We now have a half-season of scouting and stats on every NFL team in 2018. For the most part, we think we know who’s good and who’s bad going into the second half of the season.
Now, hopefully our picks for the rest of the year will make it a November and December to remember and not a Halloween hangover we would like to forget.
Here is your fearless forecast for Week 9 — as usual, for entertainment purposes only. (Game lines courtesy of Bovada.)
MORE NFL PICKS: Week 9 picks straight up
Week 9 NFL picks against the spread
(All times ET)
Game of the Midweek: Oakland Raiders at San Francisco 49ers (-3)
Thursday 8:20 p.m., Fox
Derek Carr is scrapping through his dinking and dunking in a different offense than expected, but he’ll face an overachieving, injury-riddled 49ers defense. The Niners will have noticed how the Colts were able to run all over the Raiders last week and will follow suit to help C.J. Beathard or Nick Mullens end their losing streak.
PICK: 49ers win 24-20 and cover the spread.
Game of the Week: Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots (-6)
Sunday 8:20 p.m., NBC
The Patriots will need to regroup after a short week to gear up for the rare Tom Brady-Aaron Rodgers duel, which probably will never happen again unless they meet in a Super Bowl soon. They’ll hope to be healthier in the running game, but they’ll feel confident in letting Brady air it out to keep up with Rodgers. The home No. 12 has more seasoned, diverse weapons and a better head coach behind him, and that will be the slightest difference in a classic.
PICK: Patriots win 38-34 but fail to cover the spread.
NFC Game of the Week: Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints (-1.5)
Sunday 4:25 p.m., Fox
The Saints will put their No. 1 run defense to the test against Todd Gurley. They will look to simply contain the RB and make Jared Goff throw often in a hostile environment against a good pass rush and improved secondary. Drew Brees will find the better matchups downfield, and the Rams don’t have the linebackers to slow down Alvin Kamara.
PICK: Saints win 30-27 and cover the spread.
Upset of the Week: Houston Texans over Denver Broncos (pick 'em)
Sunday 4:05 p.m., CBS
The Texans have found a running game with Lamar Miller over the past two weeks, which lines up well against the Broncos’ shaky run defense. That also will wear down Denver’s pass-rushers, and Deshaun Watson will use his elusiveness to feel less heat from Von Miller and Bradley Chubb. On the home side, former Texan Case Keenum won’t get much ground support and will be hit often by J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney.
PICK: Texans win 24-17.
Lock of the Week: Carolina Panthers (-6.5) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday 1 p.m., Fox
The Panthers are hard to beat at home, especially when Cam Newton and Christian McCaffrey get in a groove together. Their defense is finding its stride, as well, and will feast on the one-dimensional Bucs, who are too reliant on the downfield passing game with Ryan Fitzpatrick.
PICK: Panthers win 34-24 and cover the spread.
Rest of the Week:
Atlanta Falcons at Washington Redskins (-1.5)
Sunday 1 p.m., Fox
The Falcons’ offensive line issues will keep them from running the ball effectively, and they won't be able to keep pressure off Matt Ryan. Their defensive front also will have trouble with Adrian Peterson and the Redskins’ physical running game. Alex Smith will be comfortable working the middle of the field, and Ryan won’t be able to deliver enough big pass plays in a key game after the bye.
PICK: Redskins win 23-20 and cover the spread.
Chicago Bears at Buffalo Bills (-10)
Sunday 1 p.m., Fox
The Bills offense that couldn't get anything done against the Patriots will not suddenly rebound against a Bears defense that should have Khail Mack playing in his old college stomping grounds. Buffalo's pass defense also will be thrown out of whack by the multitude of weapons around Mitchell Trubisky, not to mention the QB's own ability to run out of trouble.
PICK: Bears win 20-9 and cover the spread.
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-5)
Sunday 1 p.m., Fox
The Vikings need to pick up the pieces after unraveling against the Saints, and Kirk Cousins will be up to the task with more support from the running game and receivers Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs. The Lions will see Kerryon Johnson cool off, and Matthew Stafford will not be able to light it up well enough on road.
PICK: Vikings win 31-23 and cover the spread.
Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) at Cleveland Browns
Sunday 1 p.m., CBS
Patrick Mahomes and Kareem Hunt will have their way against an overmatched defense, which will falter and wear down a little with Gregg Williams now serving as the interim coach. Baker Mayfield will do his best to hang in there, but an improved Chiefs pass rush and secondary will curb the rookie for another week.
PICK: Chiefs win 34-20 and cover the spread.
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-3)
Sunday 1 p.m., Fox
The Jets need to run the ball well in order to beat the Dolphins, which will be hard when they don't have enough healthy receivers to respect in the passing game and relieve some of the burden on Sam Darnold. Brock Osweiler surprisingly is a good QB against the blitz, and Miami will use Kenyan Drake to create mismatches out of the backfield.
PICK: Dolphins win 23-20 and cover the spread.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-3)
Sunday 1 p.m., CBS
The Ravens and Steelers have been going in different directions since Baltimore won the first meeting. The vaunted Ravens defense has not looked as good against balanced offenses, which is what Pittsburgh has with Antonio Brown and James Conner dominating at the same time. Baltimore's offense has become too pass-happy and predictable, a good break for Pittsburgh's upward-trending pressure defense.
PICK: Steelers win 27-20.
Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks (-1.5)
Sunday 4:05 p.m., CBS
The Chargers will take this game on the strength of Philip Rivers and his receivers, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Tyrell Williams. Rivers will be fired up to outduel fellow former N.C. State QB Russell Wilson, and Seattle will not have the success it would like with Chris Carson and the running game. The Chargers' secondary is better overall than the Seahawks’ Legion in transition, and the former will make a couple more plays to save the game.
PICK: Chargers win 27-24.
Tennessee Titans at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5)
Monday 8:15 p.m., ESPN
The Cowboys’ defense will be well rested going into a home Monday night game after a bye. The Titans also were off last week after their loss in London, and they should make some good offensive adjustments. But Amari Cooper will have a trickle-down effect and open things up in the passing game, keeping Tennessee’s typically strong run defense honest vs. Ezekiel Elliott.
PICK: Cowboys win 26-17 and cover the spread.
Last week’s record straight up: 11-3
Last week’s record against the spread: 7-7
Season record straight up: 74-44
Season record against the spread: 50-65
