The Blues and Sabres, though miles apart in the 2017-18 standings, entered the offseason with a similar appetite for change. Their attempts to course correct from disappointing finishes collided late Sunday when the teams announced Ryan O'Reilly had been traded to St. Louis as part of a four-player, two-pick July 1 blockbuster.
It was a deal several months in the making, Blues general manager Doug Armstrong revealed, and one that should ultimately benefit the short- and long-term goals of both clubs.
2018 FREE AGENCY: Tracker | Winners and losers
The center-needy Blues added to their contending core and the Sabres gained future assets as GM Jason Botterill continues to put his own stamp on the roster, now all but ridding it of predecessor Tim Murray's influence.
At its core, the trade of O'Reilly, a good-to-very good top-six forward under contract for five seasons, is a rare occurrence in today's NHL, where most players like him are dealt in the final year or two before free agency, if at all. He was one of the few centers available to teams left out of the John Tavares sweepstakes and thus highly coveted around the league, so in that basic sense, the Blues are immediate winners of the trade, regardless of cost.
Let's dive in to the grades.
Blues received from Buffalo:
Forward Ryan O'Reilly
Sabres received from St. Louis:
Forwards Patrik Berglund, Vladimir Sobotka, Tage Thompson, 2019 first-round pick, 2021 second-round pick
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Blues: A
The Blues entered July 1 in desperate need of center help. They had yet to fill the void left by the Paul Stastny trade at the deadline, then depth pivot Kyle Brodziak walked away to join the Oilers in free agency. The apple of Armstrong's eye would have been Tavares, but when the Blues weren't included among the former Islanders captain's top six finalists, they were left with a thin pool of free-agent solutions, including Stastny, Joe Thornton and Tyler Bozak.
O'Reilly became the de facto top prize on the market.
St. Louis ended up signing Bozak, paying him handsomely and above his value — par for the course in free agency. The addition would have seemed to take the Blues out of the market for O'Reilly, and alone would have been underwhelming. But combined, Armstrong has rebuilt the Blues down the middle. Bozak's cap hit befits the role of a No. 2 center, but O'Reilly should bump the former Maple Leaf to the third line on the depth chart behind Brayden Schenn.
O'Reilly, a veteran of 651 NHL games, isn't a high-end offensive producer; his career highs in goals (28) and points (64) came in 2013-14. But he does give the Blues a top-tier center to pair with Vladimir Tarasenko, playing big minutes on both the power play and penalty kill. He should benefit from better linemates in St. Louis. He's also a face-off wizard, winning 60 percent of his draws last year — tops in the NHL — while setting a league record for the most face-off wins in any single season in history (1,274).
The cost wasn't cheap, but it's worth commending Armstrong for getting lottery protection that 2019 first-rounder in case all goes south next season. Thompson, drafted 26th overall in 2016, fell behind Robert Thomas, a center, speedy wing Jordan Kyrou and 2017 draft steal Klim Kostin in the Blues' prospect pool, and keeping all three blue-chippers bumps this grade up to full marks.
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Sabres: B+
That O'Reilly became something of a poster child for the futility in April with his candid but controversial comments about falling out of love with hockey was unfair, but he was one of Buffalo's most tradable assets whose return could further advance Botterill's rebuild. His availability was that simple, and the return should prove worth it.
O'Reilly, 27, is more aligned in age with the Blues' contending core than the young Sabres, who are in the process of building around Jack Eichel (21), Sam Reinhart (22), Casey Mittelstadt (19) and Rasmus Dahlin (18). Thompson, a 20-year-old rookie who made his NHL debut last year, can be added to the cupboard, and Botterill continues to amass draft picks — now with three first-rounders in 2019, assuming both the Sharks and Blues make the playoffs.
The draft picks were key to any deal involving O'Reilly. Before the draft, the Sabres reportedly sought Montreal's No. 3 overall pick, a non-starter for Habs GM Marc Bergevin despite the franchise's desperate need for a center. And Thompson, a big 6-5 winger revered for his shot, could eventually become a top-six player in Buffalo, where there's an immediately for him to prove himself, unlike St. Louis.
In Berglund and Sobotka, the Sabres acquire a pair of versatile if unremarkable 30-year-old forwards. Combined, the two are due to make about the same as O'Reilly in 2018-19. Berglund is under contract for four more seasons and Sobotka, who returned to the Blues in 2017 after a stint in the KHL, is signed through 2019-20.
All told, it's a solid haul in exchange for O'Reilly. Botterill could have taken it over the top had he convinced the Blues to include Thomas, Kyrou or Kostin, but the three were evidently the non-starters Armstrong referenced when he said talks fell apart early Sunday before the sides agrees to "add and subtract some pieces that made everyone comfortable in the end." The Sabres also were faced with the midnight deadline to pay O'Reilly a $7.5 million bonus. They could have eaten the money and continued to ask for a king's ransom, but there's no telling what the market might have looked like later this summer or at next season's deadline.
Buffalo can now turn the page. It's up to Botterill to make the most of these picks and prospects, something Murray was unable to do.
