Welcome to first edition of the Sporting News NHL Power Rankings.
Yes, this is an attempt to judge where each of the 30 NHL teams rank at this juncture of the season. No, it’s not going to mirror the league standings. Yes, there will be some advanced stats considered when analyzing the teams. No, it will not mirror the “Corsi standings.” Long-term injuries to key players will be a factor. A team enjoying an unsustainable run of luck will be a factor. Common sense, in the form of “hey, this team is probably better/worse than its record indicates” might even come into play.
MORE: Big goalie contracts a big problem in cap era | Connor McDavid's controversial no goal
It’s early in the season, but as it progresses, what has happened in the past three or four games is probably not going to be more important than the past 30 or 40. There’s no perfect way to analyze and predict hockey, but if there is one thing that has been proven, it is that there are better ways to predict success, particularly in the postseason, than just pointing to the team with more points.
There will be plenty of disagreements with the rankings, but hopefully a closer look at a few teams each week will provide some insight as well.
Stats key: GF - goals for; GA - goals against; PP% - power-play percentage; PK% - penalty-kill percentage; CF% - Corsi for percentage ; PDO - even strength shooting percentage plus even strength save percentage
30. Colorado Avalanche (2-4-1)
19 GF, 21 GA, 25.0% PP, 88.9% PK, 39.6 CF%, 99.69 PDO
29. Calgary Flames (2-5-0)
15 GF, 27 GA, 15.8% PP, 78.3% PK, 47.0 CF%, 94.07 PDO
28. Buffalo Sabres (2-6-0)
15 GF, 26 GA, 23.5 PP%, 66.7 PK%, 50.8 CF%, 93.02 PDO
27. Columbus Blue Jackets (1-8-0)
19 GF, 40 GA, 22.2% PP, 69.0 PK%, 53.1 CF%, 92.08 PDO
26. Edmonton Oilers (3-6-0)
21 GF, 27 GA, 19.4 PP%, 83.9 PK%, 46.0 CF%, 99.21 PDO
25. Carolina Hurricanes (2-6-0)
14 GF, 25 GA, 9.4 PP%, 77.8 PK%, 54.4 CF%, 94.26 PDO
24. Philadelphia Flyers (4-2-1)
15 GF, 18 GA, 16.7 PP%, 79.3 PK%, 49.4 CF%, 100.26 PDO
23. Toronto Maple Leafs (1-4-2)
16 GF, 22 GA, 9.5 PP%, 75.0 PK%, 53.2 CF%, 99.46 PDO
22. Vancouver Canucks (3-2-3)
19 GF, 17 GA, 14.8 PP%, 87.0 PK%, 47.8 CF%, 100.57 PDO
21. Detroit Red Wings (4-3-1)
21 GF, 21 GA, 17.2 PP%, 76.7 PK%, 44.8 CF%, 103.59 PDO
20. Arizona Coyotes (4-3-1)
23 GF, 19 GA, 8.8 PP%, 83.9 PK%, 45.8 CF%, 106.38 PDO
No team had a better first week of the 2015-16 season than the Coyotes, who beat three teams expected to contend for the Stanley Cup. The five games since have looked a little more like what almost everyone expected.
Even the team success the Coyotes have had to this point has been a bit of a mirage, because it would be pretty hard for a Presidents’ Trophy contender to shoot better than 10 percent at even strength and also stop more than 96 percent of the shots against, let alone this roster. Fans often don’t want to hear about rebuilding and the process, but there are going to be more important aspects of the Coyotes’ season than the wins and losses.
That’s why the start of this season for the Coyotes, and a couple players in particular, has been important. It is a franchise that is going to need to put a winning product on the ice very soon, but for now selling hope and positive progress in that direction is a big development.
Max Domi and Anthony Duclair could be legitimate cornerstone talents. Dylan Strome is going to collect points in bushels in the Ontario Hockey League, and he could be a legitimate franchise center. Another high pick in the 2016 NHL Draft could yield another premium prospect.
The Coyotes have been built on defense and goaltending for years, but it’s not a coincidence that they have used 13 of 15 picks in the top four rounds of the past three drafts on forwards. If a few of them besides Domi pan out, there could eventually be a formidable, largely homegrown forward corps. Domi and Duclair are going to have slumps at some point, but they’re off to a promising start.
