NHL playoffs 2019: Predictions, odds for Capitals vs. Hurricanes first-round series

As the Washington Capitals look to go back-to-back with Stanley Cups, they will face off in the first round of the 2019 Stanley Cup playoffs against a Carolina Hurricanes team that, after a decade, has finally punched a return ticket to the postseason.

Washington has been able to see a lot of growth this season. Under new head coach Todd Reirden, the Capitals were still able to finish first in the Metropolitan Division for the fourth straight season and return to the playoffs for the fifth consecutive year. Following last year’s breakthrough and eventual first-ever championship, they are prepared to do it all again.

Carolina, however, will be no easy opponent. The “Bunch of Jerks” have been surging this season under new captain Justin Williams, as the locker room and team dynamic has changed for the better. They’re also getting much-needed leadership and scoring from their youth, and ultimately, have built depth down the lineup.

SN STAFF PREDICTIONS:
Eastern Conference | Western Conference | Stanley Cup 

Washington Capitals (-135) vs. Carolina Hurricanes (+115): Schedule, breakdown, prediction

(*if necessary)

Season series

Needless to say, it was all Caps in the season series, outscoring the Canes 15-9. Alexander Ovechkin (three goals, two assists), John Carlson (two goals, four assists) and Evgeny Kuznetsov (five assists) led the way Washington. Netminder Braden Holtby, who will start in the playoffs, posted a 2.21 goals-against and .918 save percentage in the four wins.

For the Canes, Sebastian Aho played a role in six of their nine goals (three goals, three assists) and has 17 points (eight goals, nine assists) in 12 career games — his highest points total against any team.

Offense

Led by 33-year-old Alex Ovechkin, who won his eighth Rocket Richard — surpassing Bobby Hull's seven — with 51 goals this season, Washington has an impressive offensive arsenal.

The Capitals finished with seven 20-goal scorers on the roster this season, including players like Jakub Vrana (24 goals, 23 assists), Tom Wilson (22 goals, 18 assists) and Brett Connolly (22 goals, 24 assists), who exceeded expectations.

All down the lineup, the Capitals have depth, even on that fourth line with Nic Dowd, Travis Boyd and Andre Burakovsky. Ultimately, the fifth-ranked goals scoring squad in the NHL with 274 assists, has firepower.

Fitty-One. #ALLCAPS @ovi8 pic.twitter.com/amAfSs2Qiv

— Washington Capitals (@Capitals) March 31, 2019

Across the aisle, Carolina is benefitting from their youth, with 21-year-old Aho leading the way with 30 goals and 83 points. In addition to young guns and 20-goal scorers Teuvo Teravainen (21 goals, 55 assists) and Andrei Svechnikov (20 goals, 17 assists), the biggest story — and a key player to watch — is 37-year-old Justin Williams. The captain and former Capitals winger finished with 23 goals and 53 points this season.

Carolina also got a steal when acquiring Nino Niederreiter from Minnesota in January. He went from struggling with the Wild (23 points in 46 games) to 14 goals and 30 points in 38 games with the Hurricanes.

Edge: Capitals. Washington has seen a number of their players find their spark on the forecheck, and outnumber the Hurricanes in regards to goal-scoring. 

Defense

With Michal Kempny out for the season with a torn hamstring, there’s no doubt that the Capitals will feel the impact of his absence. It's already happened as Reirden has shuffled the pairings and experimented in all kinds of ways to fill the void.

Still, the Capitals have 2019 All-Star and Norris Trophy candidate John Carlson who can log large chunks of ice time, and leads the team in TOI (25:04). Nick Jensen, who was acquired just days before the trade deadline, has fit in seamlessly on the blue line and has been excellent, and surely enough, he’s a guy that can slot in on the top-pairing.

Though the Matt Niskanen and Dmitry Orlov pairing needs some work, Washington still has a lot of depth, with Brooks Orpik thriving and young blueliners like Christian Djoos able to step up and play top-pairing minutes. Waiting in the wings, Jonas Siegenthaler and Tyler Lewington have provided depth to the lineup and can step up if needed.

Looking at Carolina’s defensive corps, they’ve benefited from the acquisition of Dougie Hamilton, who has completely taken charge and has provided an offensive boost (18 goals, 21 assists) while leading the charge on the backcheck (even plus/minus).

In addition to Hamilton, the Canes have Jaccob Slavin, Justin Faulk and Brett Pesce rounding out the top-4. They are all reliable and versatile defensemen who can move the puck up the ice. Calvin de Haan, who is expected to return from a late-season upper-body injury before the playoffs start, and Trevor van Riemsdyk are expected to be the third pairing.

Edge: Capitals. WIth Carlson and Jensen’s versatility, as well as veterans and youth rounding out the lineup, Washington has the upper hand, even without Kempny.

Goaltending

Both Washington and Carolina has benefitted from excellent goaltending this season, with Holtby and Petr Mrazek proving their worth between the pipes.

While his stats aren’t as good as they’ve been in the past (2.82 GAA, .911 save percentage), Holtby has come a long way since the start of the season. He’s been phenomenal in the final stretch, winning his last five starts and boasting a 1.60 GAA and .945 save percentage.

