Admit it: At this time a year ago, as football America prepared for the Patriots’ Super Bowl championship banner-raising, season-opening celebration, nobody reasonably believed that the NFL’s 2018 party would be held in Philadelphia. Yet, here we are. The season is upon us, and so is one of the more improbable phrases any of us have ever heard: defending-champion Eagles.
Good luck trying to guess who will be the host in September 2019, though. Don’t be surprised — and don’t get your feelings hurt — if it’s not Philly … or, for that matter, Foxborough, Mass. This league is fairly stable (the Patriots are always around at the end) and subject to wild swings of fate (this primetime debut could very easily have been taking place in New Orleans).
MORE NFL PREDICTIONS:
Week 1 NFL picks against the spread
This year, lean toward the wild swings. More teams than usual went all-in for 2018, and between that and the returning stars — hey there, Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers — the teams that will meet in Atlanta in February is anyone's guess.
And, speaking of guessing ...
Week 1 NFL picks, predictions
(All times ET)
Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles
Thursday, 8:20 p.m., NBC
There's no shortage of motivation for either team in the kickoff to the new season. The Eagles want to defend what they won and prove they’re no one-year wonder. The Falcons want to be the home team in Super Bowl 53. They also want to avenge their elimination in last year’s divisional round in Philly, sealed by a late goal-line stand punctuated by some questionable play-calling. Nick Foles starts this game, as he started that one and every postseason game last year. He did not have a good preseason, which may or may not mean anything. The Eagles defense, retooled (this is Michael Bennett’s debut), likely will make it all moot.
Prediction: Eagles, 26-23
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
The Steelers’ front office may have been “disappointed” with Le’Veon Bell’s continued absence over his contract, but they’re not disappointed with starting off with a cupcake. Whatever big turnaround the Browns believe is underway won’t be reflected in the win column yet. The real drama here is how sharp Bell will be with no training camp … or who replaces him if he doesn't play.
Prediction: Steelers, 37-17
Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Giants
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
Tom Coughlin gets to smirk at the team that shoved him out, right in their building. Saquon Barkley gets to introduce himself to the NFL against one of the NFL’s more fearsome defenses, if not the most. Eli Manning gets to prove that he only needed a threat like Odell Beckham Jr. back to prove he’s still the quarterback he once was. Blake Bortles gets to live up to the expectations of having fallen one game short of the Super Bowl. And Pat Shurmur gets to show he’s earned a second shot at a head-coaching job.
Prediction: Jaguars, 20-16
Houston Texans at New England Patriots
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
It's both a different team facing the Patriots than last year … and the same. Deshaun Watson announced his presence in that narrow loss in his second NFL start; now his return from his torn ACL is in the same building. J.J. Watt is back, and he’s joined by Tyrann Mathieu. The Patriots, again, are tempting fate by shuffling the roster around Tom Brady and figuring a way to make it work. Thus, whatever happens likely won’t reflect who they are by December and January.
Prediction: Texans, 31-29
Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
How many games between teams this mediocre will get the attention this one will? Andrew Luck is back after missing all of 2017, and after going through some expected and unexpected ups and downs in training camp. He really has little help around him, but if he’s back to where he was pre-shoulder issues, he can carry the Colts surprisingly far. The Bengals are, well, still the Bengals, and Marvin Lewis is still Marvin Lewis.
Prediction: Bengals, 27-24
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
The Saints, remember, missed the NFL title game by the margin of a Minnesota Miracle, and with the year of growth and big additions (not even counting Teddy Bridgewater), are a popular Super Bowl pick. The Bucs open with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback because Jameis Winston is suspended. Mark Ingram also brings a suspension for the Saints, but they have the cushion of Alvin Kamara and recently-signed Mike Gillislee.
Prediction: Saints, 38-21
San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
Jimmy Garoppolo in his first opening day as the 49ers’ franchise quarterback. Kirk Cousins, same as the Vikings’ franchise quarterback. That’s enough to get the nation to tune in. If that’s not enough, there’s the sight of Richard Sherman in a game that counts in a uniform other than the Seahawks. On the other hand, there’s no Jerick McKinnon, for either side. He left the Vikings to become a valued, versatile feature back in San Francisco, only to tear his ACL before the season. His loss can’t be understated. On the Vikings’ side, Dalvin Cook is back from his own ACL tear.
