What should the Texans do with QB Davis Mills?

Jayson Braddock

•
What should the Texans do with QB Davis Mills? image

General manager Nick Caserio’s first draft pick with the Texans was used on a quarterback out of Stanford with a ton of potential but who was developmental due to a lack of collegiate experience. 

Caserio selected Davis Mills at pick No. 67 in the 2021 NFL draft while the Texans dealt with disgruntled franchise quarterback Deshaun Watson, who also had major off-field issues. 

Caserio had to find someone who could run his team and the offense of first-year head coach David Culley. When he took over the job, Caserio inherited a 2021 draft that lacked a first and second-round pick. It was the second time in four straight Texans drafts that Houston was without both picks and the third time without at least a first-round pick. 

Caserio needed to look for a find in the draft at the position and sign a stop-gap veteran, which he did with Tyrod Taylor his first year in Houston.

Insert Mills, who started in his third-ever NFL game and 11 total games in 2021 as a rookie. After the Texans drafted C.J. Stroud in 2023, the future of the former third-round pick with Houston remains a mystery heading into his fourth season and second under head coach DeMeco Ryans.

What should the Texans do with QB Davis Mills?

Davis' Mills career with Texans

Despite seeing action in only 14 games in college with 11 starts, the Texans saw enough potential in the 6-foot-4, 220-pound, big-armed quarterback to make Mills, Caserio’s first pick as general manager.

The thought process was that if he had played more or wasn’t restricted due to the 2019 leg injury and the 2020 pandemic, he may have risen as high as a first-round pick. Houston felt the upside was worth taking a shot on, especially with the unknown of everything surrounding Watson.

As a rookie, Mills wasn’t expected to get in the mix immediately. Watson didn’t play the entire season as he was held on the roster but didn’t participate. Houston didn’t want to risk Watson getting injured before Caserio could trade him for a massive trade package.

Veteran quarterback Tyrod Taylor entered the season as a starter but a Week 2 injury forced the inexperienced rookie into the action. Expectations weren't  high as the offensive roster was limited and Mills hadn’t even started a collegiate season worth of games with only 11 starts in four years.

Mills was tasked with continuing to develop in the NFL on the fly with a less-than-stellar offense surrounding him and a first-time head coach overseeing his development with Tim Kelly as his offensive coordinator.  

As a rookie, Mills played behind offensive linemen like Max Scharping, Justin Britt and Justin McCray. His backfield was made up of David Johnson, Mark Ingram, Phillip Lindsay, Rex Burkhead and Royce Freeman. At receiver, he had Brandin Cooks, a rookie Nico Collins, Chris Conley, Anthony Miller, Andre Roberts and Danny Amendola. His tight end group was made up of Pharaoh Brown, Jordan Akins and Brevin Jordan. After reading all of that, you wouldn’t expect a good or even decent outcome for Mills' rookie season.

Yet, Mills started as many games as a rookie in the NFL as he did in four years at Stanford. He played 93% of the snaps in the 13 games he saw action. The 394 pass attempts almost matched the total of 438 collegiate attempts. Mills completed 66.8% of those attempts which was impressively an improvement over his 65.5% collegiate career average and career-high of 66.2%. 

Mills also threw 16 touchdowns and 10 interceptions in his rookie year, which was only two fewer touchdowns and two more interceptions than he totaled in all four years at Stanford. Mills did cough up five fumbles in 2021, but four were recovered by his own team. It was an impressive first year, more so when you consider that almost half of his 10 interceptions on the season (four) came in the first-road start of his career in Buffalo against the Bills' talented defense.

Mills' quarterback class saw five guys selected in the first round with Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Justin Fields and Mac Jones. Only Jones had more passing touchdowns and a better completion percentage than Mills as a rookie.

In 2022, Mills had his second NFL head coach and offensive coordinator in two years as Culley and Kelley departed while Lovie Smith took over as head coach and replaced Kelly with Pep Hamilton as offensive coordinator. Mills played 91% of the snaps in the 15 starts on the season. 

His second season saw Mills attempt 494 passes with him completing 61% of them for 3,118 yards, 17 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. He fumbled the ball eight times on the season with the Texans only recovering two of them.    

It was a disappointing second year for Mills, but the Texans didn’t do him any favors as the offense lacked needed upgrades. The additions brought in on offense in 2022 were rookie guard Kenyon Green as well as offensive linemen A.J. Cann and Scott Quessenberry. Running back Dameon Pierce, tight ends O.J. Howard and Teagan Quitoriano were added along with receivers Tyler Johnson, Phillip Dorsett, Chris Moore and Amari Rodgers. 

