Welcome to the Sporting News’ NHL power rankings. This is an attempt to judge where each of the 30 NHL teams rank at this juncture of the season. No, it’s not going to mirror the league standings. Yes, there will be some advanced stats considered when analyzing the teams. No, it will not mirror the “Corsi standings.”
Long-term injuries to key players will be a factor. A team enjoying an unsustainable run of luck will be a factor. Common sense, in the form of “hey, this team is probably better/worse than its record indicates” might even come into play.
It’s early in the season, but as it progresses, what has happened in the past three or four games is probably not going to be more important than the past 30 or 40. There’s no perfect way to analyze and predict hockey, but if there is one thing that has been proven, it is that there are better ways to predict success, particularly in the postseason, than just pointing to the team with more points.
There will be plenty of disagreements with the rankings, but hopefully a closer look at a few teams each week will provide some insight as well.
MORE: Best No. 1 and 2 overall duos in draft history | Week 1 Power Rankings: Ducks panic move would be a mistake
Stats key: GF - goals for; GA - goals against; PP% - power-play percentage; PK% - penalty-kill percentage; CF% - Corsi for percentage ; PDO - even strength shooting percentage plus even strength save percentage
30. Avalanche (3-7-1)
27 GF, 33 GA, 19.6 PP%, 79.5 PK%, 40.3 CF%, 100.69 PDO
29. Flames (3-8-1)
27 GF, 49 GA, 14.7 PP%, 76.9 PK%, 49.3 CF%, 93.64 PDO
The Flames defied analytical wisdom last season, securing the final spot in the postseason despite being one of the worst puck possession teams in the league. They finished among the league leaders in shooting percentage at even strength and spent the least amount of time shorthanded, and reached the second round after knocking off the Canucks in a matchup that was pretty close to the 15th- and 16th-best teams in the postseason.
When the season was over, the Flames were expected to be the latest team to overachieve and then crash, like the Avalanche did last season and the Maple Leafs the year before. Adding Dougie Hamilton and Michael Frolik was supposed to help mitigate some of that expected regression, but to this point the Flames have been a disaster.
T.J. Brodie missed the first nine games, so adding Hamilton and subtracting Brodie was pretty close to a push on defense. The issue there is, in part, the distribution of minutes. The Flames have three of the best 20-25 defensemen in the league, and one defenseman that is playing more than 25 minutes per game, but that guy is not Hamilton, Brodie or Mark Giordano. Dennis Wideman had a huge offensive season in 2014-15, fueled by a career-high shooting percentage, but he and Kris Russell have been possession sinkholes and the puck is going in with them on the ice more than it did last year.
As a team, the Flames have improved their ability to possess the puck (in a very small sample), but a lot of that shooting good fortune has disappeared. While the goaltending was about league average last season, that too was probably an overachievement given the players available. The Flames tried to start the season with three goaltenders, and none of them have a save percentage better than .868 at this point.
Inflated shooting percentages can lead to misevaluation. Every Flames forward that played at least 30 games last season, except for face-puncher Brandon Bollig, shot better than nine percent. Depth guys look a lot better when they’re shooting 13 or 15 percent.
There are some excellent young players in Calgary. Sean Monahan, Sam Bennett and Michael Backlund could become a fantastic 1-2-3 punch at center, though Backlund should probably be playing a little more. Those top three defensemen are great, but Wideman/Russell are overvalued. Johnny Gaudreau is wonderful and will not shoot 4.3 percent the rest of the season.
The Flames have also spent the seventh-most time shorthanded this season. Being a bottom-three possession team and the least shorthanded team was one of the most remarkable/unsustainable/unrepeatable feats in many seasons. They’re also blocking about three shots less per game.
The idea was that Hamilton and the young talent up front would mask some of the deficiencies in the team’s depth and the style of play that yields the puck too often. They need to see what it looks like with Brodie and a full-strength defense corps first, but it doesn’t look good in Calgary.
