The 2024 NFL Draft starts this evening (8 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN), and both fans and bettors will be watching intently with their rooting and betting interests in mind. The third overall pick in particular has generated a ton of intrigue, as the Patriots rarely find themselves this close to the top of the draft board.
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For months, the general consensus has been that New England will draft whichever of the top QBs is available at No. 3: LSU Heisman winner Jayden Daniels or UNC stud Drake Maye. However, J.J. McCarthy's name entered the proverbial group chat recently, leading many to believe that the only thing draft experts know for certain is that nothing is certain.
Let's discuss the possibilities at pick No. 3, go over the official NFL Draft odds on BetMGM, and explore the mock draft projections from the most heralded experts in the industry.
Who will the Patriots draft with the 3rd overall pick?
We've seen and heard all kinds of rumors around the Patriots leading up to draft day, including New England trading out of the spot and new GM Eliot Wolf selecting Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy over Drake Maye. But, the odds and the latest intel around Foxboro tell us that chalk will prevail and the Pats will take Maye if Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels go first and second.
Maye has more upside and star potential than McCarthy, giving New England a higher ceiling as opposed the higher floor that would come with the Michigan QB. With Jacoby Brissett back in New England for a bridge year, Jerod Mayo can ease Maye into his NFL career and not mangle his development like the Matt Patricia era did with former Pats QB Mac Jones.
MORE: Mock draft based on betting odds — projecting the top 10
It's still possible someone makes the Pats an offer that Wolf and the Krafts can't refuse, but the general consensus seems to be that New England will stick with the best available pick and go with Maye. He has most of the prototypical traits most GMs look for in a franchise QB: size, speed, arm strength, accuracy, poise under pressure and coachability.
We're not messing around with any sleepers here, although we admittedly got some hedge money in on McCarthy while he was still a long shot. Most of the rumors up here in New England are that Williams-Daniels-Maye will be the 1-2-3 exact order.
NFL DRAFT RANKINGS: QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | EDGE
Patriots 3rd pick betting odds
All odds courtesy of BetMGM
| Player | Odds |
| Drake Maye, QB (UNC) | -300 |
| J.J. McCarthy, QB (Michigan) | +200 |
| Jayden Daniels, QB (LSU) | +800 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr., WR (Ohio St.) | +1300 |
| Joe Alt, OT (Notre Dame) | +10000 |
| Caleb Williams, QB (USC) | +15000 |
| Bo Nix, QB (Oregon) | +15000 |
| Brock Bowers, TE (Georgia) | +15000 |
| Malik Nabers, WR (LSU) | +15000 |
SCOUTING REPORTS: Caleb Williams | Jayden Daniels | Drake Maye
Patriots mock draft projection
Here's the expert consensus for who will get picked No. 3 in tonight's NFL Draft:
| Expert | Prediction |
| Vinnie Iyer (Sporting News) | Drake Maye |
| Jacob Camenker (Sporting News) | Drake Maye |
| Mel Kiper (ESPN) | Drake Maye |
| Daniel Jeremiah (NFL Network) | Drake Maye |
| Dane Brugler (The Athletic) | Drake Maye |
That's a clean sweep! Based on the betting odds shifting shorter to Maye and all five respected NFL Draft experts going with the UNC QB, we can't possibly bet against New England going with the chalk here. It's not exciting, but at least we can bet on the top three order and cut out a lot of the juice that we would see if we bet each pick individually.
MORE 2024 NFL DRAFT: Safest picks | Riskiest picks | Top sleepers
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