Prediction: Vikings, 30-28
Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
Two teams on opposite sides of the result of Andy Dalton’s fourth-down, last-minute touchdown pass in the season finale; it knocked the Ravens out of the playoffs and let the Bills in. Buffalo's reaction was to gut its quarterback room; the notorious Nathan Peterman starts and Josh Allen waits. A healthy and motivated Joe Flacco starts for the Ravens, and Lamar Jackson waits (as does Robert Griffin III). The Ravens’ defense, even without the suspended Jimmy Smith, should make all this who’s-in-and-out quarterback talk irrelevant.
Prediction: Ravens, 19-16
Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
A team that replaces its head coach after stirring a playoff victory (out Mike Mularkey, in Mike Vrable) is also worth a peek. Marcus Mariota’s continued progress is worth one, too; if last season and this preseason are any indication, he’s going to be the king of measurable effect with unconventional stats. Logic dictates that the Titans defense can manhandle the Dolphins offense no matter what Ryan Tannehill looks like in his return.
Prediction: Titans, 24-19
Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers
Sunday, 4:05 p.m., CBS
Things would have to go catastrophically wrong in both organizations for this not to be a matchup of the two top contenders for the AFC West title. Patrick Mahomes would be the wild-card in this, as this is his debut as the opening-day starter, and he looked so preposterously good it seems like he’s dues for some bumps once the games count. The Chargers are the favorites in most corners; if they keep Philip Rivers healthy, they should handle the trip and avoid any stretch like the one that began last season.
Prediction: Chargers, 30-26
Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., Fox
How many plot lines can be squeezed into one opener? Ezekiel Elliott without NFL discipline hanging over his head. Dak Prescott needing to re-prove himself. Dez Bryant, gone but on everybody's minds too much. Jason Witten, also gone. Randy Gregory back. That’s one team. The other, which chronically cannot protect its $60 million franchise quarterback, lost left tackle Matt Kalil for the season.
Prediction: Panthers, 33-24
Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., Fox
In Denver, if Case Keenum is really the answer, the Broncos can make a real run, because they have practically everything else. If he’s not, then John Elway himself will have to suit up again to make up for his ineptitude in filling the position. In Seattle, quarterback is about the only position truly settled, which really isn't how it’s supposed to work … and, in this game, might get Russell Wilson killed. Meanwhile, the Earl Thomas watch continues.
Prediction: Broncos, 19-17
Washington Redskins at Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., Fox
Steve Wilks gets his long-awaited opportunity as a head coach. Somehow, Jay Gruden gets a fifth season as one. The two quarterbacks in charge are curiosities in their own ways, Alex Smith in Washington and Sam Bradford in Arizona. David Johnson’s return significantly alters the Cardinals’ playoff hopes, and that likely will affect how long Larry Fitzgerald sticks with it.
Prediction: Cardinals, 33-20
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
Sunday, 8:20 p.m., NBC
Do not let 2017 records fool you. NBC should be on its knees in gratitude for how this game, riveting enough on its own merits (historic rivalry, Aaron Rodgers’ return, Bears’ retooling), became must-see TV when the Bears fleeced the Raiders for Khalil Mack. Seriously, what else do you need?
Prediction: Bears, 27-24
New York Jets at Detroit Lions
Monday, 7:10 p.m., ESPN
As a longtime Patriots assistant, new Lions coach Matt Patricia should have plenty of knowledge about beating the Jets. That includes Jets teams with high expectations, thanks to Sam Darnold and one of the more impressive five-win seasons in recent memory. Speaking of expectations, the Lions have the mini-Patriots brain trust in charge now. Excuses will be running low.
Prediction: Jets, 27-26
Los Angeles Rams at Oakland Raiders
Monday, 10:20 p.m., ESPN
The opening week comes full circle, featuring the team in position to dethrone the Eagles in the NFC thanks to a hyperactive offseason. Nope, not the Raiders, who might be facing a full-scale rebellion in the Coliseum on this night as the final years in Oakland commence with Jon Gruden but without Mack. The clock is ticking, for different reasons, for both the Rams and Raiders.
Prediction: Rams, 38-13