28. Blue Jackets (2-10-0)
25 GF, 46 GA, 17.0 PP%, 71.0 PK%, 50.0 CF%, 94.75 PDO
27. Maple Leafs (1-7-2)
20 GF, 33 GA, 7.4 PP%, 73.7 PK%, 53.6 CF%, 98.36 PDO
26. Oilers (4-8-0)
32 GF, 39 GA, 22.5 PP%, 78.9 PK%, 46.9 CF%, 99.04 PDO
25. Canucks (5-2-4)
31 GF, 25 GA, 20.0 PP%, 90.0 PK%, 46.7 CF%, 100.84 PDO
24. Flyers (4-4-2)
20 GF, 29 GA, 12.5 PP%, 76.2 PK%, 49.2 CF%, 100.18 PDO
23. Sabres (4-7-0)
25 GF, 34 GA, 22.7 PP%, 71.4 PK%, 52.6 CF%, 94.45 PDO
22. Coyotes (5-5-1)
30 GF, 32 GA, 11.6 PP%, 82.9 PK%, 47.8 CF%, 101.54 PDO
21. Panthers (5-4-2)
32 GF, 23 GA, 23.8 PP%, 77.3 PK%, 48.3 CF%, 104.25 PDO
20. Red Wings (5-5-1)
28 GF, 30 GA, 28 GF, 30 GA, 20.5 PP%, 82.5 PK%, 46.1 CF%, 101.45 PDO
19. Hurricanes (5-7-0)
26 GF, 34 GA, 11.6 PP%, 79.3 PK%, 54.6 CF%, 96.83 PDO
18. Devils (6-4-1)
26 GF, 28 GA, 23.1 PP%, 75.0 PK%, 50.2 CF%, 98.5 PDO
17. Bruins (6-3-1)
39 GF, 31 GA, 35.3 PP%, 75.0 PK%, 49.6 CF%, 100.52 PDO
16. Ducks (2-7-2)
14 GF, 28 GA, 9.4 PP%, 89.7 PK%, 50.3 CF%, 101.61 PDO
15. Senators (5-4-2)
33 GF, 34 GA, 13.5 PP%, 75.5%, 48.9 PDO, 102.01 PDO
14. Islanders (6-2-3)
35 GA, 27 GA, 28.6 PP%, 92.3 PK%, 47.9 CF%, 100.07 PDO
13. Sharks (6-5-0)
30 GA, 28 GF, 15.6 PP%, 76.9 PK%, 48.9 CF%, 99.74 PDO
12. Penguins (7-4-0)
24 GF, 20 GA, 11.4 PP%, 88.6 PK%, 46.8 CF%, 101.32
Even during the darkest times, Marc-Andre Fleury had some people left defending him, citing porous defense or a high-risk system as reasons for his sub-par statistics. But after the 2012 and 2013 postseasons, Fleury was a punchline for the Penguins’ foibles.
Even now, there are plenty of people who wouldn’t trust Fleury or won’t believe that he’s not the same goaltender anymore. There’s plenty of evidence to suggest he isn’t. Since the start of the 2013-14 season, Fleury is tied for 10th in the league in save percentage at .920, according to hockey-reference.com. He leads the NHL in games played by a goaltender in that span with 138. He’s tied for the lead in shutouts with 17.
But he’s always going to choke in the playoffs, right? In 18 Stanley Cup Playoff games during that span, Fleury’s save percentage is .919. That’s sixth among goalies with at least eight games played, right behind Carey Price (.920) and ahead of Corey Crawford (.918).
Fleury is off to a fantastic start this season, with a .942 save percentage in 10 games. It’s been even more valuable to the Penguins, who have struggled to score and to possess the puck. Not having Paul Martin and Christian Ehrhoff among the defense corps could be part of that problem.
