Last week in the NFL was filled with some key upsets. That's typical when desperation and frustration kick in late in the season, when teams and players realize — or don't realize — there are only a few more chances to win in the 2018 regular season.
Week 15 is not so big on the marquee, but there are not many big point spreads. Here's how we think another full stale of 16 games will play out. (Game lines courtesy of Bovada.)
MORE NFL PREDICTIONS:
Week 15 NFL picks straight up
Week 15 NFL picks against the spread
(All times ET)
Game of the Midweek: Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5)
Thursday 8:20 p.m., Fox
Both teams are dealing with backfield injuries, so at some point by the early second half, this will turn into a pure passing duel between Patrick Mahomes and Philip Rivers. Tyreek Hill, who bolted past the Bolts in Week 1, is expected to play, which makes it hard to go against Mahomes’ magic at home. Kansas City's defense also will overachieve in primetime to make a key stop late in the game.
PICK: Chiefs win 34-27 and cover the spread.
Game of the Week: New England Patriots (-2.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday 4:25 p.m., CBS
The Patriots and Steelers both suffered brutal losses in the final seconds against opponents they should have blown out last week. New England, though, is in better position to rebound; it owns this matchup, and that includes Rob Gronkowski, who despite the Miami Miracle looked his best all season last week. Pittsburgh will be stuck in one-dimensional mode, and Tom Brady will outplay a banged up Ben Roethlisberger. Either the Patriots’ road woes or the Steelers’ home struggles will give, and history says go with Bill Belichick over Mike Tomlin.
PICK: Patriots win 38-34.
Ride of the Week: Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts (-3)
Sunday 1 p.m., Fox
In this blue-hued matchup of horses and riders, the Cowboys won't mess around offensively. They will stick with Ezekiel Elliott and the running game opening up deep shots for Dak Prescott. Meanwhile, their defense will do more bending than breaking against Andrew Luck, and they have cornerback Byron Jones to keep T.Y. Hilton in check. Dallas will turn this into more of a ground-and-pound game late, and that doesn’t play well for Indy.
PICK: Cowboys win 27-24.
Upset of the Week: Tennessee Titans over New York Giants (-2.5)
Sunday 1 p.m., Fox
The Titans should be able to run the ball with Derrick Henry and Dion Lewis, and Marcus Mariota will use his legs to buy time for Corey Davis in the passing game, as the Giants aren't built to cover him well. New York will feed Saquon Barkley per usual, and the expected return of Odell Beckham Jr. will help against either Malcolm Butler or Adoree' Jackson. But Eli Manning will make a few more mistakes than Mariota.
PICK: Titans win 24-20.
Lock of the Week: Los Angeles Rams (-11) over Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday 8:20 p.m., NBC
The Rams will follow their worst offensive performance of the season with one of their best. They will establish Todd Gurley early in this game, which will allow Jared Goff to get comfortable and pick apart the Eagles’ makeshift secondary with Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks. Carson Wentz and his weapons will hang around for a while until Gurley plays the closer role.
PICK: Rams win 45-27 and cover the spread.
MORE: Updated NFL playoff picture
Rest of the Week
Houston Texans (-6.5) at New York Jets
Saturday 4:30 p.m., NFL Network
The Texans cooled off against the Colts last week, but they’ll go back to a simple game plan of heavy traditional running, setting up Desahaun Watson to make big plays as both a passer and scrambler. The Jets will be grounded, and Sam Darnold will make some big mistakes while confused by Romeo Crennel, J.J. Watt and the rest of Houston's defense.
PICK: Texans win 26-10 and cover the spread.
Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos (-3)
Saturday 8:20 p.m., NFL Network
The Browns and Broncos will be aggressive in the passing game, but this comes down to which team can be more effective in the running game, each with a talented rookie feature back. Phillip Lindsay will run better at home while Nick Chubb will be contained. Meanwhile, Bradley Chubb and Von Miller are a tough pass-rush combination for Baker Mayfield. Denver will grind the game out and keep it from becoming a shootout, which would be a bad situation for Case Keenum.
PICK: Broncos win 23-17 and cover the spread.
Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons (-9)
Sunday 1 p.m., Fox
The Falcons showed signs of running the ball better in Green Bay before the game got out of hand. They’ll get back on track against a weak Cardinals run defense to end their five-game losing streak. Arizona will have trouble piecing together enough offense around Josh Rosen in comeback mode.
