth will have to be rebuilt. Top prospect Nick Ritchie will likely be counted on, but he also had four points in 33 games for the Ducks this season.
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The tougher decisions could be the restricted free agents. Defensemen Hampus Lindholm and Sami Vatanen, forward Rickard Rakell and goaltender Frederik Andersen are all RFAs.
Lindholm is an elite player, and his ascension is a huge part of Anaheim’s puck possession improvement. Vatanen and Rakell are young and dynamic, something the Ducks desperately need to complement the veteran core.
During the Friday press conference, Murray said, “At this point in time, I'm not very fond of long-term contracts.” The agents for Rakell, Vatanen and especially Lindholm probably didn’t enjoy that line.
Andersen’s departure has been considered something of a foregone conclusion because the Ducks have already signed John Gibson to a three-year contract. Murray could trade the negotiating rights to Andersen before July 1, if a team is willing to part with something better than the RFA draft pick compensation package.
Rakell, Vatanen and Lindholm should all be in Orange County next season, if only because NHL general managers are too afraid to deal with the long-term consequences of RFA offer sheets becoming a normal and consistent tool at everyone’s disposal.
So what other changes can Murray make? He has a pretty strong record of producing team-friendly contracts with young players. His mistakes have come with veterans.
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One of Murray’s best strengths has been his ability to offload his mistakes, particularly defensemen who were not as good as his young stable of blueliners. If Murray is able to move Clayton Stoner’s terrible contract this summer, he deserves to be a finalist for GM of the year again. The Ducks have enough young talent on defense to deal Kevin Bieksa as well, but that is probably unlikely.
Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry and Ryan Kesler all have no-movement clauses in their contracts. If Murray is serious about moving one of them, he could call Doug Wilson in San Jose and ask how that works out.
If one of the “big three” forwards does not move, and Murray can’t shed Stoner’s contract, then he might look to deal one of his young defensemen. Playing those young defensemen more and guys like Stoner less is the reason why Anaheim has become an elite puck-possession team, but Murray might survey the free-agent market and decide the best way to help his forward depth is to deal from his strength.
Murray has many more hits than misses on his resume. He’s one of the better GMs in the league, but this summer is going to be one of his biggest challenges to date.
The odds are already against him not downgrading at head coach, and he’s going to have a lot of work to do to ensure the roster is as talented as the 2015-16 version as well.