There are a great many variables that go into determining a Stanley Cup champion. A bunch of them are uncontrollable. Yes, talent reigns supreme, but more than any sport, fortune good or bad — pure, unadulterated luck — can swing a game or an entire series, almost all of which is unpredictable.
So it can become a fool's errand to try and guess how the NHL's second season will break down.
MORE: Odds to win the 2018 Stanley Cup
In the Eastern Conference, that's never been more true. Two of the league's most dominant teams are in the same division as the conference's first and second overall seeds. Alex Ovechkin has the Capitals on a quest for verification and the Maple Leafs look like a dominant force for years to come. The two-time defending champion Penguins can never be counted out. No one would be surprised if any of these hoists the Cup in June.
Sporting News' NHL experts Brandon Schlager, Evan Sporer and Jim Cerny predict the Eastern Conference playoffs and make their Stanley Cup picks below.
MORE: Western Conference series-by-series breakdown
NHL playoff bracket
NHL playoffs 2018: Eastern Conference predictions
Tampa Bay Lightning (A1) vs. New Jersey Devils (WC2)
The backstory
Seven teams that failed to make the 2017 Stanley Cup playoffs qualified in 2018, matching the largest year-over-year change in NHL history. Two of those teams meet in what should be a high-energy, high-scoring first-round series.
The key player
Steven Stamkos' health brought the Lightning back to the form that helped them to consecutive Eastern Conference finals appearances several years ago. But, the most important player in this series is Taylor Hall, without whom the Devils would not have sniffed their first playoff berth in six years. Hall has been arguably the NHL's most valuable player in a year chock full of them. If the Devils are going to make a series out of this, he's going to have to play at an otherworldly level.
The big number
The Lightning were the consensus Stanley Cup favorite most of the regular season because of a high-powered offense that scored more goals (290) than any team since 2009-10. No one envies Cory Schneider or Keith Kinkaid right now.
Brandon Schlager: Lightning in 6
Evan Sporer: Lightning in 5
Jim Cerny: Lightning in 5
MORE: Lightning vs. Devils series schedule, TV info
Boston Bruins (A2) vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (A3)
The backstory
Fresh off the most successful regular season in their century of existence, the Maple Leafs' gift from the NHL is the Bruins, the fourth-best team in the league and the Eastern Conference's No. 2 seed. This is the 15th postseason meeting between the Original Six franchises and first since Boston's infamous come-from-behind stunner in the 2013 conference quarterfinals. Toronto owns an 8-6 series edge in the previous 14 matchups, but the teams are even as can be with a 34-34-1 ledger all time.
The key player
Auston Matthews' sophomore season was limited to 62 games due to injury and still wound up scoring 34 goals. Now healthy, it's a good thing he got lots of rest because he'll need it with Patrice Bergeron bearing down on the Maple Leafs' top line. Mike Babcock himself likes to say all the great players need signature playoff performances, and you get the feeling Matthews is bursting at the seams to have his first.
The big number
The Bruins roll out a rotation of six rookies in their regular lineup, including Ryan Donato, the Olympic revelation whose knack for the net has carried over into the NHL. He had nine points in 12 games after joining the Bruins late in the season. Don't expect the kids to be fazed by the playoff spotlight.
Brandon Schlager: Maple Leafs in 7
Evan Sporer: Bruins in 7
Jim Cerny: Maple Leafs in 7
MORE: Bruins vs. Maple Leafs series schedule, TV info
Washington Capitals (M1) vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (WC1)
The backstory
A now-or-never mantra has consumed the Capitals in 2018, but whether they'll finally make good on their playoff potential and win a Cup is another question entirely. They're going to be tested right off the hop. Columbus is 13-3-1 since March 4, one of the NHL's best teams in the second half. Their prize is having to get past Washington and Pittsburgh, against whom the Blue Jackets were 1-7 combined during the regular season. John Tortorella's group is young, talented and one year wiser, but they face a tall task to get by a highly motivated Alex Ovechkin and Co.
