Last week was a good week for our NFL picks against the spread; our best record of the season thus far, 11-2 for the 13 games to kick off November. There’s plenty of time to load up before Thanksgiving, and it’s not too early to think about what we want for Christmas: more accurate picks and more predictable games.
Will the sports books have another rough weekend, or is it another week of the public feasting on even bigger point spreads for favorites?
Here is your fearless forecast for Week 10 — as usual, for entertainment purposes only. (Game lines courtesy of Bovada.)
MORE NFL PREDICTIONS:
Week 10 NFL picks straight up
Week 10 NFL picks against the spread
(All times ET)
Game of the Midweek: Carolina Panthers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4)
Thursday 8:20 p.m., Fox
The Panthers' run defense is not as good on the road, and although Carolina might contain Antonio Brown with James Bradberry, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Vance McDonald are nightmare matchups in the passing game. The Steelers can stop the run and tee off on Cam Newton, as his receivers won’t pose the same problems for the hosts' weaknesses.
PICK: Steelers win 31-21 and cover the spread.
Game of the Week: Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-7)
Sunday 8:20 p.m., NBC
The Eagles are coming off a bye with new wide receiver Golden Tate, who had a monster game against the Cowboys in Week 4 while with the Lions. Dallas will be on the road on a short week, and Philadelphia will be well rested. The Eagles will be a in groove offensively with Carson Wentz operating RPOs made to throw off Big D's D. Meanwhile, Philly will gain its defensive edge by containing Ezekiel Elliott.
PICK: Eagles win 24-20 but fail to cover the spread.
Lock of the Week: Green Bay Packers (-10) over Miami Dolphins
Sunday 1 p.m., Fox
The Packers desperately need a victory at Lambeau Field to stay in the NFC playoff hunt. Offensive coordinator Joe Philbin gets to coach against his former team and knows Aaron Rodgers will be in a comfort zone throwing all over the field. Miami will try to hang around, but eventually, Green Bay will pull away after multiple mistakes by Brock Osweiler.
PICK: Packers win 31-14 and cover the spread.
MORE: Updated NFL playoff picture
Rest of the Week:
Arizona Cardinals at Kansas City Chiefs (-17)
Sunday 1 p.m., CBS
The Chiefs are unstoppable on offense at the moment with perfect playmaking symmetry between Patrick Mahomes and Kareem Hunt. The Cardinals will feature better offense around Josh Rosen after their bye, but ultimately, this will be too hostile a road environment for the rookie QB.
PICK: Chiefs win 38-14 and cover the spread.
Atlanta Falcons (-5) at Cleveland Browns
Sunday 1 p.m., Fox
The Falcons are flying high in their return to NFC playoff contention, and Matt Ryan will try to stay hot on the road for a second straight week. Getting the running game going with Tevin Coleman and Ito Smith was a key development for Atlanta, and it will continue in Cleveland. Baker Mayfield, however, has the weapons to attack the Falcons' defensive voids to make it interesting.
PICK: Falcons win 27-24 but fail to cover the spread.
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (-7-5)
Sunday 1 p.m., CBS
The Bills have a remedial offense, and the Jets are almost as anemic, as Sam Darnold has regressed and made more mistakes with lesser help. New York will lean heavily on its defense and running game to survive an ugly division game.
PICK: Jets win 17-10 but fail to cover the spread.
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-7)
Sunday 1 p.m., Fox
The Bears are good at beating up on bad teams outside of their division, but their struggles to power run the ball and issues in the secondary will allow the Lions to make this game too close for comfort at Soldier Field. Matthew Stafford is trending downward all of a sudden, however, and won’t be able to complete the comeback.
PICK: Bears win 24-20 but fail to cover the spread.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-3)
Sunday 1 p.m., Fox
With Leonard Fournette likely returning, the Jaguars are hoping to become the dominant team they thought they would be this season. But it’s hard to imagine Fournette being forced into a big workload right away, and the Jags' concerns against the Colts go way beyond the running back. Blake Bortles has not played well on the road, and their good pass defense can be neutralized by Andrew Luck getting the ball out quickly.
PICK: Colts win 23-17 and cover the spread.
New England Patriots (-7) at Tennessee Titans
Sunday 1 p.m., CBS
The Patriots will see some familiar faces, as Jon Robinson, Mike Vrabel, Dean Pees, Malcolm Butler and Dion Lewis all work for the opposite side. They hope to be a little healthier on offense with Sony Michel and Rob Gronkwoski, but if not, Tom Brady will find the right matchups in a spread passing game. The running of Marcus Mariota and Lewis can keep the Titans hanging around, but New England will exploit Butler for a couple key scoring plays to stay ahead.
PICK: Patriots win 30-21 and cover the spread.
New Orleans Saints (-5) at Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday 1 p.m., Fox
The Saints should be able to do anything they want on offense, as the Bengals have no answer at linebacker for Alvin Kamara and no cover man to contain Michael Thomas. Cincinnati also is not in position to keep up in a shootout without wide receiver A.J. Green, and Joe Mixon will be slowed by an elite run defense.
PICK: Saints win 34-24 and cover the spread.
Washington Redskins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)
Sunday 1 p.m., Fox
The Redskins' offensive line and receiving corps are crumbling around Alex Smith, which is putting a ton of pressure on their defense to keep from wearing down. They can stop the inside run, but Tampa Bay doesn't bother with that much. The Bucs will go to work downfield against Washington’s overmatched secondary.
PICK: Buccaneers win 30-23 and cover the spread.
Los Angeles Chargers (-10) at Oakland Raiders
Sunday 4:05 p.m., Fox
Against the Raiders, the Chargers won't get any resistance for Philip Rivers, Melvin Gordon, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams or Tyrell Williams. LA's defense is also starting to take advantage of opponents’ mistakes to raise the big-play quotient. Derek Carr and Oakland will be sucked further into the Black Hole.
PICK: Chargers win 27-14 and cover the spread.
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (-10)
Sunday 4:25 p.m., CBS
The Seahawks’ plan of trying to stay power run-heavy to set up Russell Wilson will not work well against the Rams. LA will force Seattle to throw the ball often, and all three Rams wideouts — Brandin Cooks, Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp — will be open for big plays as the Seahawks focus on Todd Gurley. Wilson will do some damage with his arm, but it won’t be enough.
PICK: Rams win 38-27 and cover the spread.
New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers (-3)
Monday 8:15 p.m., ESPN
The Giants should have a refreshed Saquon Barkley and Odell Beckham Jr. after the bye to make some big plays against an injury-riddled 49ers defense. But a confident Nick Mullens will see similar things open up in the passing game with more rushing success for San Francisco. The 49ers will win another game against a lowly team at home with the better effort, better coaching and better field-goal kicking.
PICK: 49ers win 26-20 and cover the spread.
Last week’s record straight up: 11-2
Last week’s record against the spread: 10-3
Season record straight up: 85-46
Season record against the spread: 60-68