It was a disappointing season but not a career-ending type of performance. NFL teams will realize the lack of talent that surrounded Mills in the offense, as well as understanding the situation he inherited as a developmental quarterback with two new coaching staffs in his first two years.

In 2023, that number rose to three new head coaches and offensive coordinators in three seasons for Mills with Caserio’s hiring of DeMeco Ryans and Bobby Slowik. The drop in play and lack of winning in 2022 also put Houston in a position to draft a franchise-changing quarterback with the second pick of the 2023 NFL draft.

The addition and early success of C.J. Stroud put Mills’ development on the back burner. It’s hard for backup quarterbacks to get the reps and one-on-one mentoring that starters receive. There’s just not enough time to go around.

Mills had to compete with a star, young quarterback in his third season while learning a new offense for his third season in a row. Stroud would go on to win the starting job. Mills would get in on the action in six games on the year with no starts and 39 total pass attempts. He completed 46.2% of those passes for two touchdowns. 

Now, he enters the fourth and final year of his rookie contract. Veteran quarterbacks Case Keenum and Tim Boyle are also on the roster with Stroud and Mills. Each, except for Stroud, is set to be a free agent at the end of the season.

Texans could trade Mills now, later or hold on to him

Mills enters an NFL season in his fourth year, in which he’ll have the comfort of already knowing the offense. For the first time, he’ll get to come to camp and focus on executing and not learning or having to think as much with the Texans doing an amazing job of retaining Slowik and QB coach Jerrod Johnson after they each received heavy interest for outside promotions. 

The Texans have several options to consider with Mills:

  • Keep him through the season and hope for a compensatory pick
  • Trade now and free up $3.1 million of cap space
  • Trade at the deadline and free up remaining 2024 contract

Houston could keep Mills through the entire season. The Texans have huge aspirations and it’s a long season. If they believe that Mills is still an ascending talent and could keep the Texans’ title hopes alive, if Stroud were to miss some time, then his presence on the roster is more valuable than the minimal savings.

If Houston thinks that they’re not losing much with Keenum and Boyle as the second and third options, the Texans could ship Mills now, free the cap space and allow him time to get familiar with his new team’s offense.

Lastly and most likely, the Texans keep Mills on the roster through the preseason and first half of the regular season. As it approaches the trade deadline, there could be a team that loses their starting quarterback and doesn't want to mail the season in on their fans and the rest of the team. They could opt to make a move that doesn’t kill their budget or cost a ton in draft collateral to acquire.

Mills would be one of a select few that could make sense for those teams. Most likely, they could acquire him on a minimal salary for mid-round draft compensation. For the Texans, waiting to the deadline allows them to try and take advantage of the quarterback market when Mills has the most value. 

Teams won’t be able to just go pick any quarterback with a cheap, one-year salary who has shown starting potential with limited weapons. There could be a chance that Houston would get an increase from a fifth-round pick to possibly as high as a third-round pick in compensation due to the urgency of need, position of importance and lack of options at the time of the trade deadline.

The Texans are one of two teams (Bears) with an extra preseason game due to each facing the other in the Hall of Fame game. Having four preseason games will help Houston in a couple of ways. First, it allows them extra time for all the new defensive pieces to build chemistry before the start of the 2024 season.

Secondly, starters don’t see much time in the preseason. Teams fear the risk of injuries to their starters in meaningless games. Due to the extra game we may see a minimal increase in starter reps but one person who will definitely see an increase is Mills.

Houston isn't going to take a major risk with their franchise quarterback’s health. They’re more likely to take calculated shots at getting him in the game, keeping him clean and allowing him to find a mild rhythm within the offense. Most of the unit is returning on that side of the ball and extra reps wouldn’t be as needed to the unit as will be defensively.

Mills will get a preseason spotlight to build his value. The Hall of Fame game will be the first NFL action fans from around the league have seen in half a year. Mostly backups will be playing. This is excellent for Mills. He should start against backups with his own offensive backups that are high-level. Even if the top trio of receivers in Collins, Diggs and Dell don’t play, Mills could still be tossing to John Metchie III, Robert Woods, Noah Brown, Steven Sims and Xavier Hutchinson.

If Joe Mixon and Dalton Schultz don't play, then Mills could be handing off to Dameon Pierce or Jawhar Jordan and tossing to Cade Stover, Brevin Jordan and Teagan Quitoriano at tight end. He’ll have talent going against backups. Not only that but it’s talent that he’s played with in the same offense with the same HC, OC and QB coach. It’s set up for Mills to be the talk of the game. Houston can use it and the rest of the preseason to plant fresh seeds in the minds of NFL GMs that may need a quarterback like Mills in the coming weeks to months. 