The key player
The Blue Jackets were throttled by the Penguins in 2017, then went out and traded for Artemi Panarin. The 26-year-old sniper turned out to be the offensive bread winner they needed. He had a career year away from Chicago (27 goals, 82 points), finishing the season with 1.67 points per game after March 1, second to only Connor McDavid over that span. This series will be a track meet, and the Jackets need Panarin to take it over.
The big number
.887. That's Sergei Bobrovsky's save percentage in 18 career playoff appearances. (It ticks up slightly to .897 in two series with Columbus.) Bobrovsky's the type of goal that can steal a series and, true to form, he gives the Blue Jackets an edge in net over the Capitals, who are dealing with a bit of a goalie controversy. Philipp Grubauer gets the first crack over incumbent starter Braden Holtby, who struggled most of the year.
Brandon Schlager: Capitals in 6
Evan Sporer: Capitals in 7
Jim Cerny: Capitals in 7
MORE: Capitals vs. Blue Jackets series schedule, TV info
Pittsburgh Penguins (M2) vs. Philadelphia Flyers (M3)
The backstory
The road to history for the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Penguins starts on the Pennsylvania Turnpike. Standing in their way is a pesky Flyers team that could pose a legitimate threat to Pittsburgh's three-peat chances. Philadelphia is notoriously streaky but has the type of offensive firepower that can wreak havoc on a thin defense corps and shaky goaltending. Still, they'll need some luck to stand a chance against Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Phil Kessel and Co., who can accomplish a feat unseen in the NHL in more than 30 years
The key player
Claude Giroux's Hart Trophy candidacy speaks for itself. If he channels 2012 (when a campaign was launched briefly to add another name to the "Best Player in the World" discussion), the Penguins could be forced to sweat this one out.
The big number
Special teams numbers don't always translate from the regular season to the playoffs, when refs tend to swallow their whistles, but the Penguins' power play (26.2 percent) is something to marvel. In the last 20 years, only the 2012-13 Capitals scored more frequently with the man advantage. Dial it back another 10 years and Pittsburgh's power play ranks fifth, ahead of their back-to-back Stanley Cup squads of the early 1990s.
Brandon Schlager: Penguins in 5
Evan Sporer: Penguins in 6
Jim Cerny: Penguins in 6
Stanley Cup Final picks
Brandon Schlager
Eastern Conference champion: Lightning over Penguins in 7 games
Western Conference champion: Predators over Sharks in 5 games
Stanley Cup champion: Predators over Lightning in 6 games
I know, I know. Reeeeaaall original. Two No. 1 seeds haven't met in the Stanley Cup Final since 2001, when the Avalanche had Joe Sakic, Patrick Roy, Adam Foote, Raymond Bourque!, et al, the Devils had Martin Brodeur, Scott Stevens, Scott Niedermayer, Alexander Mogilny, et al, and parity was very obviously a figment of Gary Bettman's dreams. These days, there are four No. 1s, yet it still hasn't happened in the four years this silly playoff format has been in place. But hey, these were my preseason Stanley Cup picks (I swear), so I'm sticking to my guns in the interest of consistency. Allow me to gloat a little until this bracket is ripped to shreds.
In seriousness, the NHL is begging for this matchup. Two Sunbelt expansion franchises in captive, exciting destination locales. They also happen to be the two most well-rounded teams in the field. The Predators are built from the back, out. Pekka Rinne is the Vezina shoo-in and this year they might actually have four Erik Karlssons in front of him. Sign me up for a nightly battle between that defense corps and the dynamic duo of Nikita Kucherov (remember him?) and Steven Stamkos.
