For both the Titans and Jaguars, 2017 has been a special, long-awaited season. With identical 6-3 records entering Week 11, both look good enough to end two of the AFC's longest playoff droughts.
Tennessee's last postseason trip was in 2008; Jacksonville last qualified in '07. At this point, however, settling for a wild card isn't an acceptable goal for either team. Both want to win the AFC South and be guaranteed a home game in January, which in turn would provide a greater chance of also winning a playoff game.
Neither has to worry about Houston or Indianapolis, the two teams that split the last eight division titles. The Titans have held the division lead because of their 37-16 beatdown of the Jaguars in Jacksonville in Week. 2. The teams will play each other again, in Nashville, in Week 17.
MORE: NFL playoff picture for Week 11
The Titans and Jaguars are in a dead heat with a lot left to play before their second matchup. According to odds from Bovada, both the Titans and Jaguars are 11/10 to win the division.
Here's handicapping how we think it will play out as the South prepares to crown a new champion.
Titans: How much will Marcus Mariota matter?
Offensive rankings: No. 8 rushing, No. 27 passing, No. 19 total, No. 13 scoring
Defensive rankings: No. 6 rushing, No. 19 passing, No. 16 total, No. 22 scoring
Schedule: at Steelers, at Colts, vs. Texans, at Cardinals, at 49ers. vs. Rams, vs. Jaguars
The Titans have won four consecutive games after getting ripped by Deshaun Watson and going in the tank with Matt Cassel. But those opponents all were sub-.500 teams in Indianapolis, Cleveland, Baltimore and Cincinnati.
What's left on the schedule isn't too difficult, save for Pittsburgh and the final two weeks. The problem: Looking at the Titans' positive numbers, down to their plus-1 turnover margin, there's nothing that stands out. They are good at the coach-speak basics of running the ball and stopping the run, which can take teams a long way.
But if the Titans really want to vie for the division, they'll need Marcus Mariota to take over more games. The QB has a good Pro Football Focus grade despite not putting up big numbers, ranking No. 8 at the position to match his jersey number. With rookie first-rounder Corey Davis back at wideout, Mariota is up to a full complement of receivers. Coach Mike Mularkey also has been committed to letting Mariota take off and run more often to spark the offense.
Now that Mariota is healthy deep into a season, he needs to find another gear. DeMarco Murray has slowed down the Titans' traditional rushing attack, and they still seem reluctant in letting Derrick Henry get more chances. As well as Tennessee has lit up the scoreboard in some games, the maddening inconsistency has left a lot of untapped potential.
In a conference where the Patriots, Steelers and Chiefs rule, the Titans have yet to prove they're up to the same passing pop. Given that their constant pass defense woes leave them prone to getting into higher-scoring affairs than they would like, Mariota has to go from solid to spectacular. That's not an easy ask.
WEEK 11 NFL PICKS:
Against the spread | Straight up
Jaguars: Will Blake Bortles break bad?
Offensive rankings: No. 1 rushing, No. 23 passing, No. 6 total, No. 9 scoring
Defensive rankings: No. 25 rushing, No. 1 passing, No. 3 total, No. 1 scoring
Schedule: at Browns, at Cardinals, vs. Colts, vs. Seahawks, vs. Texans, at 49ers, at Titans
The Jaguars have had two obvious weaknesses for much of the season: quarterback play and run defense. Here's the good news: As the season has progressed and some things have changed with personnel, they're shoring up those areas a little more every week.
Given how strong their strengths are — power running, pass rushing, shutdown coverage — they don't need to be perfect in the areas where they are weak. That doesn't even account for how much their special teams have provided a boost the past two weeks.
Is Bortles rolling with efficiency? No. But with the burden of winning games no longer on him, he's relaxed and not making big mistakes. He's getting passes to the right guys in the right situations, and as teams have struggled to stop Leonard Fournette even when stacking the box, Bortles is gaining more confidence in his favorable coverage connection with new go-to receiver Marqise Lee.
Now here comes rookie Dede Westbrook ready to provide another threat in the passing game, just in time with fading No. 2 Allen Hurns on the shelf. When needed, tight end Marcedes Lewis can be a big factor as a short-to-intermediate "safe" target.
The run defense numbers still look bad, but that's because of major damage done earlier in the season, mostly from the games against the Titans, Jets and Rams. Things have dramatically changed with the simple acquisition of tackle Marcell Dareus in a trade with Buffalo. Jacksonville gave up 139 yards per game rushing on average before he arrived for Week 9. Since then, it's been 116 total allowed in two games.
Dareus provided a big boost and more refreshment to the interior rotation to play better off ends Calais Campbell and Yannick Ngakoue. The depth is improved, providing more help for the second level to clean up. Going position-by-position, it's now hard to find a real hole in Jacksonvile's defense.
In turn, the Jaguars can be put even in more control of game flow, meaning Bortles can improve as a better "game manager" than Peyton Manning was when the Broncos won it all going defense-heavy just two seasons ago.
MARVEZ: What's wrong with the AFC this year?
AFC South: How does it finish?
1. Jaguars 12-4
2. Titans 9-7
Forget what happened in Week 2. Jacksonville's current profile looks the part of a surefire playoff team, and a dangerous one at that. The Jaguars' whipping of the Steelers in Pittsburgh is a reminder they're somebodies that nobody, including Pittsburgh, New England and Kansas City, wants to face in January.
As much as it would be fun to have a de facto championship game to decide the division in Week 17, Jacksonville's overall play and schedule edge is bound to develop a good cushion before then. Luckily for Tennessee, as bad as Buffalo and the rest of the wild-card hopefuls are now, even a 3-4 slump will look good enough to stay in the AFC playoff picture.
