Last week was as rough and as unlucky as the number 13 might indicate. There were plenty of upsets with underdogs shaking things up one way or another.
The only thing to do now is get back on the horse for another full slate of games in Week 14 and bring some more energy and success for the stretch run. There’s only one more month in the 2018 NFL regular season, so let's show if we can’t win or place. Giddyap. (Game lines courtesy of Bovada.)
MORE NFL PREDICTIONS:
Week 14 NFL picks straight up
Week 14 NFL picks against the spread
(All times ET)
NFC Game of the Week: Los Angeles Rams (-3) at Chicago Bears
Sunday 8:20 p.m., NBC
This marquee game with NFC playoff seeding on the line will go to the team that’s better equipped to win in cold weather. That takes a mighty offensive line, an even mightier defensive line and a power back ready to get the tough yardage. The Rams can offer more black and blue with Aaron Donald and Todd Gurley, while the Bears' pass-happy ways with either QB and ineffective Jordan Howard will burn them at home.
PICK: Rams win 23-14 and cover the spread.
NFC Game of the Week II: Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks (-3)
Monday 8:15 p.m., ESPN
Kirk Cousins struggled against the Patriots’ defense, but he will play a little better in Seattle because of more favorable matchups for Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs and Dalvin Cook in the passing game. Russell Wilson might need a little more volume passing in this game because the Vikings can play the run well, but he's red-hot at home, and there is enough to exploit against zone coverage. Minnesota will keep it close, but Seattle will take more control of an NFC wild-card in the end.
PICK: Seahawks win 27-24 in a push.
NFC Game of the Week III: Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5)
Sunday 4:25 p.m., Fox
The Eagles are coming off an impressive, much-needed win over the Redskins, but now it’s a short week for a tough rematch against the Cowboys, who stay at home for a third straight week after a long week. Philadelphia hasn't been in total rhythm, and that plays into Dallas’ hands with its good run defense. The Cowboys’ more streamlined approach with Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper and Ezekiel Elliott will help them hold serve to finish a sweep of the Eagles and add to their control of the NFC East.
PICK: Cowboys win 27-23 and cover the spread.
AFC Game of the Week: Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs (-7)
Sunday 1 p.m., CBS
Lamar Jackson will likely get his chance to go 4-0 as a rookie starter with Joe Flacco hurting, and you can bet Baltimore will use his running, along with that of power back Gus Edwards, to try to play ball control and finish drives in the red zone to help limit the opportunities for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense. But the Ravens’ defense still has some key holes against slot receivers and tight ends, which will line up with Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce using their speed and athleticism to break through. Kansas City will get a good lead at some point and tee off on Jackson.
PICK: Chiefs win 34-20 and cover the spread.
Lock of the Week: New Orleans Saints (-10) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday 1 p.m., Fox
The Saints, before their offensive stumble in the loss to the Cowboys in Week 13, had previously only lost a Week 1 shootout at home to the Bucs. With the NFC South title still not clinched, they go into Tampa Bay with big revenge on their minds. Look for Drew Brees to do whatever he wants, and eventually, Jameis Winston will commit some key turnovers while trying to keep up.
PICK: Saints win 45-21 and cover the spread.
MORE: Updated NFL playoff picture
Rest of the Week
Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers (-4)
Sunday 1 p.m., Fox
The Packers will come out motivated for interim coach Joe Philbin, and the matchup is a great against a depleted defense for both Aaron Rodgers and Aaron Jones at home. But the Falcons, wanting to finish strong for Dan Quinn, will also feel good about what Matt Ryan and Julio Jones can do against an opponent and in a place where they have dominated. Both teams will be able to score big points, but Green Bay will win on a late field goal, unlike last week.
PICK: Packers win 30-27 but fail to cover the spread.
Carolina Panthers (-1) at Cleveland Browns
Sunday 1 p.m., Fox
The Panthers’ defense got some help from Ron Rivera calling plays against the Buccaneers, but their turnovers were too much to overcome. The Browns’ defense is pretty tough at home, and the matchups are better for Baker Mayfield’s primary weapons than those of Cam Newton. It comes down to which dynamic back, Nick Chubb or Christian McCaffrey, can carry the day. Strangely, Carolina’s good run defense tends to turn awful on the road, while Cleveland’s bad run defense somehow is more respectable at home.
PICK: Browns win 27-24.
