There are a lot of harsh questions about whether Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce is showing his age early in the 2024 NFL season. That's because Kelce, who will turn 35 on Oct. 5, is off to the worst statistical start to his Hall of Fame career.
Kelce has been targeted just 12 times through Kansas City's first three games. Even worse, he has totaled only eight catches for 69 yards against the Ravens, Bengals, and Falcons and is still looking for his first touchdown catch.
During the previous two seasons as the Chiefs made back-to-back Super Bowl runs, Kelce was used to dominating targets. On pace for only 68 looks this season, Kelce had 152 targets in 2022 and 121 in 2023. Combined over both seasons, his target share was at 22.5 percent while the team struggled to find its way in the wide receiver corps.
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So far this season, Kelce's target share is down to 14 percent (12 out of the team's 86). Meanwhile, second-year wide receiver Rashee Rice leads the team with 29 targets for a 33.7 percent share.
Kelce has seen the ball much less than usual from Patrick Mahomes and is doing less with it. Those familiar, high-volume opportunities will come, however, to end his slumping stats in the critical AFC West division game vs. the Chargers.
Expect Kelce to produce more in Week 4 than he did in Weeks 1-3 combined. The Chargers have a new defense, going from Brandon Staley to Jesse Minter under Jim Harbaugh. But after seeing some strong double-teaming as opponents have let Rice run free to make big plays for Mahomes, a more typical Kelce game is looming.
Here's breaking down why Kelce will deliver the breakout game that Swifties, Chiefs Kingdom, and fantasy football managers have been waiting for on Sunday.
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Travis Kelce has owned the Chargers over the past four seasons
The Chargers used to contain Kelce well early in his career, but that has changed since 2020. Overall, in 18 games vs. them, he has caught 100 of 139 targets for 1,223 yards and eight TDs. But check out the first 12 times vs. the most recent six:
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Kelce vs. the Chargers, 2014-2019
- Totals: 51 receptions on 71 targets for 493 yards and 1 TD
- Average/game: 4 catches for 41 yards, 10.3 yards per catch
Kelce vs. the Chargers, 2020-2023
- Totals: 49 catches on 68 targets for 630 yards and 7 TDs
- Average/game: 8 catches for 105 yards, 12.9 yards per catch
That's notable from Kelce's recent past, but there's also some good news for his near future.
The Chargers' defense has given it up vs. the tight end this season
Los Angeles has tightened itself everywhere with Minter. The Chargers have the NFL's No. 6 run defense in terms of average yards allowed per game (91.7) and are No. 7 in average yards yielded per carry (3.9). They also boast the No. 10 passing defense, allowing 195.3 yards per game.
Although that's a small three-game sample size vs. three of the more limited NFL offenses (Raiders, Panthers, Steelers), the Chargers' scheming and effort have improved. They also prevent big plays well and have compressed offenses, allowing just 8.6 yards per catch.
Mahomes has gotten used to that. Rice has broken out for some long downfield gains, but through his 24 catches for 288 yards, he's averaging 12 yards per catch. Kelce is at 8.6 after coming off a 2023 season at 10.6, a considerable drop from his career average of 12.5.
The Chargers will open up the area in the intermediate middle of the field. Here's what opponents' tight ends have produced against them this season;
- Week 1 vs. Raiders: 8 catches for 61 yards on 11 targets
- Week 2 vs. Panthers: 5 catches for 31 yards on 6 targets
- Week 3 vs. Steelers: 5 catches for 35 yards on 6 targets
That seems like modest production, but in each case, the teams tried to exploit the Chargers' tight end coverage. Rice works the slot about half the time, and there he will see a much-improved Ja'Sir Taylor in coverage. Kelce should see a lot of 31-year-old linebacker Denzel Perryman, who has had a surprisingly good start in coverage after being awful in that capacity the past two seasons.
The Chargers will be without Derwin James
The game matchups should tilt Mahomes to target Kelce at a more regular rate downfield and in the red zone. However, Kelce also gets a break without needing to worry about hard-hitting safety Derwin James, who is suspended for the game.
James' resume includes a WWE-style body slam on Kelce in a 2022 meeting. Getting "powerbombed" by James lingered for Kelce through 2023, when he admitted on his "New Heights" podcast that he chose to skip the meaningless Week 18 regular-season finale despite being only 16 yards short of an eighth straight 1,000-yard season.
James got suspended for repeat violations of the NFL player safety policy because of his hit on Steelers tight end Pat Freiermuth in Week 3 Kelce can feel a lot more comfortable after the catch over the middle with no James.
Everything points to Kelce putting up continued big numbers on the Chargers and quieting his many new critics in the process.
