The Dolphins were favored to win the AFC East with just two weeks in the season, but they couldn't find a way to beat the Ravens or Bills to clinch a top-two seed in the conference.
The failure to do so has now put Miami at a disadvantage entering its wild-card game.
The Dolphins still have a chance to win their matchup against the Chiefs. Kansas City hasn't been its usual, explosive self on offense this season, so if Miami can get Tyreek Hill and De'Von Achane going, the Dolphins could find a way to earn a key road victory.
That said, it isn't easy to win at Arrowhead Stadium thanks to the hostile atmosphere it creates for opposing teams. And it won't be easy for the Dolphins to perform consistently in what looks like the league's coldest-weather contest of the season to date.
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Currently, it's projected to be in the single digits in Kansas City on Saturday, and temperatures may drop below zero before the game even kicks off. That could spell trouble for the Dolphins because of Tua Tagovailoa's record and stats during cold weather. Here's what to know about his struggles in low temperatures:
Tua Tagovailoa cold weather games record
Tua Tagovailoa has a 0-6 record when the temperature peaks at 45 degrees or lower during one of his games. And when the temperature is below 40 degrees, he is 0-3 overall.
Comparatively, Tagovailoa's record when the temperature is above 45 degrees is 32-13, good for a .727 winning percentage. That would rank as the eighth-highest all-time among quarterbacks to play in at least 45 career games.
Tua Tagovailoa in cold weather stats
Of course, quarterback wins aren't always the best indicator of success, as a myriad of other factors can cause a team to lose any given week.
That said, in Tagovailoa's case, it appears that he has played a major role in Miami's inability to win in near-and-below-freezing conditions.
Tagovailoa has thrown multiple touchdown passes just twice in the seven games he has played in weather at or below 45 degrees. Only one of his outings saw him throw more touchdowns than interceptions, as turnovers have become an issue for Tua when the temperature drops.
Below is a look at Tagovailoa's stats in colder weather from his six-game sample:
| Stat | Total |
| Record | 0-6 |
| Comp. % | 56.9 |
| Passing yards | 1,519 |
| Pass TDs | 87 |
| Interceptions | 11 |
| Yards per attempt | 6.8 |
| Passer rating | 67.62 |
Those numbers paint a bleak picture of the Dolphins' chances of scoring consistently on the Chiefs. So, if Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City offense show up on Saturday — something that hasn't happened as much as we're accustomed to seeing this season — it might be hard for Tagovailoa to do enough to keep his offense in the game.
Perhaps Tua will be able to log his best-ever cold-weather performance in Kansas City. But with the game shaping up to be the coldest of his career, it's hard to trust him in this spot.
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Dolphins vs. Chiefs weather forecast
The coldest game that Tagovailoa has played to date saw the temperature peak at 35 degrees in Week 17 of the 2021 NFL season against the Bills.
Saturday's game in Kansas City figures to be much colder. In fact, it may be among the coldest in NFL history.
According to Weather.com, the temperature will peak at just 10 degrees Fahrenheit in Kansas City on Saturday. There will be 10 to 15 mph winds throughout the day with an 11 percent chance for snow.
Once night falls, the temperature will drop to a bitter negative-6 degrees. The winds of at least 10 mph will continue while chances of snow rise to 60 percent. There isn't expected to be a lot of snow — merely "accumulations less than one inch" — but that is another obstacle that Miami must overcome in this contest.
The added issue for the Dolphins? The game is scheduled to be played at 8 p.m. ET, nearly three hours after sunset. So, as the game goes on, it should only get colder.
That will provide Tagovailoa and Co. with arguably their toughest test to date — barring changes to the forecast.
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Coldest games in NFL history
The Ice Bowl of 1967, played between the Packers and Cowboys, remains the coldest game in NFL history. It was negative 13 degrees when those two teams met on New Year's Eve, a game during which Green Bay eked out a 21-17 win.
The Chiefs-Dolphins game doesn't project to reach those levels, but it may make rare history as the fifth-ever NFL contest to have a sub-zero temperature at kickoff. Here's a look at the previous four:
| Date | Result | Temperature | Site |
| Dec. 31, 1967 | Packers 21, Cowboys 17 (Ice Bowl) | -13 degrees | Green Bay |
| Jan. 10, 1982 | Bengals 27, Chargers 7 (Freezer Bowl) | -9 degrees | Cincinnati |
| Jan. 10, 2016 | Seahawks 10, Vikings 9 | -6 degrees | Minneapolis |
| Jan. 20, 2008 | Giants 23, Packers 20 | -1 degrees | Green Bay |
The Dolphins will be hoping it doesn't reach that dire, below-zero number. But regardless of where the thermometer lands, it figures to give an edge to the Chiefs.
