When it comes to the NHL draft, parity in the standings can really muddy up the waters for those trying to categorize not only the contenders from the pretenders, but the pretenders from the doormats. Even here in late February, and with the trade deadline a fading memory, there remains a distinct possibility that a team that currently owns a bottom-10 record not only makes the playoffs, but also finishes as a non-wild card team.
Nonetheless, the 2020 draft shouldn’t disappoint in either the intrigue or suspense department, regardless of which teams are doing the drafting.
Based on the standings as of Feb. 27, the teams with the greatest odds to gain a top-three draft pick are Detroit, Los Angeles and Ottawa, in that order. What we can say with certainty, however, is that it’s been nine years since the lottery drawing rewarded the first three draft picks to the respective three worst teams in the league. Last year, the Chicago Blackhawks won the draft lottery for the third overall pick despite falling only six points short of the Western Conference’s last wild card spot. In 2017, it was Philadelphia which went from bubble team to securing the No. 2 pick. That’s why we utilized the draft lottery simulator Tankathon for the order of first four picks while the current NHL standings determined the rest.
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It’s patently clear that the grand prize for the team picking first pick this June is left wing Alexis Lafreniere of the QMJHL’s Rimouski Oceanic — the same team that produced former No. 1 picks Vincent Lecavalier (1998) and Sidney Crosby (2005). Naturally, how dominant a player Lafreniere will become depends on a variety of factors. But if his league play and destruction of the world’s top teenagers at the last world junior championship are any indication, there should be little doubt as to how impactful Lafreniere will be — and in a relatively short time period to boot.
The overall depth of the 2020 draft can be classified as average, yet the upper tier of prospects after Lafreniere are made up of mostly offensive-minded wingers and playmaking centers, all with high-end potential. Although one can never say with certainty how the first round of the draft will play out, there’s a strong chance this June will reveal the largest collection of forwards taken in the first round since 2014, when only five of the 30 selections were defensemen.
Now, onto the picks:
NHL Mock Draft 2020, version 2.0
1. Detroit Red Wings: Alexis Lafreniere, LW, Rimouski (QMJHL)
The “Dead Things” are back, but won’t be for long if Detroit lands the crown jewel of the 2020 draft class. Lafreniere is the most complete player available, not only for his elite hockey sense and scoring touch, but also for his enthusiasm, intense compete-level, and physicality. With the QMJHL scoring title all but wrapped up, the 6-1, 196-pound power forward is on track to become Canadian major junior’s most decorated prospect since Crosby in 2005.
2. Los Angeles Kings: Tim Stutzle, C/LW, Adler Mannheim (DEL)
This explosive and dynamic forward is already pacing to become the German league’s most prolific draft-year scorer — but that isn’t even the half of it. Stutzle has the capability to put on a show every time he hits the ice, and what better place to do it in than in Los Angeles. Passing on Quinton Byfield will be a tough call for the Kings to make, but in the end, it’s Stutzle lethality and versatility as a goal-scoring winger with a deadly shot that should seal the deal.
3. Anaheim Ducks: Quinton Byfield, C, Sudbury (OHL)
The Ducks already have one of the top center prospects in playmaker Trevor Zegras, but the 6-4 Byfield can be just as crafty and accurate with his passes. When you factor in his size and high hockey IQ, incredible balance, and elite puck protection, Byfield has the potential to become the best player from this draft. He wins well over half of his faceoffs, is an excellent penalty killer and his deceptive quickness continues to confuse the most fleet-footed OHL defenders.
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4. Ottawa Senators: Marco Rossi, C, Ottawa (OHL)
The first of Ottawa’s 14 picks at the 2020 draft has the puck skills and dynamism to become its most memorable. Although scoring in the OHL is at a 25-year high, you can’t fault the Austrian-born Rossi for taking advantage of it. Not only does he lead all three Canadian major junior leagues with 105 points, but Rossi’s league-best 2.10 points per game would join him with Connor McDavid, Taylor Hall, John Tavares, Patrick Kane and Jason Spezza as the OHL’s only first-year draft eligibles to finish first in that category in the last 20 years.
5. Ottawa Senators via San Jose: Cole Perfetti, LW, Saginaw (OHL)
Speaking of OHL dominance, this dual-threat has been terrorizing both OHL and international competition with either his elite goal-scoring proclivity or his pinpoint set-ups near the goal. Much like Lafreniere and Rossi, Perfetti has already eclipsed the 100-point mark and is among the top scorers in junior hockey. The rebuilding Sens have plenty of picks and prospects, but the combination of Rossi and Perfetti could one day give the organization one of the league’s most lethal one-two scoring punches.
