To fully appreciate this year's Western Conference finals matchup, let's time travel back to 2011, shall we? The Atlanta Thrashers were going through the motions of what would become their final season before moving to Winnipeg and the hockey in Vegas wasn't even a figment of Gary Bettman's imagination.
Three NHL franchises haven't made the playoffs in the seven seasons since, let alone reach the Stanley Cup semifinals. Ten more haven't won a single playoff series.
Yet here we are: A first-year expansion team meets a first-time final four participant for the right to play for a championship.
GOLDEN STANDARD
How Vegas became the most successful expansion team in sports history
By point totals, the Jets and Golden Knights were the West's second- and third-best teams from the regular season. They're also two of the most exciting teams in the NHL, deploying high-flying offensive attacks built on speed and precision with the star power to match.
Winnipeg is in the conference finals for the first time ever, dating to the franchise's first incarnation.
Vegas has achieved the benchmark in a slightly more timely fashion, taking the NHL by storm.
Sporting News' NHL experts Brandon Schlager, Evan Sporer and Jim Cerny make their series predictions below.
MORE: Watch NHL playoff action on fuboTV (7-day free trial)
Jets (-145) vs. Golden Knights (+125): Schedule, picks, predictions
Game 1: May 12 at Winnipeg, 7 p.m. (NBC, CBC, fuboTV)
Game 2: May 14 at Winnipeg, 8 p.m. (NBCSN, CBC, Sportsnet, fuboTV)
Game 3: May 16 at Vegas, 9 p.m. (NBCSN, CBC, Sportsnet, fuboTV)
Game 4: May 18 at Vegas, 8 p.m. (NBCSN, CBC, fuboTV)
*Game 5: May 20 at Winnipeg, 3 p.m. (NBC, CBC, Sportsnet, fuboTV)
*Game 6: May 22 at Vegas, 9 p.m. (NBCSN, CBC, fuboTV)
*Game 7: May 24 at Winnipeg (NBCSN, CBC, fuboTV)
(All times Eastern; * If necessary)
Regular season meetings: VGK, 5-2 (11/10); WPG, 7-4 (12/1); VGK, 3-2 OT (2/1)
MORE: Patrik Laine shows pedigree, personality of next great goal scorer
Tale of the tape
Offense: Now that the Penguins and Predators are out, the Jets have three of the top five scorers remaining in the postseason. Mark Scheifele and Blake Wheeler are 1-2 (16 and 15 points, respectively), and Scheifele's 11 goals pace the entire field. Alex Ovechkin is the next closest with eight. Paul Stastny has 14 points. Vegas' top goal-scorers are William Karlsson, Alex Tuch and Jonathan Marchessault with four apiece.
Advantage: Jets
Defense: Similar to their forwards, the Golden Knights distribute ice time pretty evenly across the top six. Nate Schmidt is the only one who averages more than 20 minutes per game. Due respect to him and Shea Theodore, the Jets have a more dynamic top four led by Dustin Byfuglien and Jacob Trouba. Tyler Myers, arguably Winnipeg's fifth-best defenseman, has three goals in the playoffs, including the one that started the Game 7 avalanche against the Predators.
Advantage: Jets
MORE: William Karlsson's next contract a wild gamble for Golden Knights
Goaltending: Marc-Andre Fleury has been magnificent through two rounds, sporting a .951 save percentage in 10 games — four of them shutouts — and allowing just 17 goals. All of that leads the league. A career playoff heel, Fleury's resurrected his reputation to become a clear Conn Smythe favorite.
The question is: How much longer can he keep this up? The Golden Knights have given their goalie marginal offensive support (2.90 goals per game) thus far, so Fleury is the single most critical player to the outcome of this series. In the other net is Connor Hellebuyck, a playoff rookie who's validated his standing as one of the NHL's best goalies with a .927 save percentage (.942 at even strength). He's allowed two or fewer goals in eight of 12 starts
Advantage: Split
Special teams: Vegas' ability to consistently kill off penalties throughout the playoffs has been remarkable. They've been short-handed 40 times in 10 games, second-most next to Washington (which has played 12 games), but surrendered just six power play goals against (85 percent). Winnipeg makes up with a sub-par penalty kill by scoring at a 25 percent clip on the power play. Whether they can replicate that success against the Knights will be one storyline to watch.
Advantage: Golden Knights
Coaching: Paul Maurice and his staff have been free of coaching headaches so far in the playoffs with their top six clicking in most any situation. If it isn't broken, don't fix it, and they've maintained a level-headed approach. On the other bench, Gerard Gallant is a coach of the year shoo-in for his work all season finding ways to fit players into ideal roles that maximize their ability. In this series, his biggest task is to find ways to get the top line of Karlsson, Marchessault and Reilly Smith into favorable situations.
