Congratulations to the NFL for one it got right. The Sunday night flex policy was immensely necessary and pure genius. More proof comes this Sunday, in Week 13, with the Chargers' trip to Pittsburgh replacing the 49ers-Seahawks game originally scheduled.
It's the Jimmy Garoppolo Effect again, and it's a shame because when the schedule was made last spring, this looked like an attractive, meaningful game with serious playoff implications and a long-awaited revival of a briefly intense rivalry. Yes, this still means a lot for the Seahawks' wild-card hopes, but Chargers-Steelers could decide who gets a bye in the AFC playoffs and where a potential postseason rematch will be played.
It's also Ben Roethlisberger vs. Philip Rivers, in the spotlight a matchup like that deserves. It's only the sixth time the two 2004 first-round quarterbacks have faced each other. That’s what the NFL's flex policy saved, instead of, well, Nick Mullens (who already has been on prime-time TV twice). Thanksgiving is over, but be thankful for that.
MORE NFL PREDICTIONS:
Week 13 picks against the spread
Week 13 NFL picks, predictions
(All times Eastern)
New Orleans Saints (10-1) at Dallas Cowboys (6-5)
Thursday, 8:20 p.m., Fox/NFLN/Amazon Prime
Dak Prescott, feeling flush from beating a team quarterbacked by Colt McCoy on Thanksgiving, is giving the Saints bulletin-board material, talking about how the unquestioned best team in the NFL still “put on their pants the same way we do." Chances are Drew Brees can pick up Michael Thomas and throw him into his pants from 50 yards away, but that's beside the point. The point is … uh … hmmm … the Saints haven’t lost since opening day, and they ain't losing now.
Prediction: Saints, 38-17
Baltimore Ravens (6-5) at Atlanta Falcons (4-7)
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
Ravens fans are now arguing with each other over Joe Flacco vs. Lamar Jackson, mainly by trashing the quarterback they don’t support. It's really not necessary, since putting either of them back in the driver's seat down the stretch of their playoff run has extreme pluses and minuses. Starting Jackson for the third straight time (he's 2-0) is the safe play, because the Falcons' defense is still vulnerable, and if there’s a defense that can keep Matt Ryan in reasonable check, it's this one.
Prediction: Ravens, 27-24
Carolina Panthers (6-5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-7)
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
The Panthers, with three straight losses, are entering mirage territory, especially when one recalls what all had to go right for them to have survived at home against the Giants. Their last win, coincidentally, was against the Bucs in Charlotte, and following that blueprint would help this time: Roll out to a huge lead behind Cam Newton and hang on against a furious comeback. Playing defense from start to finish and forcing a turnover (none in that three-game stretch) wouldn't hurt, either.
Prediction: Panthers, 30-28
Chicago Bears (8-3) at New York Giants (3-8)
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
The Bears got through the Sunday night-Thursday afternoon short turnaround on pure adrenaline, winning both divisional games, one without their starting quarterback. They might not have Mitchell Trubisky this week, either. They do have a defense that loves taking the ball away, and they're playing Eli Manning. The Bears are solidifying their chances to win the division.
Prediction: Bears, 29-16
Buffalo Bills (4-7) at Miami Dolphins (5-6)
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
The rest of the Bills' season should be devoted to protecting and developing Josh Allen, and figuring out what they need to give him to succeed. The Dolphins, meanwhile, have decisions to make about their quarterback, Ryan Tannehill, who has five games left to get fully healthy and prove he is their man. They also have to ask themselves how they ended up in position to fall into a late-season tie in the standings with the Bills after starting 3-0.
Prediction: Dolphins, 23-17
MORE: Updated NFL playoff picture
Indianapolis Colts (6-5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-8)
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
The Cody Kessler era begins in Duval. So does the play-calling career of Scott Milanovich. At some point, the era of figuring out what on earth happened to that world-beating defense since last season will start, too. There should be no confidence that the Jags will find their groove against Andrew Luck, who is playing like a medical miracle. Also: It’s time to apologize to Leonard Fournette (suspended this week) for downplaying his value and fawning over Blake Bortles so much since last season.
Prediction: Colts, 40-14
Cleveland Browns (4-6-1) at Houston Texans (8-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
Baker Mayfield, quarterback and apparently de facto assistant GM, gets one of his stiffest tests, the Texans’ defense. The duel between him and fellow young prodigy Deshaun Watson will be intriguing, too. Actually, the matches to watch are both teams' offensive lines, because ideally, as good as both are on the move, these two pass rushes routinely get quarterbacks running for their lives. A real stealth fascinating game.