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6. New Jersey Devils: Alexander Holtz, RW, Djugardens (SHL)
The Devils are set up nicely at center ice for the near future with recent first-overall picks Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier, but the organization still lacks a premier finisher. Enter Holtz, who has been a top-nine regular for Djugardens in the tough SHL and is scoring at one of the league’s highest rates for under-18 draft eligibles. This kid has one of the best shot-release combinations of any recent draft prospect, let alone the entire 2020 class. He’s a strong skater and a consistent breakaway threat, but Holtz also is a low-maintenance scorer who can label his shots from just about anywhere.
7. Chicago Blackhawks: Lucas Raymond, LW, Frolunda (SHL)
The rebuild in Chicago is taking longer than expected, and you have to wonder how much longer the Hawks can benefit from star veterans Kane and Jonathan Toews. Chicago’s most recent string of first-round picks are gifted in the puck skills department, but not a single one of them, including center Kirby Dach, plays with the kind of momentum-changing ferocity and intensity like Raymond. He may not be lighting up the scoresheet in the SHL, but playing on a fourth line for a contender like Frolunda is the critical detail that helps explain it. Raymond is an excellent playmaker with top-end speed, but he also backchecks and pressures opponents relentlessly while he’s off the puck.
8. Buffalo Sabres: Jamie Drysdale, RHD, Erie (OHL)
Speaking of long rebuilds, this season in Buffalo has been anything but enjoyable for impatient Sabres fans. Career years from Jack Eichel and Rasmus Dahlin notwithstanding, the franchise is dying for help at multiple positions, and an explosive and mature puck-rusher like Drysdale would solidify the defense corps in no time. The Otters are a thin team that relies on him to do most of the heavy lifting in all situations, and although Drysdale isn’t physically imposing, he knows how to defend and makes fantastic reads that result in immediate counterattacks.
9. Montreal Canadiens: Jake Sanderson, LHD, U.S. U18 (NTDP)
Sanderson is the straw that stirs the drink for the NTDP, which has been one of the top shutdown squads the program has ever assembled; but the Montana native and future North Dakota Fighting Hawk is not just a punishing defender who excels in his own end. He also has an advanced hockey brain that compliments his speed, vision and shot accuracy, thus making it easy for any coach to earmark him as the go-to option in all situations. Think of the 6-1, 186-pound Sanderson as a Ryan McDonagh-Shea Weber hybrid who shouldn’t be in college for long. His father Geoff, is a former 40-goal scorer for the Hartford Whalers with over 1,100 NHL games played.
10. Minnesota Wild: Anton Lundell, C, HIFK (SM-Liiga)
A big-bodied, two-way center who can snipe is an asset any franchise would gladly accept, and Lundell has more than made his presence felt as a top-six player for a contending HIFK squad. He has a sturdy build and strong balance that helps him excel in the puck-possession game, but what stands out the most about Lundell is his shot; few centers with his awareness and two-way abilities can label his shots as well as Lundell, and pairing him with a versatile two-way winger like 2019 first rounder Matthew Boldy could provide the Wild with one heck of a shutdown line.
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11. New Jersey Devils via Arizona: Yaroslav Askarov, G, SKA-NEVA (VHL)
Matching superior production with superior talent is something a 17-year-old goalie will rarely accomplish in a men’s league, even for a prodigy like Askarov, who’s had an up-and-down draft season. When he’s at his best, however, nobody can deny his ability to get in the heads of opposing shooters and gobble up every second and third-chance attempt in the most chaotic of circumstances near his cage. The Devils need a franchise goalie to build around, and owning three first-round picks makes taking a netminder this high an easy decision for interim GM Tom Fitzgerald.
12. Winnipeg Jets: Kaiden Guhle, LHD, Prince Albert (WHL)
A monster in his own end and aggressive with the puck while headed the other way, Guhle offers the rare combination of strength and quickness in a big-bodied defenseman. The Jets broke from tradition last draft by not only selecting an offensive-minded defender in Ville Heinola but also icing one of the smallest backlines in Kevin Cheveldayoff’s tenure as GM. Drafting a potential No. 1 in Guhle will help bring normalcy back to Winnipeg.
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13. Florida Panthers: Rodion Amirov, RW, Tolpar (MHL)
The Panthers up front have a ton of skill at both the NHL and prospect level, but Amirov has the potential to go straight to the top of a list that already includes Grigory Denisenko and Owen Tippett. Although Amirov is a scoring winger just like those two, he’s way more selfless and defensively aware.
