Expert Week 17 NFL Picks: Tips, Advice for Pick 'em pools

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Expert Week 17 NFL Picks: Tips, Advice for Pick 'em pools image

This is it -- your last chance to make up ground or take home a weekly prize in your NFL pick 'em pools. TeamRankings' experts are here with advice for your Week 17 NFL picks. Find out more about TeamRankings' value-based, data-driven system by checking out this article on NFL pick ’em pool strategy.

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Week 17 Fantasy Rankings:
Quarterback | Running Back | Wide Receiver | Tight End | DefenseKicker

Expert Week 17 NFL Picks Advice: Pick 'em pools

It's time to take a closer look at five notable Week 17 games that stand out because of pick popularity and win odds. Deciding on your picks for these games is paramount when making Week 17 picks.

We're not saying you should make all five of these picks. The best choices for your specific pick 'em pool depend on several factors, including the number of entries, whether your pool uses confidence points; and whether it offers season prizes, weekly prizes, or both. Our Football Pick 'em Picks product helps figure out the best strategy for you.

Note: The pick popularity and win odds cited  below is subject to change between publishing time and kickoff. For the latest numbers, our pick 'em product updates multiple times per day.

Value Favorites

New York Giants (vs. Dallas)

The Giants are six-point favorites at home against a Cowboys team that is locked in as the No. 4 seed in the NFC for the playoffs. While most of the usual Dallas starters will start the game, it’s not unusual for playoff-bound teams to pull the starters later in the game. The betting markets have taken this into account, giving the Giants 70-percent win odds. The Giants’ popularity in against-the-spread pools is 45 percent, and their pick popularity in game-winner pick ’em pools is only 35 percent. That number will likely rise later in the week, but with such a big difference between their current popularity and their 70-percent win odds, it’s likely there will still be a decent amount of value in picking the Giants.

Minnesota Vikings (vs. Chicago)

The Vikings are 4.5-point favorites at home against the Bears in Week 17. The Bears have won eight of their past nine games and still have a shot at getting a first-round bye. These factors may be helping boost Chicago’s popularity in pick ’em pools. There are a couple of reasons why Minnesota is undervalued. First, the Bears could ease off the throttle and rest their starters as the game goes on if they see that the Rams have a big lead on the 49ers in their game (and thus little chance of overtaking the Rams in playoff seeding). Second, our power rankings have Minnesota and Chicago rated as virtually equal in strength, with Minnesota being stronger than their 8-6-1 record might suggest. With their Vegas-implied win odds of 66 percent well ahead of their pick popularity of 54 percent, the Vikings are a solid favorite that is underrated by the public.

Indianapolis Colts (at Tennessee)

Indianapolis is a 3.5-point favorite on the road against Tennessee in a game where the playoff math is simple for both teams: Win and they’re in. Both the betting markets and our models have the winning chances right around 62 percent for the Colts. However, some feel divisional games are harder to predict, so they are hesitant to give as much credit to the presumed favorite. Also, both teams have identical 9-6 records, so the public may not be fully accepting that the road team should be a solid favorite. These factors may partially explain why the Colts pick popularity (at only 54 percent nationwide) slightly lags behind their win odds. Picking the Colts allows you to pick the likely winner of the game while also getting some extra value as a bonus.

MORE TEAMRANKINGS: Intro to data-driven NFL picks

Unpopular Toss-up Pick

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Atlanta)

In the game with the smallest point spread of the week, the Buccaneers are one-point favorites at home against the Falcons. Some recency bias may be in play here, as the public is mostly going with an Atlanta team that has won two games in a row instead of a Tampa Bay team that has lost three straight games. However, the Vegas line has Tampa Bay as a slight favorite, with implied win odds of 53 percent, which is substantially higher than their 41-percent popularity in public pools. Tampa Bay is worth strong consideration in weekly pools, as picking them gives you an opportunity to gain ground on the majority of your pool without needing to take a big gamble on a longshot.

Value Gamble

Jacksonville Jaguars (at Houston)

The Jaguars conclude their regular season on the road as a 6.5-point underdog against the Texans. After a 2017 season when they were minutes away from making the Super Bowl, Jacksonville is a disappointing 5-10 and well out of the playoff hunt. With the Texans still in contention for a first-round bye in the playoffs, the public is solidly behind Houston in pick ’em pools, with only five percent picking Jacksonville nationwide. The flip side of Houston having something to play for is that division rival Jacksonville can play the role of spoiler to at least hurt Houston’s playoff seeding. Despite their unpopularity in pick ’em pools, Jacksonville still has a decent chance of pulling off the upset, with both our models and the betting markets giving the Jaguars a 28-percent chance of winning. For people trailing in their season pools and needing to make one or more upset picks, or for people playing in a big weekly pool, Jacksonville is one of the best available choices, given their reasonable winning chances coupled with extreme unpopularity in pick ’em pools.

Which Of These Five Picks Should You Make in Week 17?

Maybe all, maybe some. We're not trying to avoid this difficult question, but it ultimately takes a lot of number-crunching to arrive at the right answer.

We designed our Football Pool Picks to do the number-crunching for you, and you figure out when it makes the most sense for you to go with the favorite vs. the underdog. Just answer a few questions about your specific pool and our picks product will customize Week 17 recommendations to give you the biggest advantage.

If you're in a college bowl pool or going to bet NFL Week 17 games, check out our College Bowl Pick 'em Picks and NFL betting picks.

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