Leveraging NFL DFS ownership projections from UFCollective, I'll again dive into trends and developments that should affect how people play DraftKings on Week 3's Sunday main slate.
This week's ineup construction hinges on how you approach 49ers-Chiefs and Saints-Falcons -- and that includes whether to go the other way and fade them. Some will surely get their contrarian on.
Week 3 Rankings:
Quarterback | Running Back | Wide Receiver | Tight End | D/ST | Kicker
Let's dive into the slate.
NFL Week 3 DFS Ownership: Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes ($7,000) has thrown 10 TDs and all...so, yes, chalk. ... Jimmy Garoppolo ($6,500) could find plenty of DK rosters on the other side of this QB matchup, with favorable projected game flow in a contest boasting the week's highest Vegas point total and a reasonably small spread.
Andy Dalton ($5,700) allows us to hold our finger to the wind: Is the public ready to get back with the Red Rifle after two rough seasons? Dalton shredded a stingy Ravens pass D last Thursday and carved Indy in Week 1, but he'll still be potentially low owned at low cost facing Carolina.
WEEK 3 DFS GPP LINEUPS: Yahoo | FanDuel | DraftKings
NFL Week 3 DFS Ownership: Running Back
Alvin Kamara ($9,500) visits Atlanta, the site of Run CMC's monster receiving day. Deion Jones' absence was felt immediately, and the Falcons had already given up the most RB catches last season. ... Todd Gurley ($9,200) could cement this as a chalk week for the premium backs in good run D matchup versus LAC.
Jordan Howard ($6,500) probably goes contrarian after consecutive weeks of Mitchell Trubisky and Trey Burton stealing his goal-line "carries". Game script shapes up well for Howard, as the Cardinals haven't demonstrated they can get up on anyone.
WEEK 3 DFS CASH LINEUPS: Yahoo | FanDuel | DraftKings
NFL Week 3 DFS Ownership: Wide Receiver
Michael Thomas ($8,900) has been the most consistent receiver since last season, and the masses will stay with him on this price surge to near $9K. It also helps that Thomas' target rate through two weeks suggests he could threaten the league record. ... Tyreek Hill ($8,500) will get stacked with Mahomes in tournaments, and, admittedly the ceiling there is crazy.
Davante Adams ($7,600) could go contrarian again due to Aaron Rodgers' knee injury, even though his level of mobility didn't hinder the pass offense too much against Minny. Some may fear a matchup with Josh Norman but, per Pro Football Focus, he's yet to shadow in 2018 and ranks outside the top 20 in yards allowed per coverage snap, same as last season.
MORE WEEK 3 DFS: Values | Stacks | Lineup Builder
NFL Week 3 DFS Ownership: Tight End
George Kittle ($4,500) and Travis Kelce ($6,700) are hanging out at the top of targeted air yards among tight ends. Their ownership should surge in that juicy Niners-Chiefs matchup, especially with Gronk coming off a down week at premium cost.
Jordan Reed ($5,400) finally seems relatively healthy, and historically that leads to high TE1 production. However, since it's been awhile since Reed hit and he's still topping $5K, so the roster rate likely stays low.