Looking at his playoff history, the 29-year-old the 2016 Vezina Trophy winner is one of the best in the business. Since 2012, he has registered a 2.04 GAA and .929 save percentage in 82 postseason appearances. Of note though, last year, he wasn’t the Caps’ starter heading into the playoffs but came in to relieve a struggling Philipp Grubauer in Game 2 against Columbus and never looked back.

Braden Holtby makes an INCREDIBLE paddle save on Alex Tuch in the final minutes of regulation. This has got to be in the lead for save of the year right?!#ALLCAPS | #CapsYear | #CapsKnights | #VegasBorn | #StanleyCup @FrankDangelo23 pic.twitter.com/uqFeKujjvE

— NextSportStar.com (@NextSportStar) May 31, 2018

For Carolina, Mrazek is one of the biggest reasons the Hurricanes are back in the playoffs for the first time since 2009. The 2018 free-agent signee has proven himself to be an NHL starter posting a 2.39 GAA and .914 save percentage in 40 starts this season. He doesn’t have a deep playoff history, but in 10 starts since 2015, the 27-year-old has been excellent with a 1.98 GAA and .927 save percentage in 11 appearances.

If either starter would falter, both teams have reliable netminders. The Hurricanes have veteran Curtis McElhinney and the Capitals employ rookie Pheonix Copley who has been known to make big saves and play a smart game but still has ways to go in developing his skillset.

Edge: Neither. Mrazek makes a strong case, but Holtby has years of playoff experience and his numbers speak volumes: however, the Hurricanes have a stronger back-up in McElhinney and have the advantage there.

Special teams

On the power play, Washington is lethal. Ranked 12th with the man advantage at 20.8 percent, the Capitals, of course, have Ovechkin as the main threat — especially from his office in the left circle. The team also benefits from having Backstrom and Kuznetsov working in tandem on that top unit, as well a T.J. Oshie crashing the net and Carlson working the point.

However, their second unit doesn’t get a lot of ice time, and despite having players like Lars Eller, Vrana and Connolly, they don’t click well and often can’t convert.

The Hurricanes fall into the middle of the NHL at 17.8 percent conversion, but their first power-play unit is dangerous, with Niederreiter, Aho and Williams up front and Justin Faulk and Teuvo Teravainen working the points. On their second-unit, Carolina benefits from Hamilton serving as the quarterback, with Jordan Staal, Svechnikov and Michael Ferland working down low.

On the flip side, the Capitals penalty kill ranks among the worst in the league at 78.9 efficiency — probably doesn't help that they also took the fourth-most number of penalties (104) in the NHL. They’ve been benefited from having Carl Hagelin, Matt Niskanen and Brooks Orpik on the PK, but again, without Kempny, Washington will be hurting.

Carolina, on the other hand, has the eighth-best penalty kill in the league with an 81.6 percent success rate. Not only can Aho and Teravainen take charge on the PK, but they can generate chances the other way; each of them had five shorthanded points this season, and the Hurricanes franchise generated 16 points on the penalty kill.

Edge: Carolina Hurricanes. Though the Capitals’ power play is better, it’s Carolina who will benefit from a strong PK, and if Washington keeps taking a lot of penalties, the Hurricanes will be better off.

Key players to watch

Alex Ovechkin: Of course the Russian winger is going to be the biggest name to watch heading into the playoffs. He again finished first in the league and now has eight 50-goal seasons under his belt, and last year, he was the leading goal-scorer through the playoffs (15).

Considering his drive and determination to get back-to-back championships, as well as his skill set, he is going to be the biggest threat to Carolina.

Nino Niederreiter: Although Aho is perhaps the biggest story this season, it is Niederreiter who will pose a huge threat and make a big difference in the playoffs for Carolina. After struggling with the Wild, he came over and found immediate chemistry with his teammates and has been an outstanding goal-scorer and offensive threat.

He’s an incredibly versatile and focused player, and with his work ethic and chemistry within the lineup, look for him to be dangerous.

Capitals vs. Hurricanes playoff meetings

Shockingly, this is the first time in NHL history that these two teams will meet in the postseason.

Last five playoff appearances

Last season, the Capitals exorcized their demons. After being down 2-0 to the Blue Jackets in the first round, they came back and won the series in six games. They then finally overcame their second-round troubles and defeated the Penguins in six games before defeating the Stanley Cup favorite Tampa Bay Lightning in seven.

In the Cup Final, Washington dropped its first game against the Vegas Golden Knights but won four straight to secure the franchise's first-ever Stanley Cup after a 44-year drought.

Washington Capitals

Since the move to Carolina, the Hurricanes organization has only qualified for the playoffs five times; however, in three of those appearances, they made deep runs.

In 2002, they were able to beat the New Jersey Devils, Montreal Canadiens and Toronto Maple Leafs in six-game series, but fell to the Red Wings in five in the Cup Final. Four years later they won Lord Stanley's Cup, defeating the Edmonton Oilers in seven games. Carolina's last appearance was 10 years ago  when they made it to the Conference Final losing to the eventual Cup-winning Penguins

Carolina Hurricanes

Capitals vs. Hurricanes prediction

The Hurricanes are a serious threat. They’ve proven their worth to the league and showed that they’re not an easy opponent to face anymore. However, the Capitals are coming off a historic 2017-18 campaign ending with a Cup title, and have faced just as much adversity this year as last season. Washington will come out on top, but not completely unscathed.

Prediction: Capitals win in six.