The NFL is a league of what-ifs. No one knows this better than your friendly neighborhood Jets fan.
The organization's history is riddled with them: What if they had drafted Dan Marino instead of Ken O'Brien in 1983? What if they had drafted Warren Sapp instead of Kyle Brady in 1995? What if Vinny Testaverde had never torn his ACL in 1998?
(Un)mercifully, Jets fans didn't have to wait long for the latest one: What if the Jets managed to win the "Tank for Trevor Lawrence" sweepstakes in 2021, leading to the Clemson Tiger in Gotham Green instead of Zach Wilson?
MORE: Why did the Jets draft Zach Wilson?
With the two quarterbacks trending in opposite directions entering their second head-to-head meeting Thursday night, here's how history may have been altered had the Jets just lost to the Browns in 2020.
How the Jets lost 'Tank for Trevor'
It all came down to two games the Jets probably shouldn't have won in 2020: Week 15 vs. the Rams and Week 16 vs. the Browns.
Week 15: The Rams entered the matchup as heavy favorites and in search of a playoff berth. They exited with a loss.
The Jets were flirting with a winless season, until this game changed all that. A week after they narrowly avoided a win thanks to Gregg Williams' zero blitz on the final play vs. the Raiders, they took the fight to the Rams, going into LA and taking home a 23-20 victory.
"This is not the result, not the type of game that we expected," Rams coach Sean McVay said after the game.
Little did he know, McVay may have been speaking for Jets fans everywhere, too.
MORE: How Trevor Lawrence has become the QB everyone expected in 2022
Week 16: The Jets looked to keep their "momentum" rolling as they marched toward a showdown with the hapless Browns. Hapless may have been an understatement.
The Browns entered Week 16 with serious roster issues related to COVID-19: Cleveland was missing its top four wide receivers, including Jarvis Landry. With all of that turmoil, the Browns lost to the Jets 23-16, and the Jaguars clinched first place in the "Tank for Trevor" race.
The Jets and the Browns had met the prior two seasons, as well. The Browns took home wins in 2018 and 2019. Unfortunately, the Jets couldn't make it three in a row.
What if the Jets had drafted Trevor Lawrence?
In an alternate universe, the Jets finished winless and ahead of the Jaguars in the 2021 NFL Draft.
Here's how that may have changed the fortunes of all five teams that took a quarterback in the first round:
— The Jets take Trevor Lawrence with the No. 1 overall pick, gifting themselves the best quarterback prospect in franchise history and one of the best in NFL history. Lawrence, though, still struggles in his rookie season. He is without true weapons on the outside thanks to injuries to Corey Davis and Elijah Moore, while his line is below average.
Still, Mike LaFleur's QB-friendly scheme allows Lawrence to show enough promise. He makes the easy stuff look easy, though splash plays and highlight-reel throws are few and far between. The braintrust of LaFleur and Robert Saleh offer Lawrence lots of stability to continue to grow.
MORE: Why did Robert Saleh bench Zach Wilson in Year 2?
— The Jaguars don't buy into the pre-draft hype surrounding Zach Wilson and instead opt to build an Ohio State bridge with Justin Fields. Fields' traits arguably are second to none in the draft: he has explosive mobility, though he still needs to refine his skills as a passer.
But Urban Meyer doesn't do much to help Fields in his rookie season: The Jaguars are still a mess on offense, and they're an even bigger mess off the field thanks to Meyer's antics. Ultimately, it's a nothing season for Fields. It's clear that he needs proper coaching, and the staff, headed by Meyer, does nothing but confirm that. The organizational tumult and instability allow Fields a do-over for Year 2.
— The 49ers still face a tough decision with Trey Lance, Mac Jones and Zach Wilson still on the board. Does Kyle Shanahan take a chance on Lance; bet on Wilson's enormous upside and physical traits; or go the safe route with the high-floor, low-ceiling Jones? Shanahan opts for Wilson in this slot: he has more college experience than Lance and his arm talent is too tantalizing to pass up. The 49ers also don't have to change much about the offense with Wilson at the helm.
Adding to the ease of the 49ers' decision is that Wilson redshirts his rookie season while sitting behind Jimmy Garoppolo — a decision that will benefit Wilson in the long run. Wilson works on his mechanics and learns the NFL game from the sideline, hammering out the fundamentals while Garoppolo leans into the starter-mentor role. Taking snaps for one of the league's best offenses, Wilson looks the part in spot duty — but there's not nearly enough evidence to know for sure entering Year 2.
MORE: Kyle Shanahan explains why 49ers picked Trey Lance and not Mac Jones
— The Bears are in a difficult position. Sitting at No. 20, GM Ryan Pace and head coach Matt Nagy need to do something to keep the heat off them and find the answer at quarterback. So they swing for the fences with Trey Lance, who falls past the top 10. Chicago trades a future first-round pick to the Giants for the 11th overall pick to take Lance.
Lance starts the season behind Andy Dalton on the depth chart, but he's soon elevated to QB1 as Nagy's offense looks lifeless and boring under Dalton. Lance doesn't do much to help the offense as a passer; instead, he leans heavily on his athleticism and just makes plays. Nagy's lack of adjustments to accommodate Lance leads to his dismissal. The jury is still out on Lance entering Year 2.
MORE: Justin Fields joins Lamar Jackson, Michael Vick on exclusive list
— The Patriots still end up with Mac Jones, much to the delight of Bill Belichick. Jones offers the highest floor of any passer outside of Lawrence, though there may not be as much upside. That's fine with Belichick, who is just looking for a high-level game manager. Ultimately, there's not much that would change for New England.
Well, unless Belichick makes Matt Patricia the offensive coordinator.
