NHL playoffs 2019: Predictions, odds for Blues vs. Stars second-round series

For the second time in four years, the St. Louis Blues and the Dallas Stars are meeting in the second round of the NHL Stanley Cup playoffs.

The Blues enter this series with home-ice advantage after defeating the Winnipeg Jets in six games in the first round thanks to a Game 6 hat trick from Jaden Schwartz. The Stars’ road to the second round went through Nashville. Dallas finished off the Predators in Game 6 when John Klingberg scored in overtime to become the first defenseman in Stars franchise history to score a series-clinching goal.

In fact, only two other defensemen in @DallasStars / North Stars franchise history have ever scored an overtime goal in the playoffs. The others:

Mattias Norstrom (Game 3 of 2008 CSF)
Paul Cavallini (Game 3 of 1994 CQF) #NHLStats #StanleyCup pic.twitter.com/Hy5zcVEbXo

— NHL Public Relations (@PR_NHL) April 23, 2019

This series will put two of the best goaltenders of the year under the spotlight in one of the most-anticipated goaltending duels in recent postseason history. It also matches up two Central Division powers that finished the regular season on the same level in regulation plus overtime wins (ROW) and in the top-10 on the power play.  

SN STAFF PREDICTIONS:
Eastern Conference | Western Conference | Stanley Cup  

St. Louis Blues (-155) vs. Dallas Stars (+135): Schedule, breakdown, prediction

(*if necessary)

Season series

The regular season series between the Stars and Blues was highlighted by some big performances from star forwards on both teams. Ultimately, the Stars won the series 3-1-0, but the Blues averaged 30.0 shots per game in the series compared to Dallas’ 21.25, making the series a little closer than it might appear at first glance.

After trading wins in the preseason, Dallas took the first game of the regular season series on Jan. 8. The Stars won that showdown by a score of 3-1 thanks to a two-goal game from Tyler Seguin. Four days later the Blues, led by Vladimir Tarasenko’s own two-goal performance, won their only game of the season series.

The third game of the series came just three days before the trade deadline. After a scoreless first period, the Stars outscored St. Louis 4-2 in the second period and then added a fifth goal in the third. That loss put an end to the Blues’ amazing 11-game win streak, which was the longest win streak in the NHL this year and the longest streak in franchise history. It was also just one of the three games in the regular in which Jordan Binnington allowed more than three goals in a game.

On March 2, the Central Division rivals met for the fourth and final time in the regular season with playoff seeding on the line. Jamie Benn stole the show with a hat trick on three shots to give the Stars a 4-1 win.

Jamie Benn's @Enterprise hat trick tonight pulls the Stars to within three points of the Blues for third in the division! #GoStars pic.twitter.com/Z6cMAwMleF

— Dallas Stars (@DallasStars) March 3, 2019

Offense

You can’t talk about the Dallas Stars’ offense without talking about its big top line.

Benn, Seguin and Alexander Radulov were the eighth-highest scoring trio of the regular season at 5v5 with 33 goals. There are only two trios that are still in the playoffs that outscored the Stars’ exceptional top line in the regular season; however, they are the highest-scoring trio at 5v5 remaining in the 2019 Playoffs. Thus far in the postseason, each member of Dallas’ top line has been a point-per-game player.

For comparison, the Blues’ highest-scoring trio at 5v5 — Tarasenko, Ryan O’Reilly and Brayden Schenn — combined for 22 goals in the regular season. Although it’s worth mentioning that Tarasenko had an unsustainably low (for him) 8.0 shooting percentage through the first three months of the season, he did score 16 of his 33 goals in the last 28 games of the season.

Of course, there’s a lot more to a team’s offense than its top line. Dallas added a big element to its depth scoring by acquiring Mats Zuccarello at the trade deadline, but its offense is still shallower than St. Louis’. The Blues had 13 players score 10 or more goals this season, which was a franchise record, while the Stars had only seven players.

Thus far in the postseason, the Stars’ have a 9.21 shooting percentage at 5v5; they had a 6.87 shooting percentage at 5v5 in the regular season, which was the third-worst in the league. In other words, there’s a reason to believe that their offense will not be able to keep up with what it achieved against Nashville in the first round.

