NHL playoffs 2019: Predictions, odds for Sharks vs. Avalanche second-round series

It's fair to say it was quite a first round for the Colorado Avalanche and the San Jose Sharks. 

Colorado upset the Western Conference regular-season champion Calgary Flames in five games and who can forget the Sharks (albeit controversial) overtime win in Game 7. 

The Avalanche have had a week off to recoup while the Sharks, who will be without captain Joe Pavelski for at least Game 1, if not longer, had two nights to rest.

SN STAFF PREDICTIONS:
Eastern Conference | Western Conference | Stanley Cup  

A lot is on the line for San Jose and 21-year-veteran Joe Thornton as they look for the first Stanley Cup in team history. Colorado is aiming to get past the second round for the first time since 2002 and the days of former captain, and current EVP of hockey ops, Joe Sakic. 

San Jose Sharks (-135) vs. Colorado Avalanche (+115): Schedule, breakdown, prediction

(*if necessary)

Season series

The Sharks swept the season series, including the final game of the regular season but these games were just as close as the final scores indicate. Between the two teams, 30 players got on the scoresheet with Brent Burns (three goals, five assists) and Samuel Girard (three goals, assist), who is expected to be back in the lineup, leading the way. But the Sharks will definitely miss Pavelski who had two goals and four assists this season, and 33 points in 42 career games, against Colorado.

Avalanche netminder Philipp Grubauer will be looking for some redemption in this series as he was pulled after allowing four goals on 14 shots in his lone start against San Jose in January. Martin Jones posted a 3.00 GAA and .900 save percentage in his three starts against Colorado.

Offense

Both teams have big points guys. Gabriel Landeskog, Mikko Rantanen and Nathan MacKinnon lead the way for Colorado. While they were split up in the first round, the trio was one of the top forward lines in the NHL for the majority of the season. Against Calgary, Rantanen had five goals and nine points and scored the overtime winner in Game 4 that all but sealed the series for the Avs.

Despite the Sharks leading scorer during the regular season being a defenseman (Burns), San Jose does have forward depth — something Colorado head coach Jared Bednar lacks — including Tomas Hertl, who has been a breakout star this year,  and Kevin Labanc who dominated Game 7 against Vegas. Along with Logan Couture, Hertl has six goals in the postseason following a 77-point regular season in 74 games. However, the loss of Pavelski will be a big hole that will need to be filled quickly.

Edge:  It’s close, but San Jose has more depth up front.

Defense

You cannot argue with the fact that the Sharks have some of the best defensemen in the game on their roster in Burns and Erik Karlsson; however, the defense as a whole was lacking in the seven-game series against the Golden Knights. Despite allowing the most goals against (25) and sporting the second-worst GAA (3.57), San Jose advanced. Questions arose as to the health of Karlsson, who only played in 53 games and solely the season finale in the last five weeks of the regular season but he has shown flashes of the old EK at times in the playoffs. Overall, San Jose will need to tighten things up immensely if they want to advance to the Western Conference final.

For Colorado, they held the Flames — who along with the Sharks scored the second-most goals in the regular season (289) — to just 11. The top pairing of Tyson Barrie and Nikita Zadorov are a solid pair but were only plus-2 in the first round; having Girard back will definitely help stabilize the blueline. Cale Makar, the Avs first-round pick in 2017 who made his NHL debut in Game 3, has played well and averaged close to 20 minutes of ice time in Games 4 and 5.

Edge: Because of the names on the blueline, and what we all know they can do when needed, Sharks have the slight edge.

Goaltending

If you were Pete DeBoer, you may be pulling what little hair is left thanks to Martin Jones. The goalie had a terrible regular season for a No. 1 netminder, posting a 2.94 GAA and .896 save percentage. You'd think maybe he'd flip the page once the playoffs started, but no, his numbers were worse in the first four games (5.34 GAA, .759 save percentage) and he was pulled twice! So why, did DeBoer stay with him? Because Aaron Dell's numbers are worse.

But then, with the season on the line in Games 5-7, Jones stepped up and not only posted spectacular numbers (1.83 GAA, .946 save percentage) he made some big saves.

“They should have a stat that says ‘belief in your goaltender,’” DeBoer said back in mid-April before the postseason began. “If they had that stat, Jonesy would be batting 1.000 with our group. There’s not been one mumble or whisper within our group about him or our confidence in him to get the job done.”

Needless to say, Jones will need to be the Jones of the last few games for the Sharks to continue their march for the Cup.

Across the way, Grubauer has been spectacular for Colorado posting a 1.90 GAA and .939 save percentage in five games. The only knock on the netminder is his poor showing from the regular season against San Jose; however, in five career games, he has a 2-1-1 record with a 2.23 GAA and .916 save percentage.

Edge: Since we'll never know which Martin Jones will show up, it has to go to Colorado.

Special teams

The Sharks power play wasn't anything to write home about — until Game 7's five-minute major. Imagine the thought that they could do that on any man advantage and Colorado should be wary of taking penalties. Up until that point, San Jose was mediocre with the power play despite the firepower it has. They did better at the Shark Tank netting three goals in the first three home games.

During the regular season, the power play of Colorado was one spot below the Sharks but has slipped two percentage points during the playoffs. Not a major shift but something to keep an eye on. But the penalty kill was under 80 percent effective during in 2018-19 and it's been pretty par for the course in the playoffs. They'll need to take a step it up against the Sharks potent power play but should be able to take advantage of the Sharks porous penalty kill they showcased against the Golden Knights.

Edge: Slight edge to San Jose.

Key players to watch

Joe Thornton (SJ): There's a reason to speculate that this could be "Jumbo Joe's" last go-around. The 21-year veteran becomes an unrestricted free agent July 1, the day before his 40th birthday. Whether or not it's his last year, Thornton is determined to finally have his long-awaited day with the Stanley Cup. He may only have four points in six games this postseason but the veteran is a proven leader and the team will need him now more than ever with the status of captain Joe Pavelski unknown.

Tyson Barrie (COL): The Avalanche defenseman had one of his best seasons in 2018-19 as he set franchise records for goals (75), assists (232) and points (307) by a defenseman. He had five assists — four on the power play — in the first round and is expected to play against the Sharks' top forwards. “I love his intensity level,” head coach Bednar noted. “It’s rising at the most important time of the year.” Barrie's all-around game and veteran presence will be key to balancing the youngest roster left.

Sharks vs. Avalanche playoff history

Last five playoff appearances

San Jose Sharks

Colorado Avalanche

Sharks vs. Avalanche prediction

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