Sports are a results-based business.
No matter what goes on between the lines or on the ice, fans, players, executives and owners care about one thing — getting the win. And if that happens, a lot of other things become a whole lot easier to overlook.
That’s how it’s gone these days for three teams — the Rangers, Stars and Canadiens. Montreal and New York are riding impressive 9-1-0 streaks over their last 10 games going into Jan. 5. The Stars are slightly worse, having gone 8-1-1 over their last 10.
But while wins tell us definitively what’s happened in the past, they don’t do as nice a job at predicting what will come next.
For that, we take a look at the process. And generally, best process for long-term success in the NHL is to win the possession battle at even-strength, especially in close games.
Keep in mind that possession numbers aren’t everything. And don’t forget that over small samples, teams can have results that differ wildly from what you’d expect based on possession. However, it is a good opportunity to see if things have actually improved, or if it’s just been a swing of luck.
And in that regard, we see three different stories for the three teams. So here is a look at the team's Fenwick For numbers (FF) since Dec. 1. All numbers courtesy of war-on-ice.com and stats.hockeyanalysis.com.
Rangers: FF Close 54.2 (13 games), Season Close 50.9, FF 51.9, Season 49.9
The Rangers have been fortunate with a high shooting percentage this season , contributing to a high PDO. With that said, they've been a much better team over the last month. As you can see, the Rangers' Fenwick close is 54.2 over that 13-game span, which is much better than their season number.
And remember: That season number includes those 13 games. In the 23 games in October and November, the Rangers' Fenwick close was 49.7.
The possession boost may be partially attributed to schedule — the Rangers have faced some of the weaker possession teams over that stretch, including the Oilers, Sabres, Hurricanes and Devils. But good teams are supposed to beat up on lesser opponents, and that’s what the Rangers have done.
Now they need to keep it going against the good teams. That starts Wednesday in Anaheim, followed by games against the Kings, Sharks, Islanders and Bruins (though Boston isn’t quite Boston this year). If the Rangers can get past this stretch with a winning record, it may be time to look at the Rangers as a contender in the East once again.
Canadiens: FF Close 49.8 (14 games) Season Close 50.2, FF 47.1, Season 49.5
Other than the Rangers, no team has been better over its last 10 games than the Canadiens. But have the Habs played better at even-strength than they before? The possession numbers don't indicate it.
Since Dec. 1, the Habs have a Fenwick number of 47.1, compared to a season number of 49.5. In close games, it’s better — the Habs' Fenwick close is 49.8, compared to a season close number of 50.2. But possession-wise, Montreal has been no better over this 10-4-0 run than they were over the season. In fact, they've been worse.
During the 10-game run? Montreal’s FF is 46.8 with a Close of 50.7. So it is slightly better, at least in close situations.
Also of note — Carey Price has a 5v5 save percentage of 94.4. That can happen over small stretches. But as good as Price is, numbers like that don't persist for a whole season.
Montreal has also seen its shooting percentage rise to 9.03. That's fifth in the league.
Teams certainly can outperform their possession numbers over small stretches, so this isn’t crazy. But hold off on printing Stanley Cup Final tickets in Montreal — the Canadiens may just be a decent team that appears with a run of hot shooting and goalie play.
Stars: FF Close 54.3 (14 games) Season Close 51.0, FF 54.1, Season 51.4
The stats community’s darlings coming into the season, the Stars didn’t exactly have the best of starts. Not only was their record not so hot, but their possession numbers weren’t really there, either. In October and November, Dallas had a FF Close of 50.3, which was in the bottom half of the league.
But since Dec. 1, things have gotten better. In close situations Dallas’ FF is 54.3, sixth-best. In all situations, it’s 54.1, which is also sixth-best.
The difference? The Stars' best players are doing a bit better when it comes to possession — Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn and Jason Spezza have all seen boosts in their Corsi numbers at even strength. But they were positive players before.
Instead, look to the rest of the team. Defenseman Jason Demers, acquired in late November, has a Corsi For percentage of 58.5. That’s best on the team over this 14-game run. Alex Goligoski, was at 50.3. Over the 14-game stretch, he’s at 55.7.
Up and down the roster, most players have seen at least a small tick up in their possession numbers. That adds up quickly.
And as the process has improved, so have the results. The Stars are 8-1-1 in their last ten games, and are just three points out of a playoff spot.
Like the Rangers, some of that is due to competition. And Dallas still has to prove it’s more of the team that people liked before the season and the team that’s been playing recently, than the team that struggled in October and November. Still, things are looking up in the Lone Star state.