The Coyotes could patch holes around defenseman Oliver Ekman-Larsson and hope Mike Smith regains his 2012 form while coach Dave Tippett extracts just enough points out of a bargain-district roster to sneak into the playoffs, and maybe even win a round or two like they did three years ago.
That strategy isn’t going to provide any sort of foundation with the fan base. The Coyotes need to build something more permanent, something fans can believe will begin to produce wins and lead to even more in the future. Maybe that won’t be enough to convince people to come to Glendale, but it is the organization’s best shot. The region needs the ownership group to commit to staying, but the ownership group needs more people in the seats and viable financial stability.
Hope isn’t going to save the Coyotes in Glendale, but hope that a real plan is in place to create a core of exciting, young players that can grow into a contender might be the best way to get both sides to commit to each other.
19. Boston Bruins (3-3-1)
27 GF, 29 GA, 33.3 PP%, 68.2 PK%, 50.1 CF%, 97.42 PDO
18. New Jersey Devils (4-3-1)
19 GF, 22 GA, 22.2 PP%, 72.4 PK%, 50.4 CF%, 99.03 PDO
17. Florida Panthers (4-3-1)
26 GF, 17 GA, , 20.0 PP%, 76.5 PK%, 48.5 CF%, 106.36 PDO
16. Ottawa Senators (3-3-2)
23 GF, 24 GA, 19.2 PP%, 78.8 PK%, 49.3 CF%, 100.87 PDO
15. Anaheim Ducks (1-5-1)
6 GF, 19 GA, 5.3 PP%, 90.9 PK%, 51.9 CF%, 94.68 PDO
The Blackhawks lost five of seven games twice last season. The Kings lost six of seven early in the 2013-14 season, and then even dropped nine of 10 in January/late February.
It turns out that a slump, even an extended one, does not disqualify a team from winning the Stanley Cup (look it up in the NHL rule book if confirmation is needed), and both of those teams ended up OK. Sometimes a slump happens in the middle of the season, and sometimes it happens in October.
The Ducks have started the 2015-16 season in a slump. They are not going to shoot 2.55 percent at even strength this season. They are not going to convert less than 6 percent of their power plays.
This all seems pretty obvious, but there has been plenty of discussion and plenty of reporting done on the job status of Ducks coach Bruce Boudreau. The Ducks were one victory from reaching the Stanley Cup Final in the spring, and have a roster that is certainly built to win a championship.
That said, entertaining the idea of replacing Boudreau because the puck hasn’t gone in the net during a seven-game sample does not feel like an optimal strategy. The Ducks have improved each season with Boudreau in charge, advancing one round further in each of his three full campaigns.
What reason, short of Ryan Getzlaf or Corey Perry walking into general manager Bob Murray’s office and telling him the players have quit on Boudreau, would there be to make a change after seven games that wasn’t there after last season?
The Ducks have some things to fix. Beyond the lack of offense, this team shouldn’t be yielding nearly three goals per game. It certainly seems like an extra video session or three, or an extra few minutes working on specifics in practice would be a better idea than firing a coach who has won nearly 66 percent of his more than 600 games as an NHL coach.
Another franchise had great regular-season success (and postseason disappointment) with Boudreau, and decided to end the relationship after a similarly short stretch of bad luck that was completely out of character. That move didn’t work, and the Capitals went through two coaches and three seasons of being a fringe contender at best in the aftermath. That should be a warning for the Ducks as well.