14. New York Rangers: Dylan Holloway, LW, Wisconsin (Big-10)
If the upstart Rangers want to make themselves tougher to play against, then the perfect piece to add to their impressive collection of youngsters is Holloway, a smart power winger with a mean streak who can fill various roles. He’s got the size, shot power and hands to be a threat in the offensive zone, but the Calgary native is also defensively responsible and skates fast enough to neutralize opposing counterattacks.
15. Carolina Hurricanes: Seth Jarvis, C/W, Portland (WHL)
The 'Canes sure love skilled forwards, but few draft prospects can be as good in their own end as they are with the puck in the scoring areas as Jarvis. He’s been red hot for the better part of the last 20 games, averaging nearly three points a contest and providing the Winterhawks with scoring chances during any situation regardless of what the scoreboard reads. He brings his best onto the ice every shift.
16. Nashville Predators: Jack Quinn, RW, Ottawa (OHL)
Much like Jarvis, Quinn is a hard-working forward who also possesses superior puck skills; specifically in the form of scoring from all areas within the offensive zone. He is a deadly option on the power play, but also is used on the penalty kill and will be on the ice in all critical late/close situations. The Preds drafted a speed demon out of the OHL last season in Phil Tomasino, so they should be more than aware of Quinn’s ongoing rampage against goalies and defenses.
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17. Calgary Flames: Dawson Mercer, C, Chicoutimi (QMJHL)
A midseason trade from Drummondville to a powerhouse contender like Chicoutimi has hurt Mercer in the production department, as his points-per-game average with his new team is a quarter-of-a-point lower. Nonetheless, Mercer is a selfless two-way center with a lot of pizzazz on the puck and can make opponents pay for their mistakes. He’d be the perfect complement for Calgary’s 2018 first-round pick Jakob Pelletier, whose Moncton Wildcats are battling Mercer’s Sagueneens for first place in the QMJHL’s Eastern Conference. (Editor's note: Dawon Mercer left the Feb. 27 game with an upper-body injury.)
18. Columbus Blue Jackets: William Wallinder, LHD, MODO J20 (Superelit)
A two-way defenseman who plays on MODO’s top pairing, Wallinder is an excellent skater with a booming shot who plays with an edge and can go coast-to-coast without hesitation. He ranks right up there with Sanderson and Drysdale in terms of game-breaking abilities and can handle an aggressive forecheck with poise and smart passes.
19. Ottawa Senators via New York Islanders: Braden Schneider, RHD, Brandon (WHL)
If the Sens go for a pair of skilled forwards with their first two picks, then it makes sense to add a hard-hitting, two-way blueliner like Schneider. He knows exactly when to turn off his defense-first switch and attack with confidence, and he uses his sturdy frame, quick thinking and long reach to keeps plays alive in the offensive end. Ottawa has several quality defense prospects at multiple levels, but a big defenseman with wheels and physicality is something any prospect pool would welcome.
20. New York Rangers via Carolina and Toronto: Jan Mysak, C, Hamilton (OHL)
A prolific scorer who outproduced the likes of Martin Necas, Filip Chytil, Filip Zadina and Martin Kaut during his time in the Czech Republic’s elite Extraliga, Mysak is now tearing up the OHL for the Hamilton Bulldogs since joining them in January. Not only is he an expert finisher, but Mysak’s willingness to adapt to the North American game has made him more of a complete player. As deep as the Rangers are down on the farm, the system lacks a forward with Mysak’s excitability and shorthanded scoring prowess.
21. Edmonton Oilers: Jacob Perreault, RW, Sarnia (OHL)
Soft hands and deadly shot accuracy are two things required to be considered a sniper, and Perreault displays both on the regular. He’s eclipsed the 30-goal mark in each of his first two OHL seasons, so the Oilers know they’re getting a kid who can fill the net with consistency. Perreault, whose father Yanic was one of the NHL’s premier faceoff men during his 14-year career, might be a little quicker than his old man, which makes him an ideal target to groom alongside the likes of either McDavid or Leon Draisaitl
22. Philadelphia Flyers: Mavrik Bourque, C, Shawinigan (QMJHL)
The Flyers have found success when drafting prolific major junior scorers six feet tall or under (Claude Giroux, Travis Konecny, Morgan Frost), so they wouldn’t be averse to targeting an incredibly smooth scorer like the 5-11 Bourque. There’s a lot of flash and pizzazz to his game, but he also knows when to dial it down and focus on play away from the puck such as forechecking, hitting and penalty killing.
