Long live the Kings of Corsi: Aging roster, scoring woes doomed LA's dynasty

Adam Gretz

Long live the Kings of Corsi: Aging roster, scoring woes doomed LA's dynasty image

With two years remaining on his contract, Drew Doughty is getting closer to having to make a long-term decision about where he's going to continue his career. 

This upcoming July he'll be eligible to sign a new extension with the Kings if he so chooses. If not, he'll have a clear path to unrestricted free agency, where he will undoubtedly be the top player available on the open market, and arguably one of the biggest free agents ever. His future became a brief talking point this past week thanks to an interview with The Hockey News where he talked about his primary objective being championships and not necessarily remaining with the Kings.

“My first love will always be L.A.,” Doughty told the magazine. “It’s one of the best organizations in all of sports, not just hockey. It’s unbelievable. They treat us first-class, and it’s a good place to play. Living in Los Angeles, you can’t beat it. I’d love to re-sign in L.A. But if our team isn’t going in the right direction … I want to win Cups. I don’t give a s— where I play. I just want to win Cups, and that’s the bottom line.”

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With that in mind, let’s ask a fairly important question, not only as it relates to Doughty’s future with the Kings, but the Kings’ future in general: What, exactly, is their direction at this point? And what sort of team are they going to be?

For most of Doughty’s career, the Kings have been one of the most successful teams in the NHL. 

Between 2011-14, the Kings reached the Western Conference finals each year and won two Stanley Cups. They were a mini dynasty in the making and it seemed inevitable that the Stanley Cup was going to come down to either them or the Blackhawks each year for the foreseeable future. 

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But in the three years since that last Stanley Cup win in 2014, the Kings have made the playoffs just once and were dumped in the first round in just five games. The 2016-17 season turned out to be their worst finish in the standings since 2008-09. What’s most interesting about that season is that a lot of the elements that made the Kings such a dominant team between 2011 and 2014 still existed.

They were, once again, the best possession team in the league based on shot attempt metrics. For the fifth year in a row they finished with the top five-on-five shot attempt percentage in the league. They were a suffocating defensive team that shut down opposing offenses, limiting teams to just 25.9 shots on goal per game, the lowest mark in the NHL. 

kings-graphic-091417-getty-ftr

Typically teams that dominate the possession game and suppress shots to that level are not only wildly successful (as the Kings were for an extended stretch), they tend to compete for — and win — Stanley Cups (as the Kings did). 

Looking at their lack of success over the past three years, it's easy to conclude one of two things: Either they have been laughably unlucky for three straight years, or there is something bigger and more troubling going on when you dig beneath the impressive numbers. 

It seems a lot easier to conclude the latter. An analytics darling being unlucky for one year and their results not matching the metrics? Plausible. It happens. 

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But three years in a row? It is probably safe to assume that there is something else going on. 

Even when they were at their best, the Kings were never a great offensive team. Their system under coach Darryl Sutter was all about defense and shutting teams down. There wasn’t much creativity offensively and a lot of times it almost seemed as if the approach was to throw enough pucks at the net that eventually they would break through based on nothing more than shot volume. Put enough pucks on net, eventually something is going to go in. That hasn’t changed much, either. 

What has changed, though, is the talent level on the Kings’ roster, especially at forward, and the rest of the league has seemingly caught up to the Kings’ style of play and surpassed it.

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When their championship run started in 2011 there were only 12 teams in the league that had a shot attempt percentage higher than 50 percent. This past season there were 17. Not only that, the gap between the top team in that area and the middle of the pack is smaller now than it was five or six years ago. 

Then there is the style of play. 

While the Kings’ game has been based primarily on size, strength and defense, the league has drastically shifted in recent years to a faster, more skilled game. Speed and playing fast is the calling card of pretty much every team in the league these days and the Kings, as presently constructed, do not really seem to have the personnel to play that style of hockey.

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Not only are they lacking in skill, but the skilled forwards they do have are starting to age.

Anze Kopitar is entering his age 30 season and is coming off one of his worst offensive seasons in the league. Dustin Brown is going to be 33 and is no longer a viable top-six scoring option. Jeff Carter is still a top-line goal-scorer but he is going to turn 33 this season. Marian Gaborik is 35 and has played more than 56 games in a season one time since 2011-12 and never more than 70 during that stretch. 

It’s worth wondering what sort of impact a new system from coach John Stevens will have, but it still comes down to talent. 

They added Mike Cammalleri this summer for his second stint with the team, but he is another mid-30s player coming off a down year. It is unlikely he rebounds back to his previous form. 

In a league that is now dominated by fast, young teams, the Kings were still clinging to a heavy, slower style of play with an aging roster. It is not a great combination. They might still be able to suppress shots and play great defense, but there is still something to be said for having scoring talent and finishing ability, and that is an important area the Kings really seem to be lacking in. 

There doesn’t seem to be a lot of help in that regard on the horizon.

Adam Gretz