When a season is three games old in the NHL, there are rarely anything approaching definitive conclusions to be drawn.
The Penguins will start to score goals. The Bruins will (probably) stop leaking them. That said, there is one team accustomed to being considered among the NHL’s elite whose sluggish start might — heavy emphasis on might — be in real trouble.
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The Kings have played three home games, all against teams in their division, and have lost them all. They got smoked by the Sharks, but San Jose might just need a mulligan for 2014-15 and the peculiar offseason that proceeded it.
They lost by three goals to the Coyotes, who were projected by just about everyone to be in the Auston Matthews sweepstakes, but maybe just chalk that one up to a couple bad bounces in front of goalie Jonathan Quick.
Then the Kings had three days off, and welcomed the Canucks to Staples Center. The Canucks played the night before down the I-5 freeway in Anaheim, and that game went to a shootout. This was a perfect opportunity for the Kings to pick off a tired team after working out some early kinks in practice.
The Canucks cruised to a 3-0 win, and the Kings had six shots on goal in the first 34 minutes. The Kings have allowed 12 goals in three games, and the next game they score two in will be the first.
They will have another chance against a tired team Friday, when the Wild will be in town after playing in Glenadale, Ariz., the night before.
This might be a one-week blip on the road back to the Stanley Cup Playoffs. The Kings were incredibly unlucky to miss the postseason last year. It is possible, though, that this is a harbinger of more trouble ahead.
So, what might be wrong with the Kings, the team that won the Stanley Cup twice and made three straight conference finals appearances before last season? Some of the problems began before captain Dustin Brown skated over to collect the Cup for a second time in June 2014.
1. Lots of roster turnover
Both times the Kings won the Cup, general manager Dean Lombardi brought back nearly the same team the following season. The number of 2014 title winners still on the team has shrunk significantly since the start of last season.
Willie Mitchell left before it started. Slava Voynov, Mike Richards and Jarret Stoll, well, more on them in a bit, but they’re all gone. Robyn Regehr retired. Martin Jones was traded. Justin Williams signed with the Capitals. Even Andrej Sekera, who was essentially a Voynov replacement at the trade deadline, ended up just being a rental after he signed with the Oilers.
That’s a lot of turnover, and that’s the not the end of the potential issues with the roster.
2. Loyal GM Dean Lombardi was burned by loyalty
The biggest mistake was obviously Richards. He had already declined and was skating on the fourth line when the Kings won in 2014, and Lombardi had a get-out-of-jail-free card to use, but didn’t. No compliance buyout for Richards, and it’s been a disaster ever since.
It’s not just Richards though. Brown is pretty clearly not the same player he was a few years ago. Marian Gaborik had an amazing 2014 playoff run, and his contract was below market value at the time, but he’s also 33 and has 50 regular-season goals in his past 153 games (three seasons). Here are some thoughts on Quick’s contract.
Role players, like Matt Greene, Dwight King and Kyle Clifford all received contract extensions which might have been OK, but a cap-strapped team needs to cycle those types of players out for comparable ones who cost less.
Choosing to keep Greene and Regehr while letting Mitchell doesn’t look good. It’s very early, but choosing to give up great assets in a trade for Milan Lucic as a replacement for Williams doesn’t look good.
3. Breaking the law does not help
Voynov was a great player for the Kings, but what he did is unforgivable. The NHL and the Kings were in the process of earning passing grades for how the situation was handled, but then Los Angeles let him practice with the team for a day in an utterly bizarre move.
Stoll’s and Richards’ drug arrests were less grievous, but brought further distraction and disarray. Stoll was a pending free agent and his play was in severe decline, so the Kings cut ties after his arrest and moved on, but he was reportedly in Las Vegas with other members of the organization at the time of his arrest.
Paying Richards to go away is going to cut into the team’s salary cap space until 2031. Lombardi's decision to not cut Richards when he had the chance last summer because of his faith in the failing center has been an undoing of sorts. It would be naïve to think this won't affect how Lombardi does business in the future.
These were all separate incidents, and those three players are all gone but what if the group that stayed and weathered all of this just isn’t the same?
4. The system might not be a perfect fit anymore
When the Kings were atop the NHL, they were a perfect marriage of analytics and the other stuff (OK, intangibles). Coach Darryl Sutter’s system is very demanding of players, just like the coach can be.
The Kings were the best team at not letting the opponent play offense. It was a combination of being great at not letting teams enter the offensive zone cleanly, great at getting the puck out of the defensive zone and great at creating turnovers on the other team’s side of the ice.
They dump-and-chase more than the other elite puck possession teams, but it plays into Sutter’s max-effort, full-court press strategy. When the Kings are flying around, it can be hockey’s version of brutal poetry in motion. Dump the puck in the corner, hit the defenseman, hit the guy he passed it to, cause a turnover, create a scoring chance.
That same system can unravel if everyone isn’t exerting max effort, some players are not quick or fast enough to execute it or a combination of the two. During the 2014 title run, multiple Kings admitted that it might not be possible to execute Sutter’s plan at an optimal level for six months, hence the team’s regular-season lulls.
The Kings were also the team that welcomed players with negative reputations and reformed them. Richards and Jeff Carter shed their image issues to become champions in 2012. Gaborik looked like a revelation as a dominant two-way player after arriving in 2014.
Some of the credit for that culture had to go to a group of well-respected veterans in the dressing room. Mitchell and Williams were clearly two of those players, and they are gone.
Trying to quantify how much the problems of the past year, or the leadership drain or how the players feel about Sutter might have a negative effect on the results would be silly, but ignoring that any or all of it might have an effect would be as well.
The potential for more struggles remains, most especially because the roster isn’t as strong even with great players like Anze Kopitar and Drew Doughty. Sixteen months ago, the Kings had the deepest lineup in the league and won the Stanley Cup again because of it. That’s no longer the case.
Maybe the issues will get sorted out. Hey, they were second in the league in Corsi For percentage at even strength heading into the games Thursday night (that was heavily influenced by the score, and being behind in every game).
But it is also possible that the warning signs are there right now, and this could be another long winter in Los Angeles.