The Patriots offense is in a tailspin, and people are starting to ask the question: What is wrong with Tom Brady?
New England needs a plan in case Brady's poor play continues. The quarterback has one of the more unique contracts in the NFL, which leaves the Patriots with two options, both of which require change for the franchise.
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For years the Patriots have planned roster strategies around the idea that Brady would cover mistakes. The quarterback seemed impervious to roster turnover, but in the past two seasons the Patriots jettisoned wide receiver Wes Welker and guard Logan Mankins for low-cost replacements. Both cases have led to poor results.
Many analysts last season felt Brady had lost the ability to make certain throws and could no longer drive the ball. Brady indeed has seen a statistical decline in each of the last two seasons, and he's on pace for the worst non-injury season of his career.
Brady has been the most willing player in the NFL to provide his team financial flexibility. In 2013 he opted for a low-cost extension rather than forcing the Pats to pay him top dollar. At the time Brady could have asked for $100 million over five years. Instead, Brady’s extension would pay him just $27 million over three new contract years and $57 million over the full, five-year period.
That contract, however, had a catch. As a kickback from the Patriots to Brady for accepting the low contract, they essentially guaranteed his entire deal. His 2015-2017 salaries became fully guaranteed provided he is on the roster for the last game of the 2014 season. The cost to release Brady and avoid that guarantee would be $18 million against the salary cap in 2015. So not even considering his legend status in New England, he is virtually assured of earning that guarantee.
Brady's salary cap charges over the next three years are $13, $14 and $15 million respectively. Those figures, not too crippling, will leave the Patriots two options to consider.
The first is to continue to start Brady for the duration of the contract, which would make him the QB until he's 40. That would force the Pats to shift their salary cap and roster strategies to invest in players around Brady, rather than expecting Brady to turn lower-cost investments into stars.
It starts with the draft, where the over-reliance on Brady has allowed the Patriots to shift priorities away from offense. Since 2007, over 71 percent of the Patriots' picks in the first two rounds have been used on defensive players.
Patriots draft selections, 2007-2014:
The Patriots must consider spending more on free agents who can contribute right away. Despite their Brady savings, the Patriots still field one of the lowest cash payrolls in the NFL. Their largest multi-year free agent investment is just $5.7 million per season on Danny Amendola. This can not continue with the older version of Brady.
Option two sees the Patriots begin to shift Brady to the bench and begin the evaluation of a younger quarterback. Because Brady’s cap charges are not excessive, the team can afford to field a high draft pick and keep Brady on the roster.
Many found it curious when the Patriots looked at some of the higher-rated QB draft prospects in 2014 — some speculated that coach Bill Belichick just wanted a first-hand look at the quarterbacks he'd face. But it's just as reasonable to think that Belichick saw the decreases in efficiency last year and wanted to begin planning his eventual exit strategy.
The Patriots did draft a quarterback, Jimmy Garoppolo, in the second round — the highest QB selection of the Belichick era. Garoppolo gives New England an option to evaluate in a blowout win or loss, rather than keeping Brady on the field for all four quarters.
Brady’s contract does not contain a no-trade provision, and a trade is indeed a way for the Pats to avoid the guaranteed salary. They moved on from Drew Bledsoe years ago and watched as the Colts released Peyton Manning when the right prospect came along.
Brady and the Patriots may face the harsh option of moving on in the near future.
Jason Fitzgerald is an NFL salary expert and contributor for Sporting News. Read more of his writing at OverTheCap.com and follow him on Twitter: @Jason_OTC.