The good news is that Aaron Rodgers is back to full health as the New York Jets' starting quarterback in 2024. The bad news is the 40-year-old signal-caller is well removed from his late-career MVP form with the Packers.
Rodgers goes into the critical Monday night home game vs. the Bills with below-average statistics for a 2-3 team. Ahead of Week 6, Rodgers, the all-time NFL leader in career passer rating (103.0), ranked No. 26 in that category (81.6) this season.
Rodgers also was No. 29 in yards per attempt (6.0) and No. 26 in completion percentage (61.0). Those are well off his career marks, too, of 7.7 and 65.2.
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The Jets haven't done a good job of helping Rodgers do what he needs to do to move the ball and deliver the needed consistent complementary offense for an often-dominant defense. New York, after five weeks, ranked No. 26 in total offense, No. 20 in passing offense, and dead last, No. 32 in rushing offense (80.4 yards per game). They also were No. 25 in average points per game (18.4).
Knowing all that, along with firing head coach Robert Saleh after the Week 5 loss to the Vikings in London, the team demoted Nathaniel Hackett as offensive coordinator, promoting Todd Downing to be Rodgers' new play-caller. Here's what Downing and the Jets' staff need to do to turn around the Rodgers-led offense.
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1. Commit to running the ball with Breece Hall and Braelon Allen
The Jets run only 36 percent of the time, No. 30 in the league. They tended to give up on the run with Hackett early. Against the Vikings, in what turned out to be a one-possession game in the second half, they called pass plays 80.3 percent of the time. Against the Broncos in a 10-9 loss at home in Week 4, they had 47 dropbacks to only 13 runs by running backs for a lopsided 78.3-percent difference.
Hall, the versatile lead back, and Allen, the strong complementary rookie, got a combined 34 touches in Week 3 in relation to 37 Rodgers' dropbacks. The backs produced 151 scrimmage yards in a 24-3 rout, In that game, Rodgers averaged 8.0 yards per attempt and rated 118.9.
The Jets should not be last in the league in rushing production with that pair in the backfield. They need more chances to get going and wear down defenses, and if the running game is tough sledding at first, they need to keep Hall and Allen involved on short passes from Rodgers. Rodgers is more dependent on others at this stage of his career, and a healthy running game would also make things with the correlated opportunities off play-action and bootlegs. Downing has no previous history with Rodgers, but he does have a strong history of being involved with a run-heavy Titans offense.
2. Streamline Aaron Rodgers' weapons and maybe add the ultimate trusted one
Rodgers has had difficulty getting the ball to young go-to wide receiver Garrett Wilson, needing a ton of target volume to come through there. Rodgers, beyond dump-offs and designed passes to the backs, has been most comfortable throwing to tight end Tyler Conklin and his former Packers wide receiver Allen Lazard, a frequent "big slot" option.
With Wilson and Mike Williams, the downfield chemistry has been off, hurt by the long layoff between Week 1 of last season and now. Getting some easier completions to Wilson would help, as would not forcing shots to Williams. The shots need to be more calculated playing off the run. Hall and Allen have proved to be dangerous in the open field after the catch and can provide a chunk-play element in another way.
The Jets should also consider trading for a technically sound route-running veteran receiver who can reliably get open for Rodgers by the Nov. 5 midseason deadline. If it's not Davante Adams, the Jets should do what they can to bring in someone, such as Amari Cooper or DeAndre Hopkins.
3. Recognize that Aaron Rodgers has a lot more physical limitations
Hackett knew the rejuvenated MVP Rodgers under Matt LaFleur during his final season as Green Bay's offensive coordinator in 2021. Hackett was still operating the offense like he had that version of Rodgers.
The reality is, Rodgers will turn 41 in December and is coming off the most devastating injury of his career, given the timing of it. He can still run OK and throws well out of the pocket, but Downing needs to work on getting the ball out quickly with higher percentage throws to players such as Hall, Allen, and Conklin. That also keeps the Jets from forcing things and wearing out Rodgers' big arm.
The Jets have a chance to correct many of the issues against the Bills, who have a bad rushing defense and allow the most receiving yards to running backs. If that run-heavy, back-heavy game is enacted, then Rodgers would be well on his way to getting right again with Downing.
