Last week was filled with major upsets in the NFL, as the Vikings, Jaguars and Patriots lost as big favorites. Week 4 will bring more surprises, as well as the first round of bye weeks.
The Redskins and Panthers get to enjoy an early break, which means there are only 15 games on the Week 4 schedule. The good news: That’s one fewer game to get wrong. The bad news: That’s one fewer game to get right in our weekly pigskin prognostications.
Here is your fearless forecast for Week 4 — for entertainment purposes only, as usual. (Game lines courtesy of Bovada.)
MORE PREDICTIONS:
Week 4 NFL picks straight up
Week 4 NFL picks against the spread
(All times ET)
AFC Game of the Week: Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-7)
Sunday 1 p.m., CBS
The Dolphins are 3-0, but they have barely escaped with wins against three shaky teams. The Patriots will not be right offensively until Julian Edelman returns, but they have plenty to drive Miami batty, especially at tight end with Rob Gronkowski. Two consecutive losses for Bill Belichick is weird, and three doesn't happen. Adam Gase will keep its close with ball control and the running game, but New England will pull away late.
PICK: Patriots win 30-20 and cover the spread.
Upset of the Week: Cleveland Browns at Oakland Raiders (-3)
Sunday 4:05 p.m., Fox
Baker Mayfield will have plenty of support from the Browns fans who invade The Black Hole in his first NFL start, and it also helps that the Raiders’ defense can’t handle Cleveland's receivers in the middle of the field. Mayfield will make a few splash plays while Carlos Hyde helps bring it home in the fourth quarter. Oakland will get too pass-happy again with Derek Carr, playing right into the hands of Myles Garrett and Co.
PICK: Browns win 24-20.
Lock of the Week: Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.5) over New York Jets
Sunday 1 p.m., Fox
The Jaguars’ defense dominated a limited Titans offense, but Blake Bortles couldn’t get going without Leonard Fournette. Jacksonville’s pass defense will be pumped to do some of scoring of its own against rookie quarterback Sam Darnold. Look for the classic 2017 form to show up here in a rout.
PICK: Jaguars win 34-7 and cover the spread.
Rest of the Week:
Buffalo Bills at Green Bay Packers (-10)
Sunday 1 p.m., CBS
The Bills’ defense has come to life with Sean McDermott calling plays, and their offense has found a huge spark with Josh Allen. They should get LeSean McCoy back this week and have a chance to stay in the game by running the ball. Aaron Rodgers will grind through another one to get a much-need home win, but nothing will be easy.
PICK: Packers win 27-20 but fail to cover the spread.
Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-3)
Sunday 1 p.m., Fox
The Lions overachieved defensively against the Patriots, and they will keep up some of that momentum. Matt Patricia, with no fear of Dak Prescott and Dallas' passing game, will have Detroit load the box to stop Ezekiel Elliott. On the other side, Detroit’s running game is looking good with its improved blocking and rookie back Kerryon Johnson. Stopping that and Matthew Stafford is too much for the Cowboys' talented defense.
PICK: Lions win 23-20.
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-1)
Sunday 1 p.m., CBS
The Colts have not been as good as expected offensively, ass Andrew Luck is still getting back to 100 percent in a new scheme, but they have been much better defensively than anyone could have imagined with young players. The Texans have been shaky on both sides, and Bill O’Brien will see his seat get hotter after being out-coached by Frank Reich.
PICK: Colts win 24-20 and cover the spread.
Philadelphia Eagles (-6) at Tennessee Titans
Sunday 1 p.m., Fox
Carson Wentz needs more time to look like his 2017, pre-ACL injury, MVP-candidate self, especially with the offense around him dealing with injuries. The Titans’ defense has been sneaky-good for Mike Vrabel and Dean Pees, the reason they are 2-1. The Eagles’ defense has kept it together, and it will be the difference in an ugly road game.
PICK: Eagles win 19-14 but fail to cover the spread.
Cincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons (-6)
Sunday 1 p.m., CBS
The Bengals stay on the road in the NFC South, and their offense is built to move the ball on a reeling Falcons pass defense, assuming A.J. Green can return to play through his groin injury. Matt Ryan will stay hot at home with more help from Tevin Coleman and the running game. Andy Dalton is game for a duel, but he will make his typical road mistakes.
PICK: Falcons win 27-24 but fail to cover the spread.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears (-3)
Sunday 1 p.m., FOX
The Buccaneers are likely to stick with Ryan Fitzpatrick over Jameis Winston for at least one more week, with the bye looming in Week 5 for extra time to make a final decision. The Bears and Khaiil Mack will limit the time Fitzpatrick has to deliver the big pass plays that are the bread and butter of the Bucs’ offense. Tampa Bay can counter by stuffing the run and forcing Mitchell Trubisky to beat its pass defense. Chicago will escape with another messy win despite Trubisky.
PICK: Bears win 19-17 but fail to cover the spread.
Seattle Seahawks (-3) at Arizona Cardinals
Sunday 4:05 p.m., Fox
The Seahawks have made Russell Wilson a bit of a boring passer playing off a traditional running game, but that formula worked last week. They’ll stick with that plan to control the Cardinals, and their defense should be ready for more big plays to rattle Josh Rosen in his first NFL start. Seattle will get to .500 and keep Arizona winless.
PICK: Seahawks win 23-13 and cover the spread.
New Orleans Saints (-3.5) at New York Giants
Sunday 4:25 p.m., Fox
This is the Saints' first outdoor game of the season, so Drew Brees is bound to cool off against a Giants defense that's playing better than you think, even while shorthanded. Eli Manning has had success against his hometown team in the past, and he’s starting to feel it more in the offense of Pat Shurmur and Mike Shula. New Orleans will need every bit of Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas to steal the show from Saquon Barkley and Odell Beckham Jr.
PICK: Saints win 30-27 but fail to cover the spread.
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Chargers (-10.5)
Sunday 4:25 p.m., Fox
C.J. Beathard takes over as San Francisco’s starting quarterback again with Jimmy Garoppolo down for the season. He’ll do his best to execute Kyle Shanahan’s offense, which figures to get more run-heavy to try to exploit a Chargers weakness and keep Philip Rivers off the field. The problem is the 49ers’ secondary also has injuries, and Rivers is running hot with all of his diverse weapons.
PICK: Chargers win 34-14 and cover the spread.
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)
Sunday 8:20 p.m., NBC
Ravens at Steelers sounds like a bitter defensive struggle, but not this time. Joe Flacco and Ben Roethlisberger are both playing well, and with limited returns from both running games, this will turn into a higher-scoring affair between the AFC North rivals. The punches will be thrown in the form of big pass plays, and Pittsburgh is equipped to make more of those at home in prime time.
PICK: Steelers win 35-27 and cover the spread.
Kansas City Chiefs (-5) at Denver Broncos
Monday 8:15 p.m., ESPN
Patrick Mahomes will make his fourth career road start in five games, this time in Denver, where his legend started in Week 17 last season. The Broncos’ pass rush has disappointed, and the secondary has sprung some leaks to the point where it can't account for the Chiefs’ myriad of field-stretching skill players. Case Keenum will see some things open up against Kansas City’s own porous pass defense, but in the end, he will be outplayed by Mahomes, and Vance Joseph will be well outcoached by Andy Reid.
PICK: Chiefs win 31-24 and cover the spread.
Game of Midweek: Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Rams (-7)
Thursday 8:20 p.m., Fox
The Rams are down Aqib Talib at cornerback and probably Marcus Peters, too. That's a break for Vikings wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen, but Kirk Cousins still needs to deal with Aaron Donald, Michael Brockers and Ndamukong Suh against a struggling offensive line. Minnesota can slow down the LA offensive express a little, but not enough to open the door for Cousins to burn his old offensive coordinator Sean McVay.
PICK: Rams win 27-24 but fail to cover the spread.
Last week’s record straight up: 10-6
Last week’s record against the spread: 5-11
Season record straight up: 27-19
Season record against the spread: 19-28
