Week 11 in the NFL brings another mega bye week with six teams not in action, giving us only 13 games on the schedule. Given the Patriots are the only good team among those with bye weeks, the double-digit point spreads that have ruled previous weeks are long gone. That makes the predictions harder this week with a lot of tough toss-up games.
Here is your fearless forecast for Week 11 — as usual, for entertainment purposes only. (Game lines courtesy of Bovada.)
MORE NFL PREDICTIONS:
Week 11 NFL picks straight up
Week 11 NFL picks against the spread
(All times ET)
Game of the Week: Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Rams (-2.5)
Monday 8:15 p.m., ESPN
The Chiefs are hoping to get former Ram Sammy Watkins back to help Patrick Mahomes, while Jared Goff knows he will be without Cooper Kupp for the rest of the season. Kareem Hunt and Todd Gurley will have an epic battle, creating a backfield wash. So it’s up to which QB can use his mobility to make more big plays downfield. Mahomes is the better strong-armed athlete and has more big-play targets, led by the tireless Tyreek Hill, a huge asset that can further burn former Chief Marcus Peters if needed. Kansas City will enjoy a bigger scoring fiesta and it doesn't matter that the game is now in L.A.
PICK: Chiefs win 41-38.
NFC Game of the Week: Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-3)
Sunday 8:20 p.m., NBC
The Bears are good at beating up bad teams, especially in the friendly confines of Solider Field. But they can be too pass-reliant with Mitchell Trubisky at times, even when it’s not working. They won’t be able to run well on Minnesota, and the Vikings' pass rush and corners will make it rough on Trubisky. The Vikings can do more out of the backfield with a healthy Dalvin Cook and Latavius Murray, and both Stefon Diggs and Adam Theilen will be a handful for Chicago’s secondary.
PICK: Vikings win 24-20.
Lock of the Week: New Orleans Saints (-9) over Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday 4:25 p.m., Fox
SN’s pick to win Super Bowl 53 is looking great to take care of business against the reeling Super Bowl 52 champions. The Eagles’ secondary is a mess, and last week, their once-reliable run defense was shredded by Ezekiel Elliott. Both of those developments are a nightmare ahead of a game against Drew Brees, Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram. On the other side, the Saints can stop the run, contain Zach Ertz and get after Carson Wentz, as Philadelphia lacks the speedy deep threat needed to burn New Orleans' secondary.
PICK: Saints win 38-24 and cover the spread.
NFL PLAYOFF PICTURE:
Chiefs, Steelers match 1-2 punch of Rams, Saints
Rest of the Week:
Carolina Panthers (-4) at Detroit Lions
Sunday 1 p.m., Fox
The Panthers are not as good of a defensive team on the road, and that will allow the lowly Lions to linger with young offensive stars Kerryon Johnson and Kenny Golladay. Cam Newton and Christian McCaffrey, will be difficult for Detroit to slow down on the ground, however, and Carolina will feel good taking some play-action shots in the passing game. This still feels like a field-goal escape at Ford Field.
PICK: Panthers win 27-24 but fail to cover the spread.
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (TBD)
Sunday 1 p.m., Fox
The Ravens could be staring Lamar Jackson at quarterback for the first time given Joe Flacco's injury. That’s a great thing, because it will make Baltimore more focused on running the ball and using multiple tight ends to support Jackson and Alex Collins against a struggling Cincinnati front seven. Andy Dalton will continue looking mostly lost without A.J. Green.
PICK: Ravens win 30-20.
Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (-3)
Sunday 1 p.m., Fox
The Cowboys should feel confident about Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott and the rest of the offense in a good all-around matchup. The Falcons struggle with explosive backs, but their back-end pass defense gets a needed break against a capped receiving corps. Dallas can keep Atlanta’s offense in check for a while, leading with Byron Jones on Julio Jones, but eventually, Matt Ryan will hit his groove at home to finish a comeback effort.
PICK: Falcons win 27-23 and cover the spread.
Houston Texans (-3) at Washington Redskins
Sunday 1 p.m., CBS
The Texans and Redskins both have surprising two-game leads in the NFL's two weakest divisions. This sets up to be an ugly game full of sacks and little traditional rushing success given the state of both offensive lines and the strength of both defensive fronts. Washington has a knack for winning ugly games, especially at home, by simply protecting the ball.
PICK: Redskins win 20-16.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday 1 p.m., CBS
The Steelers are red-hot offensively, and the Jaguars have gone cold defensively. But desperate Jacksonville will dig deep to find some of the success it had against Pittsburgh twice last season. The pass rush and Leonard Fournette will keep the hosts in another game before their once-prideful secondary succumbs late to Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster.
PICK: Steelers win 31-26 but fail to cover the spread.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants (-1.5)
Sunday 1 p.m., Fox
Ryan Fitzpatrick or Eli Manning? Just when you think you can go back to trusting one of these mid-30s quarterbacks, they let you down. Fitzpatrick was a turnover mess at home last week despite big yardage, while Manning is playing a little better coming off his first three-TD effort of the season. Between Saquon Barkley, Odell Beckham Jr., Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram, Manning will get more help than Fitzpatrick will get with Peyton Barber, Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson and O.J. Howard.
PICK: Giants win 27-24.
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-2)
Sunday 1 p.m., CBS
Marcus Mariota and Andrew Luck are both playing at a high level and getting plenty of help from their offensive lines, diverse weapons and deep running games. The Titans have a defense built to stop the run and contain tight ends and will be able to pressure Luck, something recent Indianapolis opponents haven’t done. The Colts have been scrappy against the run, but Mariota, Dion Lewis and Derrick Henry will get the better of the hosts on the ground.
PICK: Titans win 34-27.
MORE: NFL power rankings for Week 11
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-7)
Sunday 4:05 p.m., CBS
The Broncos are coming off their bye trying to save Vance Joseph’s job by finishing strong, especially offensively with their running game. The Chargers, however, have dumped on weak opponents all season, as Philip Rivers and Melvin Gordon have faced little defensive resistance. Case Keenum will once again make key mistakes against an opportunistic pass defense.
PICK: Chargers win 27-17 and cover the spread.
Oakland Raiders at Arizona Cardinals (-4)
Sunday 4:05 p.m. CBS
The Raiders look like they’ve given up offensively, as Doug Martin and Jared Cook are the only things going while Derek Carr feels almost non-existent. The Cardinals have rediscovered their juice as Byron Leftwich continues to deploy David Johnson correctly. Arizona’s defense has been playing well of late and will make sure the Raiders dry up in the desert before they get used to playing there in Las Vegas.
PICK: Cardinals win 27-10 and cover the spread.
Game of the Midweek: Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks (-3)
Thursday 8:20 p.m., Fox
Aaron Rodgers vs. Russell Wilson makes for a fun Thursday night affair, but even with their elite quarterbacks, these teams are now dedicated to the run. The Packers' Aaron Jones and the Seahawks’ likely fill-in committee of Mike Davis and Rashaad Penny will have success, so it comes down to which QB will have better protection. Wilson gets the edge at home, and his own running will make the difference.
PICK: Seahawks win 31-27 and cover the spread.
Last week’s record straight up: 8-6
Last week’s record against the spread: 7-6
Season record straight up: 93-52
Season record against the spread: 67-74