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23. Colorado Avalanche: Connor Zary, C, Kamloops (WHL)
Avs GM Joe Sakic may not admit it publicly, but he clearly has a type when it comes to drafting in the first round — four of his last five first-round picks came from Western Canada. In Zary, he’ll be scooping up an excellent two-way center who is one of the better set-up men and power-play specialists available. He’s tough on the puck and displays a strong desire to win.
24. New Jersey Devils via Vancouver and Tampa Bay: Lukas Reichel, LW, Eisbaren Berlin (DEL)
The Devils continue with the winger theme by grabbing one of the most complete forwards available. Much like Stutzle, Reichel has been a regular contributor as a teenager in the DEL, and he, too, put on an impressive showing at the world junior championship. Reichel, whose uncle Robert is a former 40-goal scorer with the Flames, displays an impressive assortment of moves and shots as he moves closer to the goal. He can excel on the power play but also understands coverage when defending against the rush or an opposing cycle.
25. Dallas Stars: Noel Gunler, RW, Lulea (SHL)
The Stars have a handful of SHL full timers in their farm system, so rest assured that they know all about the prolific scoring abilities of Gunler, who in limited time on a contending Lulea squad still manages to involve himself offensively in both the playmaking and shooting departments. Still, his overall game needs refinement and you’d like to see a stronger willingness to battle for pucks; however, he owns an elite shot and soft hands while using his 6-1 frame to protect the puck during forays into traffic.
26. Minnesota Wild via Pittsburgh: Emil Andrae, LHD, HV71 J20 (SHL)
Wild fans may be a little gun shy towards drafting another Swedish defenseman in the first round after the stalled development of questionable 2018 first rounder Filip Johansson, but Andrae is a totally different defender in several ways. For starters, he’s an exceptional offensive catalyst who can skate and shoot at a high level in addition to distributing the puck with both flair and authority. Andrae is listed at only 5-9 but packs a lot of punch in his smaller frame and can log No. 1 minutes while serving in all situations. He plays a similar game to Senators’ prospect Erik Brannstrom.
27. San Jose Sharks via Tampa Bay: Brendan Brisson, C, Chicago (USHL)
It’s unfortunate for the Sharks that the Senators (via the Erik Karlsson deal) will walk away with their projected top-five pick, but Brisson would be a solid late-first grab for a team who could use a center to build around. He’s been the top pivot on the best team in the USHL, and his size and work ethic on and off the ice are equally as impressive as his smarts and finishing abilities. He’s committed to Michigan, but his development is accelerating rapidly.
28. Vegas Golden Knights: Marat Khusnutdinov, C, SKA-1946 (MHL)
It’s no surprise that former Capitals GM George McPhee carried his pro-Russian draft tactics over to Vegas, which in the last three years has selected the likes of forwards Ivan Morozov and Pavel Dorofeyev. In Khusnutdinov, the Golden Knights would be adding an explosive 200-foot center with a legit arsenal of moves and trickery that are reminiscent of the old Red Army squads from the 1970s and 1980s. Truth be told, if this dynamo played in a North American junior league, he’d probably be in the conversation for the top 10 of the draft.
29. Washington Capitals: Vasily Ponomaryov, C, Shawinigan (QMJHL)
The Caps are set in the defense department, so adding skill to their pool of next-generation forwards should once again be a draft priority. Much like 2019 first-rounder Connor McMichael, Ponomaryov is a dual-threat center who can wow you with skill in open ice and orchestrate a lethal power play. He plays a lot stronger than his 5-10, 178-pound measurements would indicate, but the name of Ponomaryov’s game is skill on the puck. He’s capable of some highlight-reel plays but can also contribute on the penalty kill and be matched up against opposing top centers.
30. St. Louis Blues: Thomas Bordeleau, C, U.S. U18 (NTDP)
The high price of contending and Cup-winning has whittled St. Louis’ once-plentiful farm system down to only a handful of NHL-caliber prospects, but adding a cerebral multi-use center like Bordeleau would inject some much-needed skill into the prospect pool. He’s been the NTDP’s top offensive player throughout the season, which means something when you consider how a chunk of their schedule has been against the top teams in college hockey. Bordeleau has a penchant for big goals and timely plays.
31. Anaheim Ducks via Boston: J.J. Peterka, LW, Red Bull Munich (DEL)
A turbo-charged winger with excellent speed and acceleration, Peterka is another German-trained forward who has carved out an impressive pre-draft season playing in Germany’s premier hockey league. He may not be the person a coach summons to kill a penalty or deliver a big check, but Peterka’s brilliance with the puck and elite scoring prowess can be just as big of a momentum changer. He can be as good of a set-up man as he is a finisher, but Peterka’s sick hands and deadly shot-release would be a nice complement to set-up men like Zegras and Byfield.