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-4.5)
Sunday 1 p.m., CBS
Their first matchup, when the Colts lost in overtime, ended up creating a spark for Indy. But its road losses to the Jets and Jaguars have curbed any enthusiasm about a surprise late run to an AFC wild card. The Texans can put the AFC South on lock here and will stick with running the ball effectively to set up comfortable shots for Deshaun Watson. Andrew Luck and the passing game were weirdly out of sync against the Jaguars and will fare better here, but it’s not enough against a surging defense that will get key pressures and takeaways.
PICK: Texans win 30-23 and cover the spread.
New England Patriots (-9) at Miami Dolphins
Sunday 1 p.m., CBS
The Patriots haven’t been great on the road this season, and the Dolphins have posed problems for Tom Brady in the past. But New England also knows it can run effectively against Miami's defense with its full cadre of backs. The Dolphins are also giving up more big plays in the passing game, so they will be vulnerable to a few Brady deep shots off play-action.
PICK: Patriots win 34-14 and cover the spread.
New York Giants (-3.5) at Washington Redskins
Sunday 1 p.m., Fox
The Giants are finally finding their identity with Pat Shurmur, making it clear they might really be only a quarterback away from being a playoff-race factor in 2019. The Redskins have no answers for Saquon Barkley or Odell Beckham Jr. The Giants’ defense has gained confidence of late under James Bettcher and will be ready to take down Mark Sanchez.
PICK: Giants win 27-20 and cover the spread.
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-4.5)
Sunday 1 p.m., CBS
The Jets are going veteran mode vs. seeing more of young players, a sign Todd Bowles knows he needs to get a couple wins. So that makes Sam Darnold iffy to return regardless of his foot injury, also given this is a brutal pass defense for a rookie to face on the road. The Bills are going the other way, showcasing Josh Allen as much as possible. The Jets will run the ball well to keep it close, but the Bills will smash whoever is playing QB late late in the game.
PICK: Bills win 27-20 and cover the spread.
Cincinnati Bengals at Los Angeles Chargers (-15.5)
Sunday 4:05 p.m., CBS
The Chargers are road warriors, and for a change, they won’t need to worry about their home stadium being taken over by loud visitors. They also can be effective power-running without Melvin Gordon, and Philip Rivers can pick apart a pass defense that has holes in coverage. Cincinnati will not provide any of the same resistance as Pittsburgh did, and once LA gets a big lead, its pass rush will tee off on Jeff Driskel.
PICK: Chargers win 38-14 and cover the spread.
Denver Broncos (-3.5) at San Francisco 49ers
Sunday 4:05 p.m., CBS
The Broncos have rallied with three consecutive victories to get back in the AFC wild-card hunt. They’ll keep it going with plenty more of Phillip Lindsay running and high-percentage Case Keenum passing. The 49ers are scrappy with their offensive personnel under Kyle Shanahan even though it hardly resembles the projected Week 1 starters. San Francisco will grind at home, but Denver’s defense is too much in the end.
PICK: Broncos win 20-16 and cover the spread.
Detroit Lions (-3) at Arizona Cardinals
Sunday 4:25 p.m., Fox
Matt Patricia and Steve Wilks have had their share of rookie coaching struggles, as both of their teams have been in transition schematically while also adjusting to a lot of younger personnel. The Cardinals simply have fewer weapons around the lesser quarterback in Josh Rosen vs. Matthew Stafford, and they also have the much worse run defense. The game lines up better with the Lions’ game plan.
PICK: Lions win 23-20 in a push.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-10) at Oakland Raiders
Sunday 4:25 p.m., Fox
The Steelers will not have James Conner for this game against a bad Raiders run defense, but they’ll have plenty of Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster against a bad Raiders pass defense. Derek Carr will do some more things in garbage comeback mode to try to keep his gig for 2019, but Pittsburgh will pour it on as a get-well game before New England next week.
PICK: Steelers win 41-24 and cover the spread.
Game of the Midweek: Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-4.5)
Thursday 8:20 p.m., Fox
The Jaguars’ pass defense came alive in a shutout of the high-powered Colts last week, and it can cool down Marcus Mariota enough. The Titans’ run defense has started to show major leaks in giving up chunk yardage plays, and Leonard Fournette comes in well rested for a big workload after his suspension. Jacksonville will settle for more spoiler work as Cody Kessler protects the ball better than Mariota.
PICK: Jaguars win 20-17. RESULT: Titans won 30-9.
MORE: Updated NFL power rankings
Last week’s record straight up: 8-8
Last week’s record against the spread: 7-9
Season record straight up: 113-63
Season record against the spread: 83-89
