For the most part, the playoff field in the Eastern Conference is pretty set.
It would be a major upset for the top seven teams to miss out. Sportsclubsstats.com puts the odds of the first wild-card team, the Capitals, at 99.2 percent. That’s not a shock — the Capitals have a nine point edge on the Bruins, who sit in the second wild-card spot, and 11 points on the Panthers. With the charity point and just 18 games for the Panthers remaining, that deficit is going to near impossible to make up.
But the Bruins are in the thick of that mess of teams scraping for the last spot. They own 71 points and have 20 games remaining. Meanwhile the Panthers have 69 points with the aforementioned 18 games left.
Then comes the most interesting team of all, the Senators, with 67 points and 20 games left. Sportsclubstats puts the Senators odds of the postseason at 21.8 percent prior to Wednesday, next after Boston at 68.6 (the Panthers are at 7.3 percent and the Flyers at 2.7 percent).
When I broke down this race a few weeks ago, I mentioned the Senators' improvement in possession since they fired Paul MacLean but also conceded their odds of making the playoffs weren’t great, especially since they were down to third-string goalie Andrew Hammond.
Again, prior to MacLean’s firing on Dec. 8, this is what the Senators did in 5v5 situations according to war-on-ice broken down by shot attempts (SAT), unblocked shot attempts (USAT) shooting percentage, save percentage and scoring chances for and against per 60 minutes: 47.7 SAT%, 45.4 USAT%, 93.1 SV%, 7.1 SH%, 25.0 SCF/60, 26.7 SCA/60.
And their shot attempt numbers in close situations: 46.2 SAT%, 44.0 USAT%, 93.5 SV%, 6.7 SH%, 24.0 SCF/60, 26.9 SCA/60.
That’s not good. The Senators weren’t possessing the puck well, giving up a bunch of scoring chances. But they were 11-11-5 and surviving because of excellent goalie play from Craig Anderson. The process was lousy, though, and it’s quite possible they would have cratered at some point — possibly when Anderson went down.
But things have changed under Dave Cameron. From Dec. 8 through March 3: 51.3 SAT%, 49.6 USAT%, 92.6 SV%, 8.9 SH%, 27.5 SCF/60, 24.5 SCA/60.
And the shot attempt numbers in close situations: 50.9 SAT%, 49.0 USAT%, 92.5 SV%, 8.4 SHO%, 28.7 SCF/60, 26.3 SCA/60.
The possession numbers have drastically improved, though the Senators do have a habit of getting shots blocked. With those improved possession numbers, the Sens have seen a huge improvement in scoring chances for and against. Look at that again — the Senators are picking up an average of 2 1/2 more scoring chances per game, and allowing about two less. That’s a huge swing.
There had not been a huge change in the standings though. Under Cameron the Senators are 17-12-8, which is an improvement for sure. But that’s also with a 7-1-2 stretch over their last 10 games, despite starting a non-inspiring goalie in Hammond (6-0-1, .957 save percentage).
Hammond will falter — he owned a 3.51 goals-against average and a .898 save percentage in the AHL this season. But Anderson is back and ready to step in when that happens.
Obviously, the odds are still stacked against the Senators based on the point totals alone. But they are playing better than the Flyers. The Panthers may be down to Dan Ellis in goal. The Bruins, 3-5-2 in their last 10, are without David Krejci and lost Brett Connolly before he played a game. Will that be enough to get the Senators a surprise spot in the postseason?
Maybe not, but in early December, few thought we’d be having this conversation. That’s a pretty nice turnaround for the Senators.