There was more chaos last week, as some low-scoring games went out of our favor in terms of our picks against the spread. It’s been a challenging NFL season for game predictions, but that only makes us more motivated to do a little better each week.
Here is your fearless forecast for Week 6 — as usual, for entertainment purposes only. (Game lines courtesy of Bovada.)
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Week 6 NFL picks against the spread
(All times ET)
AFC Game of the Week: Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (-3)
Sunday 8:20 p.m., NBC
The Patriots will flip the script on the Chiefs, as they'll be the ones operating a methodical, ball-control approach with strong running from Sony Michel and Tom Brady picking apart a bad secondary with short-to-intermediate throw under little duress. Their goal will be finishing long drives with touchdowns and limiting the chances for Patrick Mahomes to answer. New England will avenge their loss in Week 1 of 2017 and get closer to being the team to beat in the AFC again.
PICK: Patriots win 31-27 and cover the spread.
Rivalry of the Week: Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5)
Sunday 1 p.m., CBS
This is a direct path for Pittsburgh to get back to the status of favorite in the AFC North, but a Steelers loss would put the Bengals in position to run away with the division. Both teams have given up chunk pass plays in the middle of the field this season, and this game will go back and forth until Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown finish the coup of Who Dey Nation.
PICK: Steelers win 27-24.
MORE NFL PICKS:
Week 6 NFL picks straight up
Upset of the Week: Tennessee Titans over Baltimore Ravens (-3)
Sunday 4:25 p.m., CBS
There’s a lot to like and dislike about both teams. Once “retired” former Ravens defensive coordinator Dean Pees works for the Titans now, and he’ll take advantage of Baltimore being pass-happy with a good cadre of edge-rushers. Marcus Mariota is a better grinder than Joe Flacco is, and that will make the slightest difference late in the game.
PICK: Titans win 20-17.
Lock of the Week: Los Angeles Rams (-7) over Denver Broncos
Sunday 4:05 p.m., Fox
The Rams might not be at full strength at wide receiver; Robert Woods is the only starter who is not dealing with a concussion. Denver struggles with power rushing attacks, and LA should come out pounding with Todd Gurley. Jared Goff will not to be intimidated by Von Miller and an overrated pass defense, and former Ram Case Keenum will build his case to be benched for Chad Kelly against former Denver defensive coordinator Wade Phillips.
PICK: Rams win 34-14 and cover the spread.
Rest of the Week:
Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings (-10.5)
Sunday 1 p.m., Fox
After the Bills debacle, the Vikings probably will not take lightly another double-digit underdog quarterbacked by a rookie named Josh. Minnesota's defense got its groove back in Philadelphia, and offensively, Kirk Cousins will stay hot with a little more help from the running game.
PICK: Vikings win 27-13 and cover the spread.
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans (-10)
Sunday 1 p.m., CBS
Josh Allen will do his best to run away from J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney, and Tre’Davious White will contain DeAndre Hopkins as long as he possibly can. But, eventually, the Bills’ rookie QB will succumb in a one-dimensional offense without any legitimate wideouts. Deshaun Watson will make it four consecutive 300-yard passing games and also run Houston to a third consecutive victory, this time in regulation.
PICK: Texans win 24-10 and cover the spread.
Carolina Panthers at Washington Redskins (-1)
Sunday 1 p.m., Fox
The Panthers are finding different ways to win; between the offense, defense and special teams, one unit is always providing the critical pick-up. Josh Norman and the Redskins are picking up the pieces from the Monday night loss in New Orleans against Drew Brees ... just in time to have Cam Newton give them another wrinkle. Alex Smith is struggling, and he won't be able to keep up at home.
PICK: Panthers win 20-17.
Chicago Bears (-3) at Miami Dolphins
Sunday 1 p.m., Fox
This feels like a trap game for the Bears, coming off a bye against the unpredictable Dolphins, who are led by Chicago's former offensive coordinator, Adam Gase. But Matt Nagy will have figured out a few more things to help move forward Mitchell Trubisky and the offense. Ryan Tannehill is going downhill again, and Khalil Mack isn’t about to let the QB out of the slump. Chicago also will be backed by good fan support on the road.
PICK: Bears win 23-10 and cover the spread.
Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets (-2.5)
Sunday 1 p.m., CBS
The Colts are not as bad as their record indicates, and the Jets are a mixed bag from week to week. Andrew Luck should have a healthier team to support him coming off a mini-bye, including a defense that has a lot of underrated playmakers to throw at Luck’s rookie counterpart, Sam Darnold. Frank Reich will get a second road win on the East Coast. The Jets have defensive holes in the wrong spots against Luck.
PICK: Colts win 24-20.
Los Angeles Chargers (-1) at Cleveland Browns
Sunday 1 p.m., CBS
The Chargers are getting back on track defensively, and there has been nothing wrong with the offense all season. This is a tricky, long road trip against a suddenly confident Browns team. Baker Mayfield will bring the energy to match Rivers’ intensity, but he does not have the weapons to win what will be a wild-but-mild shootout.
PICK: Chargers win 31-27 and cover the spread.
Seattle Seahawks (-3) at Oakland Raiders in London
Sunday 1 p.m., Fox
The Seahawks are back to the power running approach they had with Marshawn Lynch, and it's helping open the downfield passing game for Russell Wilson. The Raiders don't pose a defensive threat to either aspect. Beast Mode will run hard against his old team to keep Oakland in the game, but Derek Carr will be more crash than splash across the pond.
PICK: Seahawks win 27-17 and cover the spread.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)
Sunday 1 p.m., Fox
Jameis Winston takes back control as the Bucs’ QB after the bye with more of rookie Ronald Jones in the backfield. But those changes won’t help a reeling defensive back seven against the Falcons' backs, wideouts and tight ends. Matt Ryan will post his typical strong home performance as Atlanta begins its attempt to stay relevant in the NFC.
PICK: Falcons win 41-31 and cover the spread.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) at Dallas Cowboys
Sunday 4:25 p.m., CBS
Blake Bortles made critical mistakes in Kansas City and put a damper on what was a fine Jacksonville offense otherwise. Against a Dallas team with a better pass rush and secondary, look for more efficient short-to-intermediate passing with plenty of T.J. Yeldon. The Jaguars will easily erase the Cowboys' limited passing game and focus on making sure Ezekiel Elliott doesn't bust loose.
PICK: Jaguars win 24-13 and cover the spread.
San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers (-9.5)
Monday 8:15 p.m., ESPN
The Packers know the urgency that comes with this game. The 49ers are decimated by injuries beyond the ACLs of Jimmy Garoppolo and Jerick McKinnon. Their defense is ripe to be picked apart by Aaron Rodgers, while C.J. Beathard will make more critical mistakes on the road. For a change, Green Bay might even choose to run the ball more often and play better complementary football.
PICK: Packers win 31-19 and cover the spread.
Game of Midweek: Philadelphia Eagles (-3) at New York Giants
Thursday 8:20 p.m., Fox
The Eagles' cornerbacks are no match for Giants wide receivers Odell Beckham Jr. and Sterling Shepard outside. But Philadelphia's front will perform better than it did against Minnesota to pressure Eli Manning, and Carson Wentz will be the next mobile passer to have the number of New York’s defense.
PICK: Eagles win 24-20 and cover the spread. RESULT: Eagles won 34-13 and covered the spread.
Last week’s record straight up: 8-7
Last week’s record against the spread: 8-7
Season record straight up: 44-32
Season record against the spread: 31-44
