The Cincinnati Bengals are one of seven undefeated teams left in the NFL and are the biggest favorites of that bunch on Sunday, when they host the Tennessee Titans (1 p.m. ET, CBS). With a dominant 24-10 victory against the Atlanta Falcons last week that ran their regular-season home winning streak to 10 games, the Bengals moved up three spots to No. 5 in the Don Best/Linemakers NFL Power Ratings, and they are 10-0 ATS during that stretch.
The Line: Bengals -7, Total: 43
Line movement: The Bengals opened -7 across the board in Las Vegas, and -- with the exception of the SuperBook, which moved to -6.5 -- the line held there through Thursday, as the status of All-Pro wide receiver A.J. Green remained up in the air. Green’s toe injury is also affecting the total a bit, as it has dipped to 43 from the opener of 43.5 and gone as low as 42.5 at the South Point. For updated spreads and totals from around Las Vegas, visit our live odds page.
Trends that matter: The Bengals are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games (including playoffs). The Titans are 5-1 SU and ATS in their last six games against AFC North opponents.
The OVER is 4-1 in Cincinnati's last five games before a bye week, 3-0 in the team's last three home games against AFC South opponents and 5-2 in the last seven home games overall.
Dalton, Bengals have the eye of the tiger: Any bettors who thought Cincinnati would let a home playoff loss to San Diego in January carry over to this year could not have been more wrong. Not only are the Bengals picking up where they left off in 2013, but they have emerged as legitimate Super Bowl contenders, dropping from 18-to-1 to 12-to-1 over the last week on the SuperBook's futures board.
In the AFC, only the Denver Broncos (3-to-2) and New England Patriots (3-to-1) are bigger favorites to win the conference than Cincinnati (5-to-1). The difference between those teams and the Bengals is the quarterback position, as the Broncos and Patriots both have future Hall of Famers in Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, respectively.
Cincinnati has Andy Dalton, who has been ridiculed in the past for his poor play in the team’s biggest games, including the most recent postseason game against the Chargers. Dalton signed a six-year contract extension in the offseason worth $115 million, leaving Bengals fans to wonder whether or not he would be worth it by the time the deal expires. So far this season, so good. Through two games, Dalton has yet to throw an interception or be sacked.
“Turnovers are big and turnovers decide the game,”' Dalton said. “'So we've got to keep doing a good job of protecting the ball.”
Titans limiting passers: Despite losing 26-10 at home loss to the Dallas Cowboys, Tennessee did a solid job containing opposing quarterback Tony Romo last week. The Titans limited Romo to just 176 passing yards, and they lead the NFL in pass defense, surrendering an average of 163 yards through two games.
Unfortunately for Tennessee, Dallas running back DeMarco Murray ran for a game-high 167 yards on 29 carries with one touchdown to help control the clock once his team got an early lead. The Bengals could very well look to follow that same offensive game plan against the Titans, pounding the ball with running backs Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill, a rookie from LSU who rushed for 74 yards on 15 carries against Atlanta last week.
Bernard is Cincinnati’s leading receiver with 11 catches for 141 yards, and he could be a big factor in this game, especially if Green does not play. Keep in mind, the Bengals head into their bye week after facing the Titans and could decide to give Green some extra rest to make sure he is fully healed for a Week 5 road game against the New England Patriots. That may not matter if Tennessee is without top cornerback Jason McCourty, who is questionable with a groin injury.
With the running games for both teams expected to be the key in this matchup, the UNDER looks to be a good play, going 3-0 in the last three meetings and 4-0 in the past four games overall for the Titans dating back to 2013. The UNDER has also cashed in both of Cincinnati’s two games this season.
Weather: The forecast calls for mild temperatures, around 75 degrees, with mostly cloudy skies and a greater than 50 percent chance of thunderstorms. Visit Weather Underground for the latest forecast.Handicapping tools: Titans-Bengals matchup analysis | TEN team page | CIN team page
The Linemakers' lean: The Bengals went 8-0 ATS at home last season and they’re 1-0 ATS at home this season. And while we only give the Jungle 2.5 points toward the betting line, our numbers also show Cincy is 6 points better than Tennessee on a neutral field -- so the right number in this game is Cincy -8.5. Even with a half- of full-point adjustment for A.J. Green's absence, there's still value laying 6.5 against a Titans squad searching for an identity. Also, each team has stayed UNDER the total in both its games, thanks to solid defense. Look for that to continue. The plays are Cincy and UNDER.
Information from The Associated Press was used in this report.
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