A critical change happened for Fleury after his 2012 meltdown against the Flyers and being benched during the 2013 playoffs. He got a new goaltending coach, when Mike Bales was promoted to replace the departing Giles Meloche.
The physical talent was always undeniable for Fleury, and when he harnessed it in previous short stretches he could be fantastic. If other goaltenders have been able to change the course of their careers, or experience significant improvements with a change of scenery or change of coaches, why don’t more people believe Fleury has done the same?
Even if Fleury is only a slightly above-average goaltender, that is a big improvement from where he was a few years ago. If the Penguins can sort out some issues on defense, there is plenty of talent and improved depth up front. A “fixed” Fleury playing behind a potent Penguins’ offense could make Pittsburgh very intriguing in the spring.
11. Rangers (7-2-2)
31 GF, 20 GA, 14.3 PP%, 87.9 PK%, 48.0 CF%, 105.17 PDO
10. Blackhawks (6-5-0)
24 GF, 24 GA, 20.0 PP%, 83.3 PK%, 51.8 CF%, 97.46 PDO
9. Predators (7-2-2)
30 GF, 25 GA, 21.6 PP%, 87.1 PK%, 50.5 CF%, 101.61 PDO
8. Jets (7-3-1)
35 GF, 28 GA, 25.0 PP%, 85.4 PK%, 50.3 CF%, 102.2 PDO
7. Kings (7-3-0)
24 GA, 21 GA, 18.2 PP%, 82.9 PK%, 55.9 CF%, 99.60 PDO
6. Wild (7-2-2)
35 GA, 32 GA, 21.6 PP%, 76.0 PK%, 51.1 CF%, 101.98 PDO
5. Lightning (6-5-2)
33 GF, 33 GA, 19.5 PP% 76.9 PK%, 51.5 CF%, 100.93 PDO
The Lightning looked like one of the two best teams in the NHL at the start of the season and a pretty significant favorite to represent the Eastern Conference in the Stanley Cup Final again. It has been a little bit of a bumpy start for the reigning runners-up though.
Tyler Johnson scored his first goal of the Sunday. Steven Stamkos scored his first in six games. Johnson’s typical linemates, Ondrej Palat and Nikita Kucherov, are not lighting up defenses (six goals between the three), while Alex Killorn and Ryan Callahan, who can both be found on Stamkos’ line at times, have looked out of place amongst other puck-protecting teammates.
It’s hard to see much more than a bit of an offensive slump here, and scoring two goals in four games counts as one for this high-powered roster. Erik Condra was a low-profile but smart addition up front, and he should continue to be a nice upgrade over the guy impersonating Brenden Morrow. Jonathan Drouin was a nice spark in the first few games before slowing down a bit.
Andrei Vasilevskiy made his season debut Sunday and looked very good, though he probably wasn’t happy with the meaningless buzzer-beating goal allowed. If there’s one nitpick with the roster, it might be that there could be some decline from one of those defensemen behind Victor Hedman and Anton Stralman, but none of Jason Garrison, Matt Carle and Braydon Coburn are older than 31 at this point.
The questions for Jon Cooper are relatively minor, even after a sluggish start. Will Nikita Nesterov find a bigger role? Will Drouin gain the coaching staff’s trust? The Lightning are going to be fine, and general manager Steve Yzerman has interesting young assets to tinker with later in the season if needed.
4. Blues (8-2-1)
30 GF, 23 GA, 10.5 PP%, 83.3 PK%, 56.2 CF%, 101.19 PDO
3. Stars (9-2-0)
40 GF, 30 GA, 26.3 PP%, 81.3 PK%, 53.1 CF%, 100.60 PDO
2. Capitals (8-2-0)
34 GA, 23 GA, 24.7 PP%, 87.9 PK%, 54.1 CF%, 101.68 PDO
1. Canadiens (10-2-0)
45 GF, 23 GA, 23.8 PP%, 88.1 PK%, 49.1 CF%, 104.02 PDO