The Buccaneers know for sure that they will be replacing Tom Brady at quarterback for 2022 and beyond. But Brady's retirement doesn't affect only one position — it leads Tampa Bay into a tricky offseason mentality.
The Bucs would have been confident Super Bowl contenders for one more season with Brady. Now they're facing an identity crisis. Best case, they find a veteran replacement capable of keeping them as a strong NFC playoff team. Worst case, they get gutted personnel and coaching-wise to the point of needing a massive reconstruction.
Now that Brady is gone, here are the biggest questions facing his most recent former team in the NFL:
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How quickly does Rob Gronkowski follow Tom Brady in retirement?
Gronkowski's two-year tenure with the Buccaneers, coming out of his short retirement from the Patriots, was tied to Brady. He's entering his Age 33 season with even more wear and tear. He's headed to stay unsigned and leave the NFL ror real. O.J. Howard is also a free agent at the position, so the Bucs wold be down to Cameron Brate after just having so much depth. Brady's play was huge, but so was his ability to reheat his connection with Gronkowski.
Will Bruce Arians reconsider his own retirement?
Arians also stepped away from another team, the Cardinals, before going back to work in the NFL with the Buccaneers. His three-season return has been fruitful with his first Super Bowl ring thanks to GM Jason Licht being able to pull Brady to Tampa Bay. At 69, Arians quickly declared after the divisional playoff loss to the Rams that he would back for one more season. But as he's given his staff full permission to take other jobs — offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich might be the coach of the Jaguars soon — there's a chance Arians could rethink things, now that he's no longer working with Brady.
Lean toward Arians seeing the season through as he turns 70, but he could be there just to bridge the franchise into the big transition ahead.
Could the Buccaneers reboot with Aaron Rodgers?
Should the Bucs keep their coaching group together and Licht can work out some in-house free agency solutions, that would mean the team remains in a "win big again now" mind-set for one more season That would also mean the Buccaneers would focus on finding a QB who can bring Brady's high level of play to keep lifting their solid roster, with an explosive, efficient offense and a complementary playmaking defense.
Rodgers, with the Packers not being able to breakthrough in the NFC playoffs, is the only veteran interested in changing teams who can deliver at Brady's MVP-caliber for the Buccaneers. Russell Wilson is out there, too, at a notch below. The chance to play with another all-time QB talent can also rejuvenate Arians. Rodgers, who turns 39 next December, also would be more than a one-season answer should he warm up to Tampa Bay and get hot the way Brady did.
Brady was a free agent in 2020, so the Buccaneers had to only convince him to sign post-Patriots to replace Jameis Winston. The Buccaneers would have to give up key draft assets for Rodgers, which could hurt their ability to fill some key holes. But don't be surprised if the Bay-to-Bay rumors for Rodgers would grow into real possibility. Wilson, meanwhile, is only 33.
What do the Buccaneers do about their own free agents?
The Buccaneers can navigate the salary cap well with Licht and still lose key personnel. Gronkowski and Howard aren't under contract for 2022. Neither is ace slot wide receiver Chris Godwin, who played on the franchise tag last season and is coming off a late torn ACL. Four running backs, Leonard Fournette, Ronald Jones, Giovani Bernard and Le'Veon Bell, are all unsigned, leaving Ke'Shawn Vaughn alone on the depth chart. The other key offensive free agent is center Ryan Jensen.
Defensively, the Buccaneers need to worry about contracts for five of 11 starters in their base 3-4: Defensive ends Ndamukong Suth and William Gholston, edge rusher Jason Pierre-Paul, cornerback Carlton Davis and safety Jordan Whitehead.
Tampa Bay doesn't have much cap space, just under $8 million and it's uncertain how much extra would be created in the wake of Brady's retirement after he was set to count $20.27 million toward it. The Buccaneers might need to use some of that bump in available money to accept a contract for a veteran replacement. They would likely focus their signings on the offense with appeasing that next QB in mind knowing they have some reserve youngsters ready to step into bigger roles defensively.
Whatever the Buccaneers do, they will be removed in some form from the complete team that won Super Bowl 55 and was in good playoff position to get to Super Bowl 56.
What are the Buccaneers' other bridge QB options?
The Buccaneers might have too much uncertainty at other positions and not enough reasonable salary means to make it work with Rodgers (or Wilson) in trying to re-create the Brady second-time magic. But as the Saints, Falcons and Panthers all have their share of bigger issues in the NFC South, the Buccaneers also might think they can make one more run in the NFC playoffs with an above-average veteran option.
Don't expect Ryan Fitzpatrick or Jameis Winston to be back in Tampa Bay. But now the Buccaneers seem like a new good landing spot for Jimmy Garoppolo, who has played in last game for the 49ers with Trey Lance looming. Brady can be a big influence in getting his friend and mentee to become the next starting passer for Arians, giving Garoppolo the chance to succeed Brady that he didn't get in New England.
Another two names to watch are Ryan Tannehill and Derek Carr. The Titans could pivot to thinking about drafting a first-round QB with a hight ceiling than Tannehill, not being able to break through with the QB in the AFC playoffs. They can't do that responsibly without moving Tannehill's contract in a trade. The Raiders, with Brady's former Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels as head coach, may want a change from Carr at QB, perhaps with Garoppolo in mind.
Garoppolo, Tannehill and Carr aren't Brady-level replacements, but they're all still good seasoned leaders and above-averaged playoff QBs. The Buccaneers pass-friendly system with Arians, plus strong line and skill support, can also lift such a QB's game. This isn't getting Rodgers (or Wilson), but it would be better short-term than expediting rebuilding.
How much do the Buccaneers like Kyle Trask?
The Buccaneers used a second-round pick on Trask in 2021 NFL Draft. The Florida product has some arm and accuracy promise as a proficient pocket passer. He also developed well on the bench behind Brady for a year, absorbing everything he could about playing QB from the GOAT.
Top backup Blaine Gabbert isn't taking over the job from Brady. Trask might and the chance to get another young QB on the right track early (see Ben Roethlisberger, Andrew Luck) should be appealing as a post-Brady challenge for Arians.
Throwing Trask in the Year 2 fire, however, also means the Buccaneers can't expect to win at close to the same level. Just in the division, they would suddenly fall behind the Saints, Falcons and Panthers at quarterback, vs. Matt Ryan and whoever starts for New Orleans and Carolina. With the vibe of Trask starting, the unsigned veterans would lean toward better situations elsewhere. The Buccaneers would go from one of the NFC favorites to mediocre again, a slip back from the 2019 results.
Trask could have the magic of Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow in his second season. But it's more likely his initial ceiling is more what Jalen Hurts did for the Eagles in 2021.
What are the Buccaneers' priorities in the 2022 NFL Draft?
If the Buccaneers don't get Rodgers (or Wilson) for Brady, can't make a good bridge option work and don't have faith in Trask, then they would need to consider their QB options when they pick first at No. 27 overall. Cincinnati's Desmond Ridder, North Carolina's Sam Howell and Nevada's Carson Strong are all (for now) right in that wheelhouse.
Should they solve QB before the draft, they have a few clear directions. Offensively, the Buccaneers need to think about getting some extra receiving help, either at wideout or tight end or both, and maybe use a later pick for another young running back to complement Vaughn. Defensively, reinforcing their front three around Vita Vea and addressing the secondary with Davis and Whitehead likely to walk should be most on their mind.
There's an equal possibility of the Buccaneers stockpiling more for the future as there is of them replacing and adjusting in the short term to try to contend without Brady. Brady leaving New England forced changes there with a wide range of outcomes for the following year. That's the same dilemma facing Tampa Bay now.