Advantage: Split
MORE: Already toast of hockey, Vegas' success story deserves wider audience
Staff predictions
Brandon Schlager (9-3): They said the Kings, with their two Stanley Cups, would be too structured and battle-tested to handle. They said the Sharks — speedy, coordinated and full of dynamic offensive talent — would beat them at their own game. They were wrong. All of them. The Golden Knights defied logic all season and then cut through the best challengers the rest of the Pacific Division had to offer on their way to the conference finals. Their first-year fairytale is fueled by a confluence of camaraderie, creativity, great coaching, and some good fortune. There's no making sense of it beyond that. Now it's on to Winnipeg, the would-be Presidents' Trophy winner and Central Division champion had the Jets' season of dominance not coincided with the Predators, who they just beat in seven games to formally announce their designs on the Stanley Cup.
I've believed in Vegas this long, and still do, but this isn't the Pacific Division anymore. This is where they'll say the Jets, armed with the deepest and most talented group of forwards in the league, vasty outnumber the Knights' top scorers and can wear them down. If not, Hellebuyck has shown he's up to the task, having already outplayed fellow Vezina finalist Pekka Rinne. They'll say Fleury is due for some regression. Hell, I'm saying that. The Jets look like the most fearsome team in the NHL, and stealing two games from them would be an accomplishment in itself. Maybe, to my delight, I'll be wrong. If nothing else, let's not take the Golden Knights for granted and appreciate what will be the final chapter to one of the greatest sports stories we've seen in some time.
Jets in 6 games
Evan Sporer (8-4): I’ve been incredibly anti-Vegas all season long. I didn’t think they’d do anything in the regular season, nor did I expect them to make the playoffs, nor did I expect them to win two rounds. But here we are, and here are these pesky Golden Knights, who just keep winning, to the point where maybe we shouldn’t be surprised.
I’ll say this, though: I picked the Sharks last round not because I legitimately thought San Jose would win. I picked the Sharks to win that series in five games out of a pseudo-frustration with how well the Golden Knights continued to perform in spite of the expectations.
But here is the reality as they enter this series against the Jets. This is the most complete team, by a very wide margin, Vegas will have come up against in these playoffs. The Central side of the West bracket was a full 26.2 mile marathon. That other bracket has played more like a 10K road race. Where the Golden Knights have the benefit of that one very good line gifted to them by the Panthers, the Jets roll two top lines, and two others lines they’re really comfortable throwing out for any type of matchup. That’s going to throw a major wrench in Gallant’s game plan. Hypothetically, let’s say in an ideal world for Vegas they get the Florida/Columbus line (Marchessault, Smith, and Karlsson) against the Jets' top line of Kyle Connor, Scheifele and Wheeler. I fully expect the Jets' “second line” of Nikolaj Ehlers, Paul Stastny, and Patrik Laine to eat whatever line they go head-to-head with.
There’s another thing that has been a major strength for the Golden Knights during this playoff run that may not play as much in their favor. Vegas leads the entire NHL with a .965 save percentage at 5-on-5, higher than any team in the Stanley Cup playoffs since 2008. Like … significantly higher; the Panthers turned in a .957 save percentage in six playoff games in 2016. The highest ever for a Stanley Cup winner was the Boston Bruins, in 2011 at .950.
Essentially what that boils down to is, Fleury is due to regress. And even if Fleury simply becomes a .950 goaltender, which is still absurdly absurd, it doesn’t mean he’ll be playing .950 hockey, but a bit below that to even things out. Let’s just say, for argument’s sake, Fleury starts playing .920 over the first four games of this series. Facing 26 5-on-5 shots per game that save-percentage would see him allow about nine goals. At the frequency he has been stopping pucks, he would have only allowed four goals. That’s an extra five (!) goals against over a four-game span. It’s just really tough to see Fleury sustaining at this level because even a goalie on a hot streak in the playoffs usually gets extinguished at some points, and it can be really ugly when it happens (looking at Rinne, just last year).
It also shouldn’t be ignored just how well the Jets are playing. That top line is absolutely humming, and Scheifele seems like he’s going to score every time he has the puck on his stick (and on the same note, has scored on 36.7(!) percent of his shots). That Connor got going later in that Predators series is also a big development, and Stastny has been really strong, solidifying their center depth with that trade deadline acquisition.
There really isn’t a whole lot to dislike about this Winnipeg team. Barring the Golden Knights' top line getting the vast majority of its shifts against the Ben Chiarot-Tyler Myers defensive pairing, I’m very, very confident in my Jets pick, more confident than any “not Vegas” pick I have made all season.
Jets in 6 games
Jim Cerny (8-4): TBA
