Welcome to another season of Sporting News' weekly NFL game predictions.
And now, with legal sports betting entering the mainstream, there is no more reason to wink at the point spreads.
MORE NFL PREDICTIONS:
Week 1 NFL picks straight up
A new season of action provides new hope for a whole new level of semi-professional prognostication. For entertainment purposes only, then, here are the Week 1 picks for 2018. (Game lines courtesy of Bovada.)
Week 1 NFL picks against the spread
(All times Eastern)
Upset of the Week: Pittsburgh Steelers (-6) at Cleveland Browns
Sunday 1 p.m., CBS
The Steelers' defense is headed for more uncharacteristic struggles reminiscent of their being ripped by the Jaguars in the divisional playoffs. The Browns will unleash a strong running game with Carlos Hyde to set up some shots downfield from Tyrod Taylor. Ben Roethlisberger will have just enough road woes against an improved Browns defense to allow the hosts a quick improvement on their win total from 2017.
PICK: Browns win 27-24
Game of Midweek: Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles (-3)
Thursday 8:20 p.m., NBC
Nick Foles is in line to start for the Eagles and try to build on his Super Bowl MVP performance. With both offenses in transition or hurting, this game will mirror the grind of the teams’ divisional playoff meeting. The Eagles will get their rings and ring in the new season by being stingy against Matt Ryan and Devonta Freeman.
PICK: Eagles win 20-19 but fail to cover the spread.
NFC Game of the Week: San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings (-6)
Sunday 1 p.m., Fox
Jimmy Garoppolo did once win a season opener for the Patriots in a hostile environment, but the Vikings’ defense behind all that noise will be the 49ers QB's biggest obstacle yet. Minnesota will shut down San Francisco's running game (now without former Viking Jerick McKinnon) and make it tough for Garoppolo to throw deep outside. The Niners’ defense is improved, but it has enough holes for Kirk Cousins to enjoy a solid debut with his new team.
PICK: Vikings win 24-17 and cover the spread.
AFC Game of the Week: Houston Texans at New England Patriots (-6.5)
Sunday 1 p.m., CBS
Deshaun Watson and Tom Brady dueled in a classic last season, and with both pass defenses a little improved but still having similar issues, this game can play out in a similar way. While Watson remains aggressive looking for big plays with DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller, Brady will be pushing the ball down the field with his backs, TE Rob Gronkowski and WR Chris Hogan. He’ll try to avoid having to put this one away in the final seconds and will give New England a little more breathing room.
PICK: Patriots win 34-27 and cover the spread.
Lock of the Week: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-9.5)
Sunday 1 p.m., Fox
Ryan Fitzpatrick will do his best to keep the Bucs competitive in a division opener on the road, but their retooled defense will keep reeling as Drew Brees and Alvin Kamara conduct the Saints’ offense to all that same, explosive jazz. New Orleans marches to control early and never looks back.
PICK: Saints win 30-14 and cover the spread.
Rest of the Week:
Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens (-7)
Sunday 1 p.m., CBS
The Bills are throwing Nathan Peterman at the Ravens’ swarming front, and the lumps will begin in what will be long season behind a diminished offensive line and with limited weapons. Joe Flacco goes to work with a more diverse passing game and with the power running of Alex Collins to set it up. There will be scoring, capped by a big Baltimore takeaway to seal the game.
PICK: Ravens win 27-10 and cover the spread.
Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts (-3)
Sunday 1 p.m., CBS
Andrew Luck’s return and Frank Reich’s debut will give the Colts the offensive vibes they need to edge what looks like a revamped Bengals attack around Andy Dalton. Healthier second-year players Joe Mixon and John Ross will run Cincy to a lead, but Luck will flex his Captain Comeback muscles for the first time in a long while.
