An AFC West showdown is set to take place in Kansas City on Thursday night between the Chiefs and Broncos. The bigger, more important showdown will take place on DraftKings between our DFS lineup and the countless other entries that hope to become a grand prize winner. As Week 6 kicks off at Arrowhead, our arrow is pointed right at the bullseye, landing us in the green.
The Chiefs have seemingly been sleepwalking through the season, almost appearing bored at having to go through another regular season after a long, dominant run of success. They play like a team that knows they'll win and choose to toy with teams for the first three quarters to keep it interesting.
As for the Broncos, they are a group that has once again played below expectations, which were already low to begin with. The Sean Payton experiment hasn't worked, and prices at Walmart keep rising with each Russell Wilson incompletion. It's not even Halloween and Denver is playing for pride. On the bright side, that pride gives us some value for our DraftKings lineup.
Before we get into our lineup and strategy, here are the key scoring settings for DraftKings Showdown contests: They're full-point PPR and there are three-point bonuses for 300 passing yards, 100 rushing yards, and 100 receiving yards. The Captain pick costs 1.5 times a player's original price, but he also gets his point total multiplied by 1.5.
MORE THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:
FD lineup | Best props | Betting preview | Start-sit | Kelce update
Broncos-Chiefs DraftKings Picks: DFS lineup for Week 6 Thursday Night Football
$50,000 budget, need at least one player from each team.
Captain (1.5x points, 1.5x salary): QB Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs ($19,200)
Sometimes the best answer is the easiest one. Mahomes is the best player in the game, and if you ran Thursday night's matchup through a simulator, he'd be the top performer an overwhelming majority of the time. Travis Kelce's injury clouds the outlook of Kansas City's offense, so we'll instead opt for the engine that keeps it running. Mahomes hasn't put up the gaudy numbers that you'd expect from someone like him this season, throwing 10 touchdowns and four interceptions, but K.C. gets to face the second-most generous defense to quarterbacks in terms of fantasy. The Broncos give up an average of 22.2 fantasy points per game (FPPG) and boast a defense that can be exploited through the air and on the ground. It's not a flashy pick and will certainly be a popular pick in terms of DFS, but we need the floor that Mahomes guarantees to let the rest of our lineup prosper.
FLEX QB Russell Wilson, Broncos ($9,600)
Wilson might've been zapped of the powers that once made him a star, but that doesn't mean he isn't more than capable of delivering a solid return on investment for DFS. He's been a top-10 quarterback option for fantasy this season and has delivered consistent results despite the Broncos' endless follies. Owning an 11-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio, Wilson should also get the added boost of padding some stats in garbage time unless the Chiefs shockingly let the Broncos hang around in a low-scoring affair.
FLEX WR Jerry Jeudy, Broncos ($9,000)
Denver's season might be lost while it sits at 1-4, but that doesn't mean it can't start working out the kinks for 2024. Sean Payton's first season in the Mile High City obviously hasn't gone as planned, and Jeudy's lack of production is part of the problem. The receiver is yet to find the end zone this season, but he ranks second on the team in targets with 24. That type of opportunity is bound to pay big dividends at some point, and there's no better time than the present. The Chiefs have been a stingy defense thus far in 2023, but they've regressed a bit in back-to-back weeks, allowing at least 20 points to the Vikings and the Zach Wilson-led Jets. Their numbers are somewhat skewed following dominating victories over the Jaguars and Bears, giving us confidence that Jeudy can deliver.
FLEX WR Rashee Rice, Chiefs ($6,400)
The rookie is second on the team in targets with 24 and appears to be K.C.'s best receiving option not named Travis Kelce. Rice also has the second-most receiving touchdowns with two, seemingly always a factor in the red zone. His snaps have been all over the place each week, making it tough to project how involved he'll be on a game-to-game basis. We believe that Andy Reid knows he has something in the second-round pick and will have to utilize him more in what could be the worst receiving room in the league. In the unlikely event that Kelce doesn't play or is limited on the field, Rice is the one guy that should benefit the most.
FLEX WR Justin Watson, Chiefs ($2,200)
Speaking of Chiefs' receivers, Watson isn't someone who will give you a lot of volume in a given game, but he can wreck it with a big play or two. After all, there's a reason he's averaging 21.9 yards per catch. The speedster helps take the top off the defense, freeing up others underneath as defenses attempt to pick their poison. Denver's defensive struggles have been well-documented and allow the sixth-most yards per completion (11.1). Watson is primed for one of his patented long touchdown catches and should have a good chance to deliver on Thursday night.
FLEX WR Brandon Johnson, Broncos ($1,200)
Johnson is WR4 on the Broncos' depth chart, so why does he find his way into our lineup for Thursday night? He's established himself as a touchdown vulture. Johnson is "that guy" when NFL Red Zone picks up the Denver drive who somehow always seems to be on the receiving end of touchdowns. He has three on the season, with two of them coming inside the 20. Better yet, Johnson owns the second-most red-zone targets in the receiver's room with four, second to only Courtland Sutton, who has seven. There's a sadness that often overcomes fantasy owners when these types of guys vulture touchdowns from the stars. At just $1,200, he's a worthy add to our DFS lineup as a sleeper candidate who is also likely to be low-owned.
MORE DK SHOWDOWN: How to win a Showdown contest
Best SuperDraft Broncos-Chiefs DFS Picks
This year, we're also listing our favorite single-game DFS plays on SuperDraft.
For those unfamiliar, SuperDraft's DFS scoring involves point multipliers as opposed to traditional salary-capped or tiered contests. A winning lineup will likely feature a strong mix of stud fantasy contributors with 1x-1.6x boosts, as well as matchup-based sleepers with larger multipliers. Each player is assigned a scoring multiplier based on their value as determined by SuperDraft. Users can roster any player in their lineup with no restrictions.
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Here are the most notable scoring rules for SuperDraft NFL contests: Half-point PPR, four-point passing TDs, two-point bonuses for 100 rushing yards, 100 receiving yards, and 300 passing yards.
MORE SUPERDRAFT DFS: How to play SuperDraft
- Champion (+50% points): QB Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs (Multiplier 1.5x)
- Super FLEX: RB Isiah