The blue line isn't the Lightning's strength, but the top pair of Norris front-runner Victor Hedman and Anton Stralman is still one of the best lockdown partnerships in the league. Throw in newcomer Ryan McDonagh and Mikhail Sergachev, who led all rookie defensemen with 40 points, as anchors and all of a sudden Tampa can roll out three formidable pairs in front of Andrei Vasilevskiy, who's untested in the playoffs but still one of the best goalies in the NHL. They'll need to be on point. Nashville added Kyle Turris, Nick Bonino and a healthy Ryan Johansen on top of its Stanley Cup roster from a year ago. They have a top six of capable centers alone, without factoring in Filip Forsberg and Victor Arvidsson.
Got all that? I haven't even mentioned the coaching matchup between Jon Cooper and Peter Laviolette, two of the best tacticians in the game. Stanley Cups aren't won on paper. More likely, what happens over the next two months will defy logic. This is nothing more than an educated guess.
Conn Smythe winner: Filip Forsberg
Evan Sporer
Eastern Conference champion: Lightning over Penguins in 6 games
Western Conference champion: Jets over Ducks in 6 games
Stanley Cup champion: Jets over Lightning in 6 games
How about two teams that were outside of the playoff picture a year ago going head-to-head for the Stanley Cup a year later? How about guys like Stamkos, Kucherov, Point, and Wheeler, Scheifele, Laine buzzing around the offensive zone? How about two of the best, young goaltenders in the game in Hellebuyck and Vasilevskiy? Top to bottom, these might be the two most complete teams in the NHL. Should they reach the Cup Final, they would have both traversed incredibly difficult roads, no favors done for them by the playoff format. Tampa Bay finished with the highest goals-for percentage in the NHL (57.18) and Winnipeg fourth in the league and second in the West (54.72).
This would be an absolute war, and also a complete showcase of where hockey is trending, in its purest, best, most entertaining form. These are two free-flowing offensive teams that emphasize skating and skill over grit and physicality. That's not to say there won't be any checks thrown in this series (see: Byfuglien, Dustin) but the point is these two teams can play.
So what makes the difference in this type of series? Winnipeg head coach Paul Maurice has two fantastic centers in Paul Stastny and Bryan Little when it comes to defensive assignments. Heck, he can feel very comfortable throwing the Scheifele line out against anyone. And then there's the Jets' fourth line with Adam Lowry down the middle. It's one of the ingenious things about how this group was constructed: While there's a clear pecking order, and each line brings different strengths, there isn't a group that you worry too much about getting caught out there.
This is going to be the model moving forward. The Jets are in the ultimate position to winnow with guys like Laine and Connor on entry-level deals, and a deadline acquisition like Stastny. And when it's all said and done, they'll parade the Stanley Cup down the grey, dreary streets of Winnipeg, where the Jets will get the last laugh.
Conn Smythe winner: Blake Wheeler
Jim Cerny
Eastern Conference champion: Lightning over Penguins in 6 games
Western Conference champion: Predators over Kings in 6 games
Stanley Cup champion: Predators over Lightning in 6 games
Two disclaimers to start. Predicting a Stanley Cup Final when so much can and will take place over the next six weeks is a fairly difficult crapshoot. And I didn't go into this looking for the "easy" Stanley Cup Final pick of the respective top seeds; but no matter how much I try and avoid it, I keep coming back to the Predators and Lightning. They are the best teams in their respective conferences, and I believe each will carve a similar path to the Final.
I see Nashville taking out Colorado with relative ease before winning a seven-game war with Winnipeg in the second round. The Preds will then advance to a second consecutive Stanley Cup Final appearance by beating the Kings in six games.
Likewise, Tampa Bay will beat New Jersey in five games to start the tournament and then be pushed to the seven-game limit before defeating Toronto in Round 2. To reach their second Final in four years, the Lightning will beat the two-time defending Cup champion Penguins in six games.
As far as this Final goes, the Predators will win the 2018 Stanley Cup because of their deep defense corps and the outstanding play of goaltender Rinne — the best defense/goalie tandem Tampa Bay will face this post-season.
Conn Smythe winner: Pekka Rinne