PICK: Colts win 27-24.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) at New York Giants
Sunday 1 p.m., Fox
The Giants can’t wait to get Saquon Barkley and their improved running game out of the gate, but the rest of their offensive enthusiasm, including Odell Beckham Jr.’s return, will be curbed by Sacksonville. The Jacksonville offense will operate a better version of its run-heavy West Coast, and Leonard Fournette will buoy Blake Bortles to a solid day against a shaky defense that's in transition.
PICK: Jaguars win 27-13 and cover the spread.
Tennessee Titans (-1) at Miami Dolphins
Sunday 1 p.m., Fox
The Titans made the playoffs and won a wild-card game under Mike Mularkey, but they carry more upside with new coach Mike Vrabel. Marcus Mariota, Dion Lewis and Derrick Henry will have the new offense clicking at full speed, and Tennessee's defense will contain the run and tee off on Ryan Tannehill.
PICK: Titans win 42-17 and cover the spread.
Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers (-3)
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS
Patrick Mahomes will be pressured into mistakes because the game flow will not often be in his favor. The Chiefs will try to run Kareem Hunt as much as possible to ease Mahomes into his deep shots, but the Chargers’ pass defense is a big obstacle. The Chiefs’ overall defense won’t be able to handle Melvin Gordon or Philip Rivers, and KC will dig a hole out of which Mahomes will need to climb.
PICK: Chargers win 24-17 and cover the spread.
Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers (-3)
Sunday 4:25 p.m., Fox
The Cowboys will keep it close with their ball-control approach. The Panthers will force them off it, however, as Cam Newton, Devin Funchess and Christian McCaffrey get off to a fast start in Norv Turner’s offense against a typical bend-but-don’t-break defense. As much as Dallas likes its linebackers, the Carolina duo of Luke Kuechly and Shaq Thompson will be the one standing out in crunch time.
PICK: Panthers win 24-16 and cover the spread.
Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos (-3)
Sunday 4:25 p.m., Fox
Don’t be so quick to write off the Seahawks. They still have the dynamic, duel threat that is Russell Wilson. He will rob the Broncos of a home victory, outdueling Case Keenum despite facing the higher degree of defensive difficulty.
PICK: Seahawks win 20-17
Washington Redskins at Arizona Cardinals (pick 'em)
Sunday 4:25 p.m., Fox
This is a literal toss-up, because we don’t know how the new-look offenses will respond with two veteran QBs in Alex Smith and Sam Bradford. Both teams will struggle against the run, and only one has David Johnson. The Cardinals will bring the energy for Steve Wilks’ debut while the Redskin wilt the desert.
PICK: Cardinals win 27-21.
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-7.5)
Sunday 8:20 p.m., NBC
The Bears now have Khalil Mack to combat Aaron Rodgers, making Vic Fangio’s good defense a lot better. But Mitchell Trubisky is facing a sneaky-improved Green Bay defense in prime time on the road, and the Chicago QB still needs time to jell with his new skill players. Rodgers will produce, and Trubisky will be stuck in a one-dimensional funk in the second half.
PICK: Packers win 23-17 but fail to cover the spread.
New York Jets at Detroit Lions (-7)
Monday 7:10 p.m., ESPN
Sam Darnold will be confident in his debut, but it's hard to outplay Matthew Stafford at Ford Field. The Jets’ talented secondary will stymie Stafford at times, but the Lions’ improved running game with LeGarrette Blount and Kerryon Johnson will come into play and facilitate downfield passing in three-wide sets. Matt Patricia learned from Bill Belichick how to fluster rookie quarterbacks.
PICK: Lions win 23-17 but fail to cover the spread.
Los Angeles Rams (-4.5) at Oakland Raiders
Monday 10:20 p.m., ESPN
The Rams have built on their breakout season with more big names and more big money, including a big deal for their best player in Aaron Donald. On the other hand, Jon Gruden traded the Raiders’ best player, Khalil Mack, and they open the season even further removed from their 2016 playoff form.
PICK: Rams win 44-24 and cover the spread.
