When the Jaguars host the Titans to open the NFL's 2019 Week 3 schedule, it will mark the fifth time in six seasons the teams have played on "Thursday Night Football" (8:20 p.m. ET, NFL Network).
With the exception of 2017, half of this seasonal AFC South series has gotten the TNF spotlight. In '14 and '15, the Jaguars won back-to-back home games at then EverBank Field, 21-13 and 19-13. When the action moved to Nashville's Nissan Stadium for '16 and '18, the Titans dominated in 36-22 and 30-9 routs.
Last year's December meeting was stamped by Tennessee's Derrick Henry rushing for 238 yards and four touchdowns, including a record-tying 99-yard scoring burst. In the same game, his Jacksonville backfield counterpart, Leonard Fournette, was held to only 36 yards on 14 carries.
What will happen as the Thursday action returns to Duval County and now TIAA Bank Field? Here's everything to know before betting on the "Thursday Night Football" game, including updated odds, trends and our prediction.
MORE: Get the latest NFL odds at Sportsbook Review
Betting odds for 'Thursday Night Football'
- Spread: Titans -1.5
- Point total: 39
- Odds: Titans -105, Jaguars -105
The Titans (1-1) have been holding steady as slight road favorites over the Jaguars (0-2). The Titans rolled over the Browns on the road in Week 1, and were edged by the Colts at home in Week 2. The Jaguars were blown out at home against the Chiefs, before losing by a point at the Texans.
Titans vs. Jaguars all-time series
This rivalry dates back to 1995, when the Jaguars entered the NFL as an expansion team to battle the Titans' former selves, the Houston Oilers, in the AFC Central. The peak came in '99, when the wild-card Titans beat the division-winning Jaguars to advance to Super Bowl 34.
Since 2002, when both teams entered the AFC South, the Titans hold a 21-13 edge. They are riding a four-game winning streak to further pad their differential.
Three trends to know
— The Titans have won five of the past six meetings and also are 5-1 against the spread in those games.
— This has been a defensive-minded matchup. In only 8 of 25 meetings since 1996 has the point total gone over.
— In addition to bettors flocking toward the under (63 percent), most of the action (58 percent) is on the Titans taking care of the number.
MORE: Why Gardner Minshew might be the NFL's most interesting QB
Three things to watch
Henry II?
The Titans' running back is picking up where he left off in 2018 with a hot start to '19. Henry is sixth in the NFL with 165 yards rushing, averaging 4.9 yards per carry. He has 3 total touchdowns, including from scoring on a 75-yard reception in Week 1. He remains the centerpiece of the Tennessee offense, even with the line a little shorthanded without suspended left tackle Taylor Lewan.
The Jaguars rank 17th against the run, just yielding a solid game to Texans power back Carlos Hyde. Look for Tennessee to give Henry his first 20-touch game as they try once again grind away to pull away.
Fournette results
It's been a different story for Fournette. He has a solid 181 yards from scrimmage with 36 touches over two games, but his rushing totals have been only 66 and 47 as the Jaguars haven't gotten him going as much they would like to help rookie quarterback Gardner Minshew.
The tight game script should allow Fournette to be a bigger factor on Thursday. The Titans have uncharacteristically struggled against the run early, giving up 269 yards rushing at a 5.0 yards-per-carry clip in two games.
Minshew vs. Mariota
Minshew has been an absolute gamer since Nick Foles went down in the opener against the Chiefs. He's been fearless and efficient in pushing the ball downfield to speedy wide receivers D.J. Chark and Chris Conley. He also has been sacked five times and committed two turnovers. He faces his toughest test yet against the Titans' No. 2-ranked pass defense, which already has 4 interceptions and 8 sacks with a good combination of edge rush and secondary coverage.
Mariota also has had decent start. He's battling a quadriceps injury already after being sacked four times in each game, but he's also back to protecting the ball despite some mixed results when throwing downfield. He's been helped by Henry and the return of tight end Delanie Walker, but he needs more from wide receivers Corey Davis, Adam Humphries and A.J. Brown to turn the corner as a passer and to earn a big next contract.
MORE: Derrick Henry finally realizing potential for Titans with inexplicable power-speed combo
Stat that matters
Since the Titans unleashed Henry as their workhorse in that December game against the Jaguars, they are 4-2, losing only to the Colts twice. Meanwhile, the Jaguars have been waiting since the '17 divisional playoff win against Pittsburgh for a healthy Fournette top 100 yards rushing in a game. They are 3-7 in the past 10 games he's started.
Titans vs. Jaguars prediction
There's no reason to think this will be a high-scoring game with limited quarterbacks and good pass defenses. There's every reason to think the game will be a shortened slugfest with the team who runs the ball more effectively winning. Minshew and Mariota may be a draw, but it's advantage Henry over Fournette.
Titans 20, Jaguars 17
