There is less than one quarter left for the NHL regular season. The surprise team of the season, the expansion Vegas Golden Knights, have all but secured their playoff spot. Based on AccuScore simulations, their playoff probability is 99 percent.
But how about other teams? Who will get in to play for the Stanley Cup? Let's take a look at the updated NHL playoff picture as of March 8.
Each week, AccuScore will update its 2018 Stanley Cup playoffs forecast by simulating the remainder of the NHL season 10,000 times to predict win totals, division winners and probabilities of reaching the playoffs on the road to the Stanley Cup. Below are the probabilities and Vegas odds of making the NHL playoffs and how they have changed.
MORE: Stanley Cup 2018 betting odds
AccuScore's odds to make NHL playoffs
Probability vs. weekly % change
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 100.00 | 0 |
| Boston Bruins | 100.00 | 0 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 100.00 | 0 |
| Winnipeg Jets | 100.00 | 0 |
| Nashville Predators | 100.00 | 0 |
| Vegas Golden Knights | 100.00 | 0 |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | 99.67 | 0 |
| Washington Capitals | 99.18 | 0 |
| Minnesota Wild | 98.03 | 0 |
| Philadelphia Flyers | 94.79 | 0 |
| San Jose Sharks | 91.05 | 0 |
| Anaheim Ducks | 88.27 | 0 |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | 79.36 | 0 |
| Dallas Stars | 78.81 | 0 |
| Los Angeles Kings | 65.56 | 0 |
| New Jersey Devils | 64.25 | 0 |
| Florida Panthers | 45.99 | 0 |
| Colorado Avalanche | 37.30 | 0 |
| St. Louis Blues | 23.42 | 0 |
| Calgary Flames | 17.37 | 0 |
| Carolina Hurricanes | 10.00 | 0 |
| New York Islanders | 4.62 | 0 |
| New York Rangers | 1.81 | 0 |
| Detroit Red Wings | 0.33 | 0 |
| Chicago Blackhawks | 0.19 | 0 |
Eliminated from playoff contention (0.00%): Buffalo Sabres, Montreal Canadiens, Ottawa Senators, Edmonton Oilers, Vancouver Canucks, Arizona Coyotes
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Eastern Conference playoff picture
Right now the last three teams above playoff line are the Philadelphia Flyers, the New Jersey Devils and the Columbus Blue Jackets. All these teams have played 67 games, while the Florida Panthers — two points behind Columbus — have played only 63 games.
In simulations, current standings looks to be same at the end of the season as well. Even though the Flyers have lost their last four games, their postseason probability is over 96 percent. Season simulations show the Blue Jackets' playoffs probability at 78 percent. New Jersey’s chances to reach playoffs are hovering around 64 percent.
The top challenger especially for the Devils is Florida. Currently, their probability to reach playoffs is 46 percent having won seven out of their last 10. For other teams in Eastern Conference, the playoffs will be a long shot. Currently four points behind the last wild card spot is the Carolina Hurricanes, whose chances sit at 10 percent.
The Tampa Bay Lightning, currently atop the Atlantic Division, hold an 88 percent probability to win the division.
Competition in the the Metropolitan Division is much tougher. The two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins have a 45 percent chances to clinch the division title. The Washington Capitals are their top challenger at 35 percent. The Flyers are also in the mix for the division title with a 15 percent chance.
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Western Conference playoff picture
So far, there has been one team above all others in the Western Conference. The defending conference champion Nashville Predators are making another strong push for the Stanley Cup. Their probability to win their division is over 80 percent, and is only going up during their nine-game win streak. Ther main challenger is the Winnipeg Jets, who hold a 20 percent chance to win the division.
The wild-card race is very tight. Currently, Anaheim, San Jose, Dallas, Los Angeles, Colorado, Calgary and St. Louis are within five points in standings, with the first four above the playoffs line.
Of that field, the San Jose Sharks (82 percent) and Anaheim Ducks (76 percent) have best chances at the postseason. The Stars occupy the first wild card position and have 61 percent chance to reach playoffs; the Kings are the other wild card team, with a postseason probability just under 50 percent.
The Avalanche are the main challengers for Dallas and L.A. Their postseason chances sit around 20 percent. St. Louis has played in the playoffs six years in a row. As of now, it looks like that streak will be snapped with only a 12 percent chance to get in.
AccuScore's NHL playoff probabilities will be updated on a weekly basis.