Last week was brutal for picks against the spread with several upsets, including three games won by underdogs on a last-second field goal. Most games were determined by one big defensive play, turning some probable victories into tough defeats.
The only thing to do when we get knocked down, like some song says, is to get up again. There are only two teams on bye in Week 12 and lot of big point spreads to navigate.
If you’re looking for picks for the Thanksgiving NFL games, you can get them here. Here is the rest of your fearless forecast for Week 12 — as usual, for entertainment purposes only. (Game lines courtesy of Bovada.)
MORE NFL PREDICTIONS:
Week 12 NFL picks straight up
Week 12 NFL picks against the spread
(All times ET)
NFC Game of the Week: Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers (-3)
Sunday 1 p.m., FOX
The Panthers are undefeated at home, and they tend to play better defense and run the ball more effectively in Charlotte. Christian McCaffrey will make some explosive plays, and Cam Newton will again be able to stretch the field with D.J. Moore. The Seahawks will stick to their run-heavy approach, but eventually Russell Wilson will be under pressure and see his comeback fall short.
PICK: Panthers win 27-23 and cover the spread.
AFC Game of the Week: Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts (-10)
Sunday 4:25 p.m., CBS
That’s a big number in the Colts' favor given they have the same 5-5 record as their opponents. The Dolphins are a much better home team offensively whether they have Ryan Tannehill or Brock Osweiler in at quarterback and are facing an overachieving unit in Indy. Miami’s issues with run defense and coverage away from Xavien Howard will be exploited by Frank Reich and Andrew Luck. The Colts will stay hot and get a key win on their way toward legitimately pushing for an AFC wild card after a 1-5 start.
PICK: Colts win 34-20 and cover the spread.
Lock of the Week: Baltimore Ravens (-11) over Oakland Raiders
Sunday 1 p.m., CBS
The Ravens are likely to have Lamar Jackson starting at quarterback again, and there’s no reason for them to deviate from his running against a Raiders defense that gets gashed on the ground. This is also a chance to let Jackson loose as a downfield passer against no pressure and bad coverage. Baltimore’s defense will put this out of reach against Derek Carr.
PICK: Ravens win 26-7 and cover the spread.
Upset of the Week: Cleveland Browns over Cincinnati Bengals (-3)
Sunday 1 p.m., CBS
The Bengals' offense is hoping to get A.J. Green back; the trickle-down effect of not having its No. 1 wide receiver has limited what both Andy Dalton and Joe Mixon can do. Unfortunately, Green can’t help Marvin Lewis' reeling defense. Former Browns coach Hue Jackson will try to give Lewis useful intel on Baker Mayfield, but the offense and Mayfield’s play have ramped up since the coach was fired. Coming off a bye, Cleveland will be aggressive in exploiting Cincinnati’s weaknesses against the run and downfield pass.
PICK: Browns win 27-20.
Rest of the Week
Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) at Buffalo Bills
Sunday 1 p.m., CBS
The Jaguars are simply hoping to play out the string with some pride after free-falling to 3-7 and last place in the AFC South, far from their Super Bowl contention feelings from a season ago. They are sticking with Blake Bortles at QB, so there will be more relying heavily on Leonard Fournette and the defense to power them to victory. That can actually work in this game, as Fournette should find good running room between the tackles. Jacksonville’s defense will be tough on returning rookie QB Josh Allen.
PICK: Jaguars win 20-13 and cover the spread.
New England Patriots (-10) at New York Jets
Sunday 1 p.m., CBS
The Patriots know they’ll have Tom Brady ready to rebound from a slump after the bye with better overall health around him. The Jets are not sure whether they'll have Sam Darnold, and regardless, their offense has been messy of late. Bill Belichick has been looking for a complete road performance, and he will get one in the first game of a six-week push for the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs.
PICK: Patriots win 33-17 and cover the spread.
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-6)
Sunday 1 p.m., Fox
The Giants, 3-7, have gotten the job done of late with plenty of Saquon Barkley and Odell Beckham Jr. while Eli Manning has played well enough to keep his job. The Eagles, 4-6, are trending toward New York’s level even though the Eagles beat the Giants in their first meeting this season (their last win). Philadelphia’s defense will keep struggling, but the offense will bail it out at home.
PICK: Eagles win 31-27 but fail to cover the spread.
San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5)
Sunday 1 p.m., Fox
Jameis Winston is back yet again as the Bucs’ starting quarterback, but nobody knows how long that will last. On paper, this looks good for Tampa Bay’s offense to stay balanced and explosive facing a San Francisco defense that offers little resistance. The 49ers will run the ball well and stay in it with Nick Mullens spreading the ball around, but they only have a few answers for Winston’s weapons on a long road trip with their hosts in total desperation mode.
PICK: Buccaneers win 30-27 but fail to cover the spread.
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers (-12)
Sunday 4:05 p.m., Fox
The Cardinals have played better offense of late by making David Johnson the focal point, making Josh Rosen relax and making some good plays with Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk. But Rosen is showing that he’s a rookie QB who needs a lot of work, and the Chargers’ defense with a full-speed Joey Bosa will be revved up and a little angrier after the loss to the Broncos. Melvin Gordon will go off to bring it home in a get-well game.
PICK: Chargers win 27-14 and cover the spread.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) at Denver Broncos
Sunday 4:25 p.m., CBS
The Steelers have won six consecutive games, and it’s not just because of their offense finding its sweet spot with Ben Roethlisberger, James Conner, Antonio Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Vance McDonald. Their defense has delivered, especially against the pass playing off T.J. Watt leading the charge up front. They will go back to containing the run and getting after Case Keenum once Big Ben and Conner grind them to a comfortable lead on the road.
PICK: Steelers win 27-20 and cover the spread.
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-3)
Sunday 8:20 p.m., NBC
The Packers know their playoff hopes are fading along with the tenure of Mike McCarthy in Green Bay. Aaron Rodgers will be game to try to save their season, but he won’t get as much help from Aaron Jones to create balance against the Vikings’ defense. Kirk Cousins and Dalvin Cook will rebound to give Minnesota its first SNF win in three tries this season to save its wild-card playoff push.
PICK: Vikings win 31-24 and cover the spread.
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (TBD)
Monday 8:15 p.m., ESPN
The Titans' offense disappeared in Indianapolis before Marcus Mariota went down with a stinger, putting his status for this game in doubt. Regardless of the QB, it’s hard to expect Tennessee to suddenly rediscover the MNF mojo it had in Dallas a few weeks ago. The Texans will make it eight straight wins and all but lock up the AFC South with J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney providing the prime-time exclamation points.
PICK: Texans win 27-17.
Last week’s record straight up: 5-8
Last week’s record against the spread: 4-6
Season record straight up: 93-52
Season record against the spread: 67-74
