TORONTO—The great shot-quality experiment in Toronto has sucked up oxygen in the early going of this season. It's as if there are two black holes at Front and Bay: the Maple Leafs, and the perpetual construction at Union Station.
The 2013-14 Maple Leafs are seen as the highest-profile test case yet for shot-based analytics in hockey, and so far the club is outperforming quantitative probabilities.
LEAFS NATION: The great experiment | Don Cherry: Stat geek?
In racking up wins even as "trendy" metrics predict their ultimate mediocrity, the Maple Leafs have become the toast of old-school hockey enthusiasts. Of course, there are also statistical analysts beginning to suggest that beyond Toronto's special teams mastery and quality goaltending, they may have stumbled upon something of value at even strength. Something unseen, or unaccounted for by the underlying numbers.
Hockey alchemists Dave Nonis and Randy Carlyle watched their Maple Leafs — this year's celebrated shot-quality test case — improve to 6-1-0 on the season on Tuesday night. The Leafs blew out the Minnesota Wild — yesterday's celebrated shot-quality test case — 4-1. True to form, Toronto's club was outshot 37-14 overall, and 17-3 in the first period (even as they built themselves a two goal lead).
Perhaps because they've accrued a more pedestrian record in the early going — 3-2-2, with an even goal differential — the equally ambitious experiment underway in the State of Hockey has escaped notice. Relatively speaking.
But what the Minnesota Wild are doing so far this season, results aside, is practically unheard of. For years the Wild have been crushed at even-strength, pinned in their own end, and reliant on goaltending and against-the-grain offense for points.
In 2011-12, the last time the NHL played a full season, the Wild got off to a hot start before succumbing to the forces of gravity. At season's end, the Wild had been outscored by 47 at five-a-side, while controlling 44.2 percent of shot attempts.
The additions of Zach Parise and Ryan Suter in 2013 paid immediate dividends, unsurprisingly. Minnesota's first line and top pair were able to dictate play in a fashion totally beyond the 2011-12 version of the club. Still, the Wild were outscored by 11 goals at even strength (over a 48-game season) while finishing modestly below 50 percent in controlled shot attempts at even-strength.
"Last year it just felt like we were chasing the puck the whole game," Wild forward Zach Parise said on Tuesday. "This year we're making plays off the rush and it's more fun."
The Wild aren't just making plays off the rush — they're dominating the puck. It's early yet, but the Wild lead all teams in the league in shot-attempt differential through seven games, hovering north of 60 percent. Minnesota's club is permitting the fewest shot attempts in the league, while generating the third most. If controlling games is more fun for a skilled player like Parise, it also has the added benefit of probably proving more effective too — if not on Tuesday night, then over the long run.
So what's responsible for the massive improvement in the Wild's ability to possess the puck in the early going this season? Personnel is a big part.
"Jason Pominville is a guy — we acquired him late in the season last year but didn't really get to see the full benefit," coach Mike Yeo told reporters before Tuesday's game. "He got hurt quickly and obviously was a huge loss for us, but we knew going forward that having him going into this season was going to make a huge difference for us. Mikael Granlund, who has taken a huge step — that's been a big addition. A guy like Matt Cooke, Justin Fontain — these are guys who've come in and really added a lot."
The added forward depth is a huge part of this story, of course. Last season, no Wild line beyond the Mikko Koivu-Parise-Charlie Coyle combination regularly won their matchup from a territorial perspective. Through seven games this season, no regular Wild forward line has lost theirs.
But there's more to it than personnel. The additions of Pominville and Matt Cooke and the graduation of a couple of young players isn't sufficient to convincingly explain how, all of a sudden, the Minnesota Wild are handing opponents their teeth with startling consistency.
Another factor: a change in strategy and philosophy from Yeo, who spent this past summer designing a new offensive system better suited to the club's plethora of puck-moving defenseman, and their stable of fast-skating forwards.
The Wild have eschewed the dump and chase this season, in favor of gaining the blue line with speed and possession. The defensemen are activating more often. In fact, Wild defenders have already contributed four goals through seven games, where the Minnesota defense managed just 15 goals in 48 games last season.
On Tuesday night, the Wild recorded 31 entries with control of the puck, and only dumped-and-chased in Toronto's end on 22 occasions. Even then, four of those dump-and-chase situations coincided with partial line changes. Take the results from a single game against a relatively flimsy puck possession club with a whole truckload of salt, but that's a rate of controlled entries well above what hockey analytics consultant Eric Tulsky, who designed the zone-entry project and presented his findings at the 2013 Sloan Conference, has observed to be the norm: just under 50 percent, excluding dump-and-change plays.
"One thing I do an awful lot of is watch a lot of video. I watch video on our team and watch a lot of video on other teams," Yeo said. "Bottom line is we want to win a Stanley Cup. We looked at some of things we were doing and we felt we were good enough to get there, obviously — to have a chance to compete for a Stanley Cup and get to the playoffs — but we felt if we really wanted to become a contender we were going to have to take another step."
"Defensively we do a lot of good things, but offensively? That was the area we had to take the biggest step."
It's an increased emphasis on puck possession that the Wild have decided to pursue, as a means to the ultimate end in hockey. As Yeo said, "This is how we think that we can make that change."
Parise has noticed that the club has "way more puck control," this season. According to him, the changes "play to our team's strengths."
"We're moving the puck well, creating a lot, our D are jumping in and we've got the puck a lot," Parise told reporters, "This year... we have the puck more so you get a little more offense."
At least that's the theory. The Wild have been frustrated by the bounces in the offensive end to begin the season. As a team, the Wild are shooting well under 5 percent at even strength. "We can't dwell on it, it'll come," Yeo said. "If you're getting chances you're doing good things, and if you're doing good things you'll get rewarded."
"We're doing good, getting the chances, controlling the play. We're not worried (that the puck) will start going in," said Parise following Tuesday night's loss. He then added, "There's no consolation in us coming here and saying, 'oh, we outshot them,' 'we outplayed them.' We didn't win. That's happened too much this season."
Cooke added some additional perspective, "You can plays Xs and Os all you want, but you still have to go out and play... I'd like to think that if we play 82 games the way we did tonight we're going to be successful."
If you trust the underlying numbers, they tell you that Cooke is very probably correct.
Thomas Drance is a contributor to The Nation Network, a Sporting News partner, and a news editor for theScore.com. Follow him on Twitter: @ThomasDrance.