The best thing for Mills is probably to stay in Houston through the season and end of his contract. Mills knows the offense, personnel, city and he’s on a team stacked with weapons surrounding him. He can build his value up a little during the preseason and with his added comfort this year, could take advantage of the dynamic offense if Stroud were to miss regular season games. If that happened and Mills thrived, he could put himself in line for a nice offseason payday. That could mean a decent compensatory pick for the Texans.

Trading Mills now would help him with learning the new playbook, coaches, team and city before the season. However, it wouldn’t help the Texans and it also would put Mills behind again and uncomfortable, unable to play his best ball. 

The Texans will most likely trade Mills to a needy team before the deadline. While, Mills would still have to learn everything all over again on his new team, waiting until halfway through the season allows adequate time to build up his value in the preseason, provide backup insurance to Stroud the first half of the year and let's Houston keep him in the building a little longer to fully understand where he’s at as a pro and where he’s going before allowing him to walk or trading him.

5 teams who could trade for Mills

San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers are one of the favorites to win it all this year. If quarterback Brock Purdy were to go down, San Francisco's hopes would fall on Joshua Dobbs or Brandon Allen's shoulders. If an injury hit before the trade deadline, 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan and Texans coach Ryans are familiar enough with each other to get a deal worked out that would be mutually beneficial. Mills would benefit from going to a similar system to the Texans.

Miami Dolphins

Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel and Ryans are also familiar with each other from their time together in San Francisco and Houston. Miami's quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is set to play under the fifth-year option of his rookie contract. Behind him on the roster are Mike White and Skylar Thompson. If anything were to happen to Tagovailoa before the deadline, McDaniel could ring Ryans up concerning Mills. Again, the offense would be similar and if Tagovailoa still hadn't received a contract extension, they could have the second half of the season to see if Mills could be the future at a discount over re-signing Tagovailoa.

Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens are one of a few teams that are looking to get over the hump of the conference championship game. If they were to lose quarterback Lamar Jackson then they would have to turn to 38-year-old Josh Johnson or rookie sixth-rounder Devin Leary. Mills would be wise insurance for a team with so much on the line and are one play away from needing a talented backup to their mobile quarterback. 

Los Angeles Chargers

Behind starting quarterback Justin Herbert, new Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh has Easton Stick and Max Duggan. Both quarterbacks were added before Harbaugh's hiring. The former Stanford head coach, Harbaugh, would have plenty of intel on Mills from David Shaw. Shaw was the offensive coordinator under Harbaugh all four years that Harbaugh was the HC at Stanford. After Harbaugh took over as head coach with the 49ers, Shaw became the head coach at Stanford, where he remained through 2022. Shaw was Mills head coach in college from 2017-2020. Mills could be Harbaugh's target if something were to happen to Herbert.

Chicago Bears

Chicago will get a good look at Davis Mills in the Hall of Fame game this year when they face him. Then the Bears will travel to Houston Week 2 to face the Texans. Chicago has a talented team but behind the first-overall draft pick, Caleb Williams, they only have Tyson Bagent, Brett Rypien and Austin Reed at quarterback. If Williams were to get injured or struggle, the Bears could see those seeds planted by Mills' play in the HOF game start to spurt. If that's the case, Chicago could be tempted to ship a mid-round pick for Mills, in hopes off keeping their talented team afloat.

Sunday Spaces with Texans' Insider 6/2/24 @ 7 pm CST

Don't miss the new "Sunday Spaces" where TSN's Jayson Braddock is joined by a new weekly guest from the Texans media each Sunday evening at 7 pm CST, leading up to the Houston Texans 2024 Training Camp.

THIS WEEK: KPRC2's NFL & Texans Insider Aaron Wilson joins me. Stop by and learn more about Wilson's career journey, personal life, his latest inside info and ask your questions of Houston's Insider.

Jayson Braddock

Jayson Braddock Photo

Jayson Braddock has been covering the Houston Texans since 2009. He previously worked in Houston sports radio at SportsTalk 790 and ESPN 97.5, along with co-hosting on SiriusXM Fantasy. Braddock graduated from the Sports Management Worldwide “Football GM & Scouting” course back in 2009, which was led by former NFL personnel man, John Wooten and former NFL scout Russ Lande. Since leaving the course, Jayson has been evaluating college prospects and NFL talent for different media companies, including RotoExperts, Scout and DrRoto to name a few.