Prediction: Texans, 27-20
Denver Broncos (5-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (5-6)
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
Tom Savage and Jeff Driskel, the Bengals’ quarterbacks the rest of the way (presumably), should look to the Broncos’ starter as a role model: Two years ago, zero people envisioned Case Keenum as a franchise quarterback. Keenum has done everything right in helping the Broncos back into the playoff race with stunning wins over the Chargers and Steelers the last two weeks. His defense, of course, has done much more.
Prediction: Broncos, 26-13
Los Angeles Rams (10-1) at Detroit Lions (4-7)
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
Your weekly reminder that the Lions were 9-7 last year, fired Jim Caldwell, and 11 games into the next season are pleading for patience in their big rebuild/culture change. The Rams would have to come out of their bye in a fog and look past this game in order to lose it. Aqib Talib returns from his injured ankle this week, though, so not being emotionally ready for this is highly unlikely.
Prediction: Rams, 34-20
Arizona Cardinals (2-9) at Green Bay Packers (4-6-1)
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
The Packers are crumbling, but not enough to let the Cardinals slip past them. Arizona cut two starters after their latest loss, one on each side of the ball. The Packers’ offense, though, looks way too inept for a team that has Aaron Rodgers running it. Whether Mike McCarthy is on the hot seat or not, he’s running out of time to fix it. If he can’t find a way this week, they may never do it.
Prediction: Packers, 24-14
Kansas City Chiefs (9-2) at Oakland Raiders (2-9)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m., CBS
The Chiefs should have caught their breath from the Rams shootout during their bye week, but if they haven’t, here’s another chance. They need to put the Raiders out of their misery early; not doing so, especially against an offense that can’t protect Derek Carr, would be a bad sign for later, when it really starts to count. This is a good chance for Patrick Mahomes to get back into an MVP race from which shouldn’t have been dropped in the first place.
Prediction: Chiefs, 44-20
New York Jets (3-8) at Tennessee Titans (5-6)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m., CBS
After Monday night, it’s time to give up trying to predict or figure out the Titans. This begins a run of three games that, on first glance, could propel the Titans back into the playoff race (Jets, Jaguars, at Giants), but who knows? A game that ended 34-17 doesn't seem to fit the category, but the loss to the Texans was very winnable, and it's one of many the Titans will regret letting get away. The Jets, meanwhile, are terrible no matter who quarterbacks them, and the countdown to the end for Todd Bowles has pretty much begun.
Prediction: Titans, 20-13
San Francisco 49ers (2-9) at Seattle Seahawks (6-5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., Fox
This is the aforementioned game that was flexed out of Sunday night. Finding a way for the 49ers to beat the Seahawks relies on stopping Russell Wilson, and there really seems to be no way for them to do that. After a string of surprisingly effective rushing totals, the Seahawks beat the Panthers last week with just 75 yards on the ground, and with Wilson simply being unstoppable. Speaking of “winnable” games, down the stretch the Seahawks face the Vikings and Chiefs, but also the 49ers twice and the Cardinals once. The door is open.
Prediction: Seahawks, 33-17
MORE: Updated NFL power rankings
Minnesota Vikings (6-4-1) at New England Patriots (8-3)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., Fox
Last week against the Jets, the Patriots did not look exactly like the team that usually has already had everything click into place for a postseason run. The Vikings could make things uncomfortable for them on offense and defense. On the other hand, Bill Belichick likely has plans for neutralizing that offense, because that’s what the Patriots do best this time of year.
Prediction: Patriots, 30-19
Los Angeles Chargers (8-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (7-3-1)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m., NBC
In the lifetime head-to-head matchups mentioned above between Ben Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers, the Steelers are 3-2, including a divisional playoff game after the 2008 season, the year the Steelers won Super Bowl 42. They haven't met since 2012. (In two other games between the teams since the 2004 draft, Rivers and Roethlisberger each missed one). The Chargers still can catch the Chiefs in the AFC West; the Steelers can still be caught in the AFC North. The Chargers have to figure out how to compensate for the injured Melvin Gordon. Against the Steelers’ defense, don’t count them out on doing it.
Prediction: Chargers, 27-25
Washington Redskins (6-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-6)
Monday, 8:15 p.m., ESPN
Is it too early to say, “Here come the Eagles"? Clearly not, since they could tie for the NFC East lead with a win and a Cowboys loss Thursday night. Again, though, trusting the Eagles still might be premature considering how close a call it was against the Giants last week. Theoretically, Colt McCoy will be better than he was against Dallas because he’ll have more time to prepare with the starters. Theoretically, if the Eagles’ pass rush plays to its capacity, it won’t matter.
Prediction: Eagles, 24-19