Edge: St. Louis

Defense

The Blues’ blueline is led by an impressive top-three: captain Alex Pietrangelo, Colton Parayko and rookie Vince Dunn. As a whole, St. Louis’ defense was one of the best of the regular season. They allowed 27.99 shots against per-60 minutes (SA60) at 5v5 in the regular season, which was the fourth-lowest SA60 in the NHL. They also had the fifth-lowest Corsi Against per-60 minutes (CA60) in the regular season.

In comparison, the Stars were a far more porous defense. They allowed 30.62 SA60 and faced 57.86 CA69 at 5v5, which finished in the middle of the pack. Dallas’ best defenders are Klingberg and rookie Miro Heiskanen, both of whom are great puck-movers. Esa Lindell has been good on the top pair with Klingberg, but the Stars lack the Blues’ depth on defense.

Edge: St. Louis

Goaltending

Ben Bishop is a Vezina finalist for a reason. He posted a .936 save percentage and a .937 save percentage at 5v5 in 45 starts this year and his save percentage was the best among all goalies who appeared in at least 20 games. The Stars netminder also finished the year tied for the seventh-best save percentage on the penalty kill (.897) among that same group of goaltenders.

Bishop, who started his career with the Blues, posted a remarkable .941 save percentage in his three starts against St. Louis this season.

At the other end of the rink is rookie sensation Jordan Binnington. Along with his head coach Craig Berube, Binnington is credited as being the savior of the Blues’ 2018-19 season. He finished the regular season with a .927 save percentage

Edge: Dallas.

Special teams

The Blues came out of their series against the Winnipeg Jets with a 26.3 percent success rate on the man advantage. On the other hand, the Stars have an 18.8 percent power-play percentage through the first six games of the playoffs. However, Dallas enters the second round without allowing a single power-play goal against. They’re the last team standing with a 100.0 percent success rate on the penalty kill.

By the end of the regular season, St. Louis finished with a 21.1 percent power play; the Stars were at 21.0 percent. Both teams also finished in the top-nine in the penalty kill with percentages north of 81 percent before the playoffs began, but the Stars’ 82.8 percent success rate while shorthanded was a cut above the Blues.

Edge: Dallas.

Key players to watch

All eyes are going to be on the goaltending duel between the veteran Ben Bishop and the rookie Jordan Binnington.

Dallas’ Vezina finalist has a .945 save percentage in the 2019 Playoffs coming into this series. Even before his stellar performance against the Predators, Bishop was already considered a proven commodity in the playoffs. Before this year, he had a .926 save percentage in the postseason and was Tampa Bay’s starter when they made it to the Stanley Cup Final in 2015.

Binnington’s numbers and experience in the postseason pale in comparison to Dallas’ 6-foot-7 netminder, but he is the reason why the Blues made it to the playoffs in the first place. There’s definitely room for him to improve on his .908 save percentage through his first six playoff games, but that number is a little misleading. Binnington had a .933 save percentage in the last three games of the first round. In other words, he is finding his form again after a rocky start to his postseason career.

Blues vs. Stars last five playoff meetings

This will be the 14th meeting between the Blues franchise and the Stars/North Stars franchise in the postseason. The Blues have the edge (7-6) and have won in the last two meetings; St. Louis swept Dallas in the Western Conference semifinals in 2001 and edged them out in a seven-game series in 2016.

The Blues have played more series against the Stars/North Stars franchise than any other NHL team. St. Louis got through the North Stars in the 1968 and 1970 playoffs when they made three-consecutive appearances in the Stanley Cup Final. However, they have met in the playoffs just twice in the last 17 years (excluding the 2004-05 lockout). They have been in the Central Division together for the last six years after Dallas moved from the Pacific Division.

*Dallas was then the Minnesota North Stars

Last five playoff appearances

St. Louis Blues

Dallas Stars

Blues vs. Stars prediction

This series is going to be tight, but the Blues’ amazing run will continue and they will win it in seven.

All data courtesy naturalstattrick.com and Corsica.hockey.