The playoff race is starting to take shape in the USFL after another unpredictable week of action that saw no teams clinch a spot. However, in Week 8, we saw the Showboats win their fifth-straight game and keep pace with the Stallions in the South division, who defeated the Stars 27-24 in a rematch of last season's USFL title game. Birmingham is the overwhelming betting favorite to repeat as champions at +275, while the Showboats are +600 to take home the title.
Week 9 begins on Saturday with a doubleheader at noon ET between the Panthers (3-5) and Maulers (2-6) on FOX. Michigan clinch a spot in the playoffs with a win over Pittsburgh and a Philadelphia win over New Jersey on Sunday. Then at 3 p.m. ET, the Breakers (3-3) will look to snap the Showboats' five-game winning streak (5-3) on FS1. On Sunday afternoon, the Stallions (6-2) will try to clinch a playoff spot with a win over the Gamblers (5-3) at 2 p.m. ET on NBC. Finally, to wrap up an eventful Week 9, the Stars (2-4) will battle the reeling Generals (2-6) at 7 p.m. ET on FOX.
Below, we'll break down the Week 9 odds and give out our predictions on how things could play out across the league this weekend.
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USFL Week 9 picks, predictions
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Michigan Panthers at Pittsburgh Maulers
Saturday, noon ET, FOX
- Spread: Panthers -1.5 (-105); Maulers +1.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Panthers -120; Maulers +100
- Over/Under: 41
When Michigan and Pittsburgh played each other in Week 5 at Ford Field, the Maulers dominated on both sides of the ball with a 23-7 win. Pittsburgh QB Troy Williams had a great all-around performance with 243 total yards, three touchdowns, and an interception. Meanwhile, the Maulers' defense forced the Panthers into four turnovers and held them to 18 yards on the ground.
Could we see the same scenario play out this weekend in Canton, Ohio? It's a strong possibility, as Pittsburgh should've defeated Houston last week after being up 16-6 going into the fourth quarter. However, Pitt's offense struggled in the red zone (1-for-3) and could not stop Gamblers RB Mark Thompson.
The good news for Pittsburgh is Michigan's ground game is struggling to take off this season. According to RJ Young, 22 percent of the Panthers' rushing attempts have gone for negative yardage. That's an indictment on the offensive line and RBs Reggie Corbin and Stevie Scott III. Bettors should expect this to be another low-scoring game, as both defenses can get after the quarterback and create turnovers. However, we like the Maulers to get the home win despite Josh Love playing better over the last two weeks.
Pick: Maulers 20 (+1.5), Panthers 17
New Orleans Breakers at Memphis Showboats
Saturday, 3 p.m. ET, NBC
- Spread: Breakers +1.5 (-110); Showboats -1.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Breakers +100; Showboats -120
- Over/Under: 42.5
Don't look now, but the Showboats are in the thick of the USFL South playoff race and have a league-high five-game winning streak. Memphis is coming off a solid win over the Generals last week, where they forced New Jersey into three turnovers and got a fantastic performance from RB Kerrith Whyte (102 rushing yards and a touchdown on 23 carries).
If the Showboats want to get the season sweep over the Breakers on Saturday afternoon, they must create a few turnovers again, which they did in Week 5 (3 turnovers) against New Orleans. Speaking of New Orleans, they held on for a 24-20 win against the Panthers last weekend after jumping out to a 21-0 lead. The Breakers had three turnovers but snapped their three-game losing skid. McLeod Bethel-Thompson completed 73.5 percent of his passes for 328 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions. Both touchdown passes went to WR Johnnie Dixon, who went off for nine receptions (12 targets) for 136 yards.
The Breakers needed a big performance from their passing game, as Wes Hills was held to 36 yards and a touchdown on 23 carries. It's tough to see Hills having success against the Showboats' run defense, which allows 99.4 yards per game. However, the Breakers have a better passing attack than the Showboats, giving them the upper hand in this pivotal matchup.
Pick: Breakers 24 (+1.5), Showboats 20
Birmingham Stallions at Houston Gamblers
Sunday, 2 p.m. ET, NBC
- Spread: Stallions -3.5 (-110); Gamblers +3.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Stallions -175; Gamblers +145
- Over/Under: 45.5
The best game of the weekend will happen on Sunday afternoon between the Stallions and the Gamblers. If Birmingham picks up the road win, they will punch their ticket to the postseason for the second-straight year. However, if Skip Holtz's crew loses, things could get interesting in the USFL's South division heading into the final week of the regular season.
The Stallions received a wake-up call from the Stars in the first half last weekend but rallied in the fourth quarter, scoring 17 points to come away with the 27-24 win. Birmingham quarterback Alex McGough had another MVP performance, completing 68.6 percent of his passes for 333 yards and three touchdowns. McGough has now set the modern USFL record for passing (16) and total (20) TDs. He will try to carry that momentum into this week's game against the Gamblers, who defeated the Stallions 27-20 in Week 5.
In that game, the Gamblers did not have QB Kenji Bahar due to injury, but it didn't matter as the Stallions had no answer for RB Mark Thompson, who had 78 yards on 16 carries and three touchdowns. Thompson leads the USFL in rushing touchdowns (13) this season and is the all-time spring football rushing TD leader in the 21st century. If the Stallions want to get the win, they must contain Thompson and keep him out of the end zone. Birmingham has struggled to stop the run this season, allowing 121.6 yards per game (second-most in the USFL). Houston will get its points on Sunday, but McGough and the Stallions cover the spread and clinch a playoff berth.
Pick: Stallions 27 (-3.5), Gamblers 23
Philadelphia Stars at New Jersey Generals
Sunday, 7 p.m. ET, FS1
- Spread: Stars -2.5 (-105); Generals +2.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Stars -135; Generals +115
- Over/Under: 43.5
In the final game of Week 9, the Stars will try to clinch a playoff spot with a win over the Generals. New Jersey has struggled mightily this season, losing five consecutive games. The Generals are averaging 17.2 points per game but have been outscored by an average of 4.8 points throughout their losing skid. It shows that New Jersey isn't getting blown out, but they haven't received consistent quarterback play as Kyle Lauletta, Dakota Prukop, and De'Andre Johnson have struggled.
The Generals hope to have Johnson under center for this weekend's game after not playing last week due to a concussion he suffered in Week 7 against Michigan. New Jersey might have a chance to win if Johnson can play, but it's hard to trust them. As for the Stars, they came up short against the Stallions last week, despite a good showing from Case Cookus (265 yards, three touchdowns, and an interception). One of Cookus' TD passes went to wide receiver Corey Coleman, who had four receptions (eight targets) for 107 yards. The Stars will not have RB Matt Colburn II and CB Channing Stribling for Sunday as they were placed on injured reserve Tuesday. However, if Philadelphia can convert inside the red zone, they should walk away with the win.
Pick: Stars 24 (-2.5), Generals 20
