NHL standings: Who has the edge for eighth in the East?

Ben Valentine

NHL standings: Who has the edge for eighth in the East? image

For much of the last couple of months, the Eastern Conference playoff picture seemed to be locked down.

At the top were the Lightning and Islanders, with the Penguins and Red Wings right behind. The Canadiens and Rangers looked the weakest, at least according to possession numbers. Yet a Hart Trophy-worthy campaign out of Carey Price has the Habs at the top of the conference, while the Rangers, thanks to Rick Nash and Henrik Lundqvist (prior to his injury) are right with the Penguins.

The Capitals continue to chug along, just behind their Metropolitan rivals.

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Which brings us to the team that can’t seem to sustain success — the Bruins.

Consider Boston has 64 points. The next closest playoff team, the Capitals, has 72. And the teams chasing the Bruins? The Panthers are just behind with 62 points. The Flyers are within striking distance with 58. Heck, even the Senators and Blue Jackets are on the fringes, with 54 and 53 points respectively.

Could we really be nearing a world where the Bruins, last year’s Presidents' Trophy winners, don’t make the playoffs?

It’s no longer out of the realm of possibility. But "possible" doesn’t necessarily mean "likely." So today we decided see which team, if any, has a statistical edge down the stretch. All numbers presented are 5v5 and from stats.hockeyanalysis.com or war-on-ice.com.

Overall

Team GP FF% CF% Sh% Sv% PDO
Boston 56 51.3 52.1 7.54 92.68 100.2
Florida 56 51.4 51.3 7.15 92.55 99.7
Philadelphia 57 48.3 49 7.61 92.62 100.2
Ottawa 55 47.9 50 8.2 92.44 100.6
Columbus 55 46.2 46.1 7.63 91.36 99

As you can see, the Bruins and Panthers are the two solid possession teams in all even-strength situations. When you remove blocked shots from the equation, the Bruins and Flyers come out a bit better, though Philadelphia still lags behind the top two. The Senators, interestingly enough, make a huge jump. Still, the Bruins look the better team here, while the Blue Jackets trail behind.

Close situations

Team GP FF% CF% Sh% Sv% PDO
Boston 56 51.3 52.2 8.13 92.32 100.4
Florida 56 50.9 51.2 7.36 92.24 99.6
Philadelphia 57 47.8 48.6 7.62 92.75 100.4
Ottawa 55 46.7 48.8 7.68 92.64 100.3
Columbus 55 45.5 45.3 7.69 91.55 99.2

A reminder — close situations are defined as games that are within a goal in the first two periods or tied in the third. When you look at this sample the Bruins and Panthers come out roughly the same: they are essentially as good with possession in close situations as they are in all other situations.

Four of the teams own better Corsi numbers than Fenwick numbers, but the biggest gainers, the Flyers and Senators, still aren’t over 50 percent. Once again the Bruins appear to come out ahead. And once again, the Blue Jackets look terrible. 

Recent play

Team Gm FF% CF% OSh% OSv% PDO
OTT 21 51.7 53.7 9.7 91.4 101.1
BOS 21 51.4 51.8 7.2 92.9 100.1
PHI 23 49.3 50.6 7.1 92.8 99.9
FLA 24 51.6 50 7.9 92.1 100
CBJ 22 46.2 46.3 9.7 91.1 100.8

We’re defining "recent" as since the Christmas break, or the last quarter of the season. 

The Panthers and Bruins are not far off their pace for most of the year. But the Senators shoot up, especially when you look at their Corsi percentage. In fact, over that time, the Senators are seventh in the league in Corsi For percentage. So, on the surface, it looks like when it comes down to process, the Senators are playing their best hockey. For the record, so are the Flyers. 

But let’s dig a little deeper.

Recent play in close situations

Team Gm FF% CF% OSh% OSv% PDO
BOS 21 51.9 53.1 7.9 92.8 100.7
OTT 21 50.4 52.5 9.5 91.5 101.1
PHI 23 49.4 50.3 6.2 93.4 99.6
FLA 24 49.8 50.3 8.5 90.9 99.3
CBJ 22 46.2 46.6 9.9 90.5 100.4

These numbers are also interesting. The Senators remain strong, though not quite as good as they are in all situations. Meanwhile, the Bruins actually come out the best, playing better when the game is close. The Flyers also see a bump in their production in close situations.

The Panthers’ numbers drop a bit. They’re actually a sub-50 Fenwick team over that stretch in close situations. Their numbers are near identical to the Flyers.

As for the Blue Jackets, well, one of these things is not like the others. One of these things does not belong.

Goalie play

All five teams have goalies that can be excellent. However, the Blue Jackets' Sergei Bobrovsky is sidelined with a lower-body injury. Steve Mason has been very good for the Flyers this year, but he too is likely out at least another couple of weeks.

Craig Anderson has also been sidelined with an injured hand. His return is up in the air, which is a problem since Robin Lehner is also out, leaving the Senators with a pair of untested goalies who put up uninspiring stats in the minors.

After a slow start, Tuukka Rask has rounded into form. He’s not having his best season, but is still pretty solid. Roberto Luongo is having a very good season and is seventh among starters in even-strength save percentage.

The top two teams have the top two goalies here, though if Anderson could ever return, he would provide an enormous boost to the Senators.

Speaking of the Senators, they changed coaches midseason. Here are their Corsi and Fenwick numbers with Paul MacLean through Dec.7:

Record FF% CF% FF% Close CF% Close SO Rec
11-11-5 45.3 47.7 44 46.2 2-2

And here they are under MacLean's replacement Dave Cameron:

Record FF% CF% FF% Close CF% Close SO Record
11-12-5 50.2 52 49.5 51.4 1-3

Without MacLean, the Senators have ranged from decent to good when it comes to possession, but are a game under .500 — though that could be attributed to a 2-2 record in shootouts with MacLean versus a 1-3 record without him.

The results have essentially been the same, but over the long haul, better possession numbers tend to equal better results. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Senators heat up a bit down the stretch, provided they don’t sell assets.

With that said, making up 10 points with just over 20 games to go is not easy, especially given overtime losses are still worth a point. Because of that, the Senators should be considered unlikely to make the postseason. Ditto for the Flyers who, while better, have six points to make up and have played the most games. The Blue Jackets, legitimate injury excuses, aren't good.

That leaves the Bruins and the Panthers, separated by just two points as of Feb. 18. The numbers and their reputation would make the Bruins slight favorites, but with that type of proximity anything is possible. And wouldn’t you know it, they play three times in the final three weeks of the season — March 21, March 31 and April 9.

Those three contests may well decide who grabs the Eastern Conference’s last playoff spot.

Ben Valentine