PICK: Falcons win 34-20 and cover the spread.
Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills (-2.5)
Sunday 1 p.m., Fox
The Bills were disappointing against the Jets last week, as Josh Allen, even with all his big plays rushing, got sloppy passing. This is more of Buffalo's type of game — low-scoring and ugly in the elements against a Detroit team that has lost all firepower with Matthew Stafford. The Bills will use more wrinkles to rebound at home.
PICK: Bills win 17-10 and cover the spread.
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (-6)
Sunday 1 p.m., Fox
The Packers got off the mat without Mike McCarthy last week in an impressive all-around performance fueled by Aaron Rodgers. But they also were facing a much weaker Falcons defense at home than the red-hot Bears unit they'll see in Chicago. Mitchell Trubisky’s shoulder-related funk will continue and keep Green Bay in the game, but the Bears' defense is up to the task of a late stop. Chicago will be the NFC North champion.
PICK: Bears win 23-20 but fail to cover the spread.
PLAYOFF PICTURE: Week 15 clinching scenarios
Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings (-7)
Sunday 1 p.m., CBS
The Dolphins and Vikings both know a lot about alliterative miracles. But there will be no last-second improbability in this one as Minnesota uses Miami for a get-well game to improve its playoff push. The Vikings will get results running and passing on the Dolphins’ defense, while Ryan Tannehill will see everything cool down around him. No prime-time game and a weaker opponent are good things for Kirk Cousins.
PICK: Vikings win 28-20 and cover the spread.
Oakland Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals (-3)
Sunday 1 p.m., CBS
The Raiders are playing hard for Jon Gruden now that they've figured out some personnel things. The Bengals also showed up to fight well for Marvin Lewis last week. Lewis and Hue Jackson will help Jeff Driskel know what’s coming from former defensive coordinator Paul Guenther, and Oakland will have no answers for Joe Mixon. Derek Carr will have his moments on the road, but the Bengals will escape on a late field goal to end their five-game losing streak.
PICK: Bengals win 23-21 but fail to cover the spread.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Baltimore Ravens (-8)
Sunday 1 p.m., Fox
The Ravens should be sticking with Lamar Jackson at quarterback since he has reinstalled their running game and defense mentality. The Bucs will be run over by Jackson, Gus Edwards and Kenneth Dixon, while Jameis Winston is bound to make key mistakes in a one-dimensional passing game while facing Baltimore’s pass-rushers.
PICK: Ravens win 27-17 and cover the spread.
Washington Redskins at Jacksonville Jaguars (-7)
Sunday 1 p.m., Fox
The Redskins feel good about turning to Josh Johnson at quarterback after he played well against the Giants in mop-up duty, but playing a full game on the road against the Jaguars' defense is different. Jacksonville will go back to showing pride after that awful performance in Tennessee, as its defense and Leonard Fournette will finally show up in the same game. Johnson's mobility and usage of tight ends and slot receivers will be the only things that keep Washington close.
PICK: Jaguars win 17-14 but fail to cover the spread.
Seattle Seahawks (-3.5) at San Francisco 49ers
Sunday 4:05 p.m., Fox
The Seahawks need this win to clinch an NFC wild-card spot. Coming off their emotional Monday night win, they will start a little slow, as Nick Mullens will have some success against their secondary. In the end, Seattle will go back to controlling the action with its running game and defensive front once Russell Wilson has passed them to a comfortable lead.
PICK: Seahawks win 33-24 and cover the spread.
New Orleans Saints (-7) at Carolina Panthers
Monday 8:15 p.m., ESPN
The Saints have had slow starts in recent games, and Drew Brees has not played to his level in December. With that said, a reeling Panthers defense is exactly what he needs to get going, as Carolina can’t stop his primary weapons in Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara. Cam Newton and Christian McCaffrey will work to make things interesting at home while trying to end the Panthers' five-game losing streak, but they can’t help on the other side of the ball.
PICK: Saints win 24-20 but fail to cover the spread.
MORE: Updated NFL power rankings
Last week’s record straight up: 9-7
Last week’s record against the spread: 6-10
Season record straight up: 122-70
Season record against the spread: 89-99
