Is it really too early for all the too-early 2017 NFL mock drafts?
Not really, believe it or not. But it’s a great time to remember how much can happen in one year in college football, in the life and career of a young player, and examine the belief that things don’t change nearly as much as they really do.
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For example, here’s a name that was all over the upper half of several — probably most — 2016 mock drafts compiled within a week or so of the 2015 draft: Shawn Oakman.
Back in May 2015, the the sky was the limit for the 6-8, 290-pound, cartoonishly ripped Baylor defensive end. A year later — after a subpar senior season and, far worse, a sexual assault charge and the revelation of a past domestic abuse incident — he went undrafted.
Sports Illustrated’s early 2016 mock from last May had Oakman as the No. 1 overall pick.
That’s not to single them out, either. The draft itself is an inexact science, predictions are even less exact, and predictions a year in advance are an over-the-shoulder fling at the dart board.
In most cases, that is. A look back at five too-early mocks from May 2015 — ESPN (subscription required), CBSSports.com, Bleacher Report, SI.com and SB Nation — shows that all five had Ohio State’s Joey Bosa going in the top three. Three of them had him third overall — exactly where the Chargers drafted him last week. The other two had him first. (Ed.: So did SN.)
Other names that surfaced regularly in the first round, sometimes impressively close to their real eventual draft slot, were running back Ezekiel Elliott, tackles Ronnie Stanley and Jack Conklin, cornerbacks Jalen Ramsey and Vernon Hargreaves and defensive tackle DeForest Buckner.
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Then there were the players projected as first-round picks whose prospects were derailed by the most predictable factor of all: injuries.
Linebacker Jaylon Smith was a first-rounder in four of the five mocks, and top 10 in three of those. Linebacker Myles Jack was on four of the lists; so was cornerback Kendall Fuller.
Laremy Tunsil, meanwhile, hit the too-early mocks in everybody’s top 10. By Combine time he was No. 1, had slipped to between third and sixth by draft night … and everybody knows what happened then. Nothing could be less predictable a year before than that.
Auburn’s Duke Williams is in the Oakman category. Last year at this time, he was in the same wide-receiver conversation as eventual first-rounder and SEC rival Laquon Treadwell, and was in four of the five early mocks. He was kicked off the team in October after a bar fight, and last week he went undrafted.
Then there were the players who weren't on the fast track to the first round a year ago: defensive end Shaq Lawson, cornerback Eli Apple, wide receiver Josh Doctson and safety Keanu Neal.
Shockingly (not shockingly), the hardest position to evaluate so far ahead was quarterback.
Jared Goff, the eventual first player taken, was not named in two of the early mocks. In two others, he was a top 10 player.
The first quarterback off the board in four of the five was Christian Hackenberg; ESPN had him going No. 1 overall. In the fifth mock, he went one pick after Goff. Last week, he was a second-round pick.
Cardale Jones, coming off of a national championship at Ohio State, is a first-round pick in all five. Last week, he was the last pick in the fourth round.
Another unanimous first-rounder, Connor Cook, went early in the fourth.
And not mentioned in these, or any other too-early mock draft to anyone’s knowledge: North Dakota State quarterback Carson Wentz.
That’s the ultimate proof that too early sometimes really does mean too early.