Ever have a window that just won’t shut because there’s something wrong with the frame? It goes down, but not all the way — that little bend in the fiberglass keeps it open, even though you want to get it all the way down.
That’s where the New York Rangers are right now. It’s tough to say their window to win a Stanley Cup is completely shut, but it was closing two years ago, and now, it’s just about there.
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That bend in the frame is 34-year-old goalie Henrik Lundqvist. The team has done everything it can to win while he's still in net, and they’ve gotten close — two conference finals appearances and another in the Stanley Cup Final. A postseason berth in every season but one since he got the call in 2005-06. A Presidents' Trophy. He’s been a pillar of consistency and the biggest reason the Rangers have been a serious contender in the last decade, specifically the last five years.
"I feel as motivated, energized as I did 10 years ago, to play this game, to try to be better, to help the team to win," Lundqvist said last month. And I think that’s where it starts for all of us players. How much do you want it? How much do you want to work to improve as a player? And I feel that as much today as, like I said, 10 years ago."
It’s hard to not believe him. Lundqvist is playing as well as ever. But the Rangers have given up a lot to win with this core, and now, it doesn't seem like that will happen. They enter Saturday’s game against the Penguins down 1-0 and were prohibitive underdogs to win the series in the first place.
If the window isn't shut, it's being jammed closed, with Lundqvist desperately trying to hold it open.
How they got here
The salary cap that came as a result of the 2004-05 lockout actually helped the Rangers. They had been so used to throwing money and years at veterans for past performance, and after losing their 1990s core, they struggled, missing the playoffs from 1997-98 until the year after the lockout.
So when that wasn’t an option anymore, New York adjusted and did a much better job developing its own talent. Lundqvist was a seventh-round pick in 2000. They’ve drafted (or signed) and developed much of their current core — Derek Stepan, Mats Zuccarello, Kevin Hayes, Chris Kreider, JT Miller, Marc Staal, Dan Girardi (more on the latter two later).
The Rangers acquired leading goalscorer Derick Brassard, captain Ryan McDonagh, their best defenseman, and steady blue-liner Kevin Klein through a series of trades over the last five years. All three worked out better than anyone could have hoped.
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But New York hasn't had a first-round pick in three years, and won't have one this year. That's a result of several other trades — one to acquire Keith Yandle, another for Martin St. Louis, and the first in a big package for Rick Nash. They all came when the window was opening, or firmly open — Nash was the goal-scorer they were missing in 2012-13, St. Louis was the veteran offensive piece needed for a stretch run in 2014, and Yandle was the puck-moving defenseman that could get the Presidents' Trophy winners over the top.
It never happened.
And unlike a team that’s been a consistent winner — the Blackhawks, namely — the Rangers haven’t made tough decisions when it comes to homegrown players. They've acquired talent and kept existing talent, even if they really couldn't. That's costing them now, and with just $187,000 in cap space this year, it will hold them back for the next few.
Weighed down in the back
Yandle led Rangers who have played at least half the team’s games in even-strength Corsi percentage and Corsi relative, so he means more to New York when he's on the ice than any of his teammates. He leads the Rangers in power play points and is the team’s first defenseman since Brian Leetch in 2001-02 to have 40-plus assists in a season.
The Rangers gave up one of their top prospects, Anthony Duclair, who looks like a budding star after scoring 20 goals for the Coyotes at age 20 this year, and a first round pick, to get Yandle.
This summer, New York probably can't sign him, since it’s already paying two players money that should be going to him. Defenseman Dan Girardi inked a 6-year, $33 million extension in March of 2014, just days before the trade deadline. He's been one of the worst defensemen in the NHL this season.
“(Dan’s) dedication to this club, as a leader both on the ice and in the locker room, is invaluable to this team,” GM Glen Sather said at the time. “We are happy to have been able to ensure that he will continue to wear the Blueshirt.”
The Rangers gave Girardi that deal in part because they didn’t want to move a top-4 defenseman when they were competing for a Stanley Cup, and in part because of loyalty to an organizational lifer signed as an undrafted free agent who played hard. The Rangers did reach the Cup that year, losing to the Kings in five games.
But Girardi was never going to earn that deal. New York would have taken a few good years. They didn't even get that. His 41.7 even-strength Corsi is last on the Rangers and sixth worst in the NHL of anyone who’s played at least 50 games. Girardi never moved or possessed the puck well, but now, he’s one of the worst defensemen in the NHL as his other skills — shot blocking, physicality, “grit,” because some consider that a skill — have eroded.
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The Rangers followed it up with a deal nearly as bad 10 months later, signing defenseman Marc Staal to a 6-year, $34 million contract. His game hasn’t deteriorated quite as quickly — his 45.3 Corsi is only fourth worst on the Rangers — but he's playing at a third-pair level at top dollar.
Girardi becomes a free agent in 2020-21; Staal the year after. They’ll carry a combined cap hit of more than $11 million, top-pair money, and are playing at barely replacement level, if that.
Lundqvist isn’t the problem (sort of)
In the salary cap era, it’s hard to pay goalies the kind of money the Rangers pay Lundqvist, who turned 34 in March. Fortunately, he’s one who is actually worth it, and his game hasn’t taken a hit in recent years.
Per War-On-Ice, Lundqvist posted the best even-strength adjusted save percentage of his career in 2015-16. His second best was 2012-13. His game isn’t going anywhere, and the Rangers will need that to have any hope of making the playoffs, let alone winning a Stanley Cup.
Trouble is, his contract carries an $8.5 million cap hit through 2020-21, and it hamstrings the rest of the roster.
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This year, Hayes, Miller and Kreider, who all come with flaws but have been important pieces over the last two-plus years, become restricted free agents this summer. Yandle is an unrestricted free agent, as is Eric Staal, acquired from the Hurricanes in March.
The NHL's salary cap is expected to rise to $74 million next season, and they'll get Dan Boyle's $4.5 million hit off the books, as well Yandle, most likely. But new deals (and raises) are in order for Kreider, Miller and Hayes.
The cupboard isn't bare. Defensemen Dylan McIlrath, a first-round pick in 2010, has made major strides and has possessed the puck well in his time in the NHL this season. Russian prospect Pavel Buchnevich, 20, is expected to make an impact next season.
But the Rangers are lightyears behind the Penguins and Capitals, and are moving in the opposite direction. Lundqvist, the man they've shelled out so much to win for, is their only hope.