14. Pittsburgh Penguins (4-4-0)
13 GF, 16 GA, 7.1 PP%, 84.6 PK%, 48.4 CF%, 98.64 PDO
13. New York Islanders (5-2-1)
27 GF, 22 GA, 23.8 PP%, 90.3 PK%, 47.0 CF%, 99.94 PDO
12. Minnesota Wild (5-2-1)
24 GF, 22 GA, 21.4 PP%, 77.3 PK%, 51.8 CF%, 102.34 PDO
11. Los Angeles Kings (5-3-0)
16 GF, 17 GA, 17.2 PP%, 86.5 PK%, 57.1 CF%, 97.71 PDO
10. Winnipeg Jets (5-2-1)
28 GF, 21 GA, 24.0 PP%, 84.4 PK%, 50.2 CF%, 101.25 PDO
9. Chicago Blackhawks (5-3-0)
18 GF, 16 GA, 18.2 PP%, 86.4 CF%, 52.8 CF%, 98.35 PDO
8. San Jose Sharks (5-3-0)
22 GF, 18 GA, 12.0 PP%, 78.6 PK%, 50.0 CF%, 101.82 PDO
7. Nashville Predators (6-1-1)
23 GF, 16 GA, 19.2 PP%, 87.5 PK%, 50.2 CF%, 102.19 PDO
6. New York Rangers (6-2-2)
28 GF, 19 GA, 16.0 PP%, 87.9 PK%, 47.9 CF%, 104.08 PDO
5. St. Louis Blues (5-2-1)
23 GF, 20 GA, 13.8 PP%, 81.3 PK%, 57.9 CF%, 100.04 PDO
4. Dallas Stars (6-2-0)
27 GF, 21 GA, 29.6 PP%, 90.0 PK%, 52.3 CF%, 98.33 PDO
3. Tampa Bay Lightning (5-2-2)
27 GF, 23 GA, 18.5 PP%, 72.0 PK%, 50.3 CF%, 103.1 PDO
2. Washington Capitals (6-1-0)
29 GF, 18 GA, 31.8 PP%, 83.3 PK%, 52.9 CF%, 103.69 PDO
No one player or one move or one goal can ever truly define a season or an era for a franchise, but there aren’t many more fascinating players to monitor this season than Capitals forward Evgeny Kuznetsov.
Once considered maybe the best player in the world in his age group, Kuznetsov might be the key to a long playoff run for Alex Ovechkin and friends. Kuznetsov’s first full NHL season was solid, with dashes of spectacular (11 goals, 37 points in 80 games). That continued in the postseason, where he had a few fantastic performances on the big stage.
Kuznetsov lit up the Oilers on Friday for five points, and he’s got 11 in the past five games. Even with Nicklas Backstrom back from offseason hip surgery, Kuznetsov has continued to skate with Ovechkin on the top line. He has an incredible amount of talent, and his transition to North American hockey has gone well enough that envisioning him as the next great Russian star in the NHL is not far fetched.
All three of #Kuznetsov 's goals in one glorious GIF...enjoy the dangles & sniping #CapsOilers pic.twitter.com/MuWezVKVmz
— CAPITALS HILL (@CapitalsHill) October 24, 2015 This was always possible with Kuznetsov, but 25 players were drafted before him in 2010. Teams were scared off by concerns about his commitment to playing in the NHL. The Capitals, with Ovechkin as lead recruiter, were confident he’d play two more seasons in the Kontinental Hockey League and then come to Washington.
Kuznetsov did not join the club after two years. He didn’t come over after three years. The Capitals were concerned the extended time in the KHL would stunt his development. The delay had a huge effect on the franchise. If Kuznetsov had been on the roster, would former general manager George McPhee have desperately parted with prospect Filip Forsberg for Martin Erat? How scary would the Capitals be over the next five years with Forsberg, Kuznetsov and Andre Burakovsky growing into star roles together?
Capitals fans have heard enough about Forsberg, and Kuznetsov’s arrival may prove to be better late than never. That guy who destroyed Canada in the world junior championships as a teenager is growing into an impact NHL player.
The Caps haven’t had a legitimate No. 2 center since Sergei Fedorov was in town for the 2008 and 2009 playoffs. Kuznetsov can be that guy, and adding Justin Williams and T.J. Oshie in the offseason has given the Capitals their deepest collection of forwards since they won the Presidents’ Trophy in 2009-10.
McPhee gambled on Kuznetsov on draft day, and in the end, it didn’t work out for him. It might still work out for the Capitals though, in a big, big way.
1. Montreal Canadiens (9-0-0)
35 GF, 12 GA, 22.9 PP%, 90.9 PK%, 49.8 CF%, 105.57 PDO