In Week 4, the nation should focus less on the early games, the doubleheader games and the primetime games in favor of those off-the-grid, 4:05 p.m. ET kickoffs. As luck would have it (bad luck, in this case), two members of the Quarterback Draft Class of 2018 get their first NFL regular-season starts in that odd, non-national-TV-window time frame.
Baker Mayfield, the first pick, and Josh Rosen, the 10th, aren't coming in off the bench to save the struggling veterans this time. Their teams, the Browns and Cardinals, belong to them now; they’re where they were meant to be when the draft-day investment was made. Their respective coaches, Hue Jackson and Steve Wilks, are getting coast-to-coast side-eyes about their debuts, but the transition was likely never going to be smooth considering the depth of the hole from which both franchises are digging out.
All of which makes a pair of games featuring four teams with a combined two wins (and one tie), shoehorned between the marquee matchups, must-see matchups.
MORE PREDICTIONS:
Week 4 NFL picks against the spread
Week 4 NFL picks, predictions
(All times ET)
Miami Dolphins (3-0) at New England Patriots (1-2)
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
By now, no one wants to be the one to fall for the banana-in-the-Foxborough-tailpipe. Who wants to be the one to have their words, about the Patriots’ dynasty finally tumbling down, thrown back in their faces during Super Bowl week in February? Plus … who wants to be the one fooled by the Dolphins, the NFL’s biggest annual teases, again? Complicating this one is the fact that the Dolphins have beaten the Patriots four times in the last five years, three times with Ryan Tannehill at quarterback.
Prediction: Patriots, 24-23
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1) at Chicago Bears (2-1)
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
Should Jameis Winston regain his starting job this week after his suspension, he wouldn’t exactly get eased back in against the Bears defense and Khalil Mack. It also would not be kind to Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Bucs’ fans to see him knocked out the job instead of pulled out. All that could be moot, however, if Mitchell Trubisky can’t step his game up and capitalize better on what his defense keeps providing him.
Prediction: Bears, 17-13
New York Jets (1-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1)
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
The Jets have had to baste in the shame of losing to the Browns for a few extra days thanks to that loss happening on a Thursday. That’s more time to ask how it let Mayfield pick their defense apart, and how Sam Darnold lost his shine so fast. And while doing that, they’ve had to ponder facing a Jaguars defense that held the Titans to three field goals last week … and still lost, at home, a week after shutting down the Patriots. Calais, Jalen and the guys are not going to take it easy on the Jets after that.
Prediction: Jaguars, 20-6
Philadelphia Eagles (2-1) at Tennessee Titans (2-1)
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
The difference between Carson Wentz and anyone else the Eagles might have at quarterback was evident in his return against the Colts. But it also was evident that the Eagles' offense misses Alshon Jeffery more than anyone else, and they won’t truly be right again until he’s back. Until then, though, they should be fine against a Titans team with an increasingly dangerous defense, but with real quarterback issues, as long as Marcus Mariota’s elbow remains sketchy.
Prediction: Eagles, 20-10
Buffalo Bills (1-2) at Green Bay Packers (1-1-1)
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
If the Packers keep struggling to stop opposing offenses as much as they have so far, and have to keep relying on one-legged Aaron Rodgers to counter that, they might have to seriously look into sitting him for a few weeks. Unless, as some reports have said, his knee won’t actually get better with rest. If so, they’re in deep trouble. Maybe not this week against the Bills, whose dominating performance in Minnesota truly came out of nowhere. But this smells like a long season in Green Bay.
Prediction: Packers, 24-13
Houston Texans (0-3) at Indianapolis Colts (1-2)
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
If the Texans slip up here again and fall to 0-4, the heat on Bill O’Brien will only increase. Conversely, it would be a huge validation for a Colts team that’s showing incremental progress, with Andrew Luck’s return and with the rest of the roster. On paper, the Texans are much better. It’s time for them to play like it.
Prediction: Texans, 26-23
Detroit Lions (1-2) at Dallas Cowboys (1-2)
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
It’s hard to trust any NFL team from week-to-week, and the Lions are living proof. Are they the team that got embarrassed on the biggest of stages by the Jets … or the one that sowed seeds of doubt into the Patriots two weeks later … or the one that woke up nearly in time in San Francisco after sleepwalking through three quarters? The Cowboys, though, are proving to be what we thought they were: an offense with one threat, Ezekiel Elliott, who hasn’t been enough.
