Even smart franchises need a lot of luck.
The Maple Leafs have overhauled their entire organization over the past two years, and the much-publicized rebuild scored a huge victory Saturday night. Toronto won the 2016 NHL Draft lottery, and now owns the No. 1 pick.
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Auston Matthews, who grew up in Arizona, is the odds-on favorite to be the No. 1 pick. He spent the 2015-16 season playing in Switzerland for former NHL coach Marc Crawford and should step into the Maple Leafs’ lineup in October.
While landing the opportunity to draft Matthews is a huge coup for the Maple Leafs, it is important to point out he does not represent the starting point. When the Oilers tore down the roster and started over, Taylor Hall was the first key part of the rebuild, and while Edmonton continued to land high draft picks, the front office failed dramatically to complement those precious talents with a strong supporting cast.
The Maple Leafs have already begun to amass a collection of dynamic, young talent. Players like William Nylander, Kasperi Kapanen and Nikita Soshnikov made their NHL debuts this season, and 2015 first-round pick Mitch Marner will likely join Matthews as contenders for the Calder Trophy in 2016-17.
Team president Brendan Shanahan and his army of smart people will be tasked with finding veterans to put with this talented young core, which could also include established NHLers Nazem Kadri, Morgan Rielly and Jake Gardiner. It certainly looks like an inviting situation to join for free agents, like say a former No. 1 pick who grew up in Toronto but currently plays for Tampa Bay.
While this is a great night for the Leafs, the biggest winner is probably the Jets. Winnipeg finished last in a stout Central Division in 2015-16, but there is a lot of present talent and potential improvement already on the roster. The Jets moved up four spots, from No. 6 to No. 2.
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The Jets have one of the top collections of young NHL talent, led by forwards Mark Schiefele and Nikolaj Ehlers and defenseman Jacob Trouba. Add in the No. 2 pick, and steps forward from prospects like Nic Petan, Josh Morrissey and Kyle Connor, and the Jets could be one of the league’s most improved teams in 2016-17.
The other two players likely to round out the top three are from Finland, which has three players capable of landing in the top 10 selections. Patrick Laine and Jesse Puljujarvi were linemates at the world junior championships, and terrorized opponents with their blend of skill and size, and also have experience playing against seasoned veterans in professional leagues.
One of them will likely end up with the Jets, and the other with the Blue Jackets, who also moved up a spot to No. 3.The biggest losers were the Oilers, Canucks and Flames, who were all forced to move in the draft because the Jets and Blue Jackets moved up. Edmonton and Calgary already has several young, cornerstone-type players in place. Vancouver, which dropped from No. 3 to No. 5, is arguably the team that needs a transformative player more than any in the lottery.
There will be an unprecedented amount of interest in this draft in Canada, because none of the seven teams located in the country made the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
While Canadian NHL teams will dominate the top of the draft, Canadian-born players will not. It is entirely possible that there could be more players from both the United States and Finland in the top 10 than Canadians.
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One player who could break up the Matthews-Laine-Puljujarvi troika is another American and one with a famous last name. Matthew Tkachuk has been lighting up the Ontario Hockey League playoffs for London, and Keith’s son seems like a strong bet to be a top-five selection.
Want to envision a top five with no Canadian players? Swedish forward Alexander Nylander (yep, he’s Michael’s son and William’s brother) and Russian defenseman Mikhail Sergachev could end as top-five selections as well. There has been at least two Canadians in the top five every year since 2000, and the last Canadian-less top five was in 1999, when one family in Sweden produced 40 percent of it.
While Matthews is expected to be a franchise center in the NHL, it’s possible that Laine, Puljujarvi, Nylander and Tkachuk all end up on the wing. The top Canadian forward, Pierre-Luc Dubois, might not be a center, either. It’s certainly plausible that a team in the top five or six could look outside that group of forwards for a prospect more likely to play in the middle.
There’s another fun quirk to watch for near the top of the 2016 draft. Defenseman Jacob Chychrun and center Logan Brown are both candidates to be taken in the top 10-12 selections.
Both are sons of former NHL players. What’s incredible is that Jeff Brown was the No. 36 pick in the 1984 NHL Draft, and Jeff Chychrun went one pick later at No. 37.
The 2016 draft will take place in Buffalo at First Niagara Center. Expect there to be thousands of Maple Leafs fans in attendance.
Oh, and to those Maple Leafs fans, Matthews’ preferred sweater has been No. 34. That number, thanks to James Reimer’s trade to the Sharks before the 2016 trade deadline, is now open.
Here is the draft list after the lottery for the 14 teams that didn't make the postseason:
1. Toronto Maple Leafs
2. Winnipeg Jets
3. Columbus Blue Jackets
4. Edmonton Oilers
5. Vancouver Canucks
6. Calgary Flames
7. Arizona Coyotes
8. Buffalo Sabres
9. Montreal Canadiens
10. Colorado Avalanche
11. New Jersey Devils
12. Ottawa Senators
13. Carolina Hurricanes
14. Boston Bruins