The Jets hype train heading into 2023 took a brief hiatus before returning to full-steam ahead for 2024.
With Aaron Rodgers back and fully recovered from his Week 1 torn Achilles injury, the Jets have a lot of positive flowing with the 2024 regular season a few months away. Rodgers' return coupled with wide receiver Garrett Wilson, running back Breece Hall and new additions Mike Williams and Malachi Corley could be huge for the Jets' postseason chances.
Wilson should be especially exciting, as this would be his first season with a bonafide star under center after playing the past two years with a litany of less-than-desirable quarterbacks like Zach Wilson, Tim Boyle and more. However, Wilson's advanced analytics aren't that favorable unless Rodgers' presence completely elevates the wideouts play.
JETS 2024 NFL SEASON: Schedule primer | Opponents | Strength of Schedule
Ryan Heath of Fantasy Points looked at receivers' yards per catchable target versus their targets per route run to determine which wideouts are efficient and which are not. Wilson fell into the latter category of, as Heath put it, "inefficient compilers."
I've found a shockingly good view of overall receiving skill:
— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) April 22, 2024
Yards per CATCHABLE Target vs. Targets per Route Run @FantasyPtsData
Top-left: Efficient Role Players
Bottom-right: Inefficient Compilers
Basically everyone in the top-right is a really great receiver. pic.twitter.com/KMdXZEhXbV
This led fellow Fantasy Pros analyst Scott Barrett to write that Wilson has — analytically speaking — "just been 2020-2022 Diontae Johnson through this point in his career. Great separator, target hog. Nothing really to show for it."
The stats somewhat back this up. Through the past two seasons, Wilson wrack up 178 receptions on 315 targets for 2,145 total yards and seven touchdowns. He averaged 12.1 yards per reception, but only 6.8 yards per target.
Those numbers were slightly better than Johnson's during the stretch Barrett mentioned, as Johnson averaged 10.6 yards per reception and 6.4 yards per target. Coincidentally, Wilson's 6.8 yards per target tied with Johnson for the 41st out of 45 receivers with at least 100 receptions over the past two seasons. The 12.1 yards per reception ranked slightly higher than Johnson.
Now, the Johnson comparison doesn't make Wilson a bad wide receiver. Johnson, who was traded from the Steelers to the Panthers this offseason, has been one of the better possession receivers in the NFL recently. However, this analysis waters down the hype of Wilson heading into the 2024 season with a healthy Rodgers under center.
Wilson's awful quarterback play through the first two years of his NFL career cannot be discounted and likely played a considerable role in his production. There's no telling what Wilson would have been in 2023 if Rodgers had played. The same could be the case in 2024 with Rodgers.
However, the realistic juxtaposition of Wilson's advanced metrics paints a picture where he is closer to a quality pass-catcher than a superstar wide receiver. We'll see which assessment is right in 2024.