Prediction: Lions, 16-14
Cincinnati Bengals (2-1) at Atlanta Falcons (1-2)
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
The fact that Matt Ryan threw five touchdown passes with no interceptions against the Saints last week and still lost in overtime is a function of the Falcons' defense caving to the awful slew of injuries. Their offense has an even heavier burden from now on. The Bengals might still be undefeated if they had A.J. Green for all of Sunday’s game against the Panthers, so having him healthy (again, with the defense he’s facing) will go a long way toward their winning again.
Prediction: Bengals, 30-27
Cleveland Browns (1-1-1) at Oakland Raiders (0-3)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m., Fox
No matter who the quarterback is, the Browns reaching Week 4 with only one loss is a spectacular achievement for which the country is striving to make sure Hue Jackson and Tyrod Taylor get no credit. None of that is relevant for now, though, with the Baker Mayfield era beginning. Also not relevant: how great, ordinary or in over his head Mayfield might be this week, because his long-term development is now paramount. The Raiders have blown a halftime lead in all three losses. Losing to this team could trigger a full-scale revolt in their soon-to-be-former home.
Prediction: Browns, 23-19
Seattle Seahawks (1-2) at Arizona Cardinals (0-3)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m., Fox
Josh Rosen gets a fair shot, as opposed to that desperation ploy in the final five minutes against the Bears last week. (And Sam Bradford cashes in, again.) The Seahawks team that’s remaking itself won’t cause the same headaches for Rosen as the old Seahawks would, but the Earl Thomas factor will surely pose challenges of its own. The Cardinals defense, meanwhile, isn’t quite up to the challenge of halting Russell Wilson yet.
Prediction: Seahawks, 27-20
San Francisco 49ers (1-2) at Los Angeles Chargers (1-2)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., CBS
If quality losses figured into the playoff formula, the Chargers would still be among the NFL’s toughest teams, having fallen to two of the NFL’s three unbeatens, the Chiefs and Rams. They could use a boost from the home crowd, but expect 49ers fans to make the short trip for this one. The 49ers will need all the help they can get with C.J. Beathard at the controls; Kyle Shanahan has supreme faith in him, but he doesn’t exactly have a choice.
Prediction: Chargers, 33-21
New Orleans Saints (2-1) at New York Giants (1-2)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., Fox
The Giants won last week and made the shuffling of their problematic offensive line look smart. It’s probably asking too much to have that work two weeks in a row. It’s also asking too much to have them try to keep up with Drew Brees the way they did three years ago when he and Eli Manning combined for 13 touchdown passes in the Superdome. Even if the defense slows Brees, the Giants can’t pile up points that fast.
Prediction: Saints, 37-20
Baltimore Ravens (2-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1-1)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m., NBC
A “throw the record books out the window” classic. All things considered, the Ravens have handled themselves well, as last week’s win over the Broncos made the flat performance in Cincinnati on a Thursday night look more like an aberration. It’s hard to tell which of the Steelers’ games so far reflects their reality. Joe Flacco is benefiting from his new group of receivers and his sturdy running game. The Steelers’ defense has been the most consistent part of the team so far: consistently vulnerable.
Prediction: Ravens, 30-28
Kansas City Chiefs (3-0) at Denver Broncos (2-1)
Monday, 8:15 p.m., ESPN
Even a defense that can get to Patrick Mahomes isn't necessarily going to stop him, but that’s the Broncos’ hole card in this AFC West showdown. Also helping: The Chiefs' defense is going to make life hard for Mahomes all season, and Case Keenum is due to turn into the quarterback he was last year in Minnesota, if just for one game. The Chiefs are moving the ball with such ease, though, that it’ll be a while before someone figures out how to slow them down. (As always, pray that that “someone” isn’t Andy Reid.)
Prediction: Chiefs, 35-29
Minnesota Vikings (1-1-1) at Los Angeles Rams (3-0)
Thursday, 8:20 p.m., Fox, NFLN, Amazon Prime
The true fruits of Fox buying into Thursday nights are borne this week. A pair of NFC Super Bowl favorites — likely expected to be an NFC title-game preview when they drew this up — get the first over-the-air spotlight, in front of Joe and Troy. Worth it, too, with the Rams one of the last three unbeaten teams and the NFL’s third highest-scoring team … and with the Vikings still sitting on bags of ice after the butt-kicking administered by the Bills. Jared Goff vs. Kirk Cousins qualifies as a top-notch quarterback matchup … except they’re facing loaded defenses. The Vikings’ defense has been the most vulnerable so far; if they’re going to get straightened out, this is the week to do it.
Prediction: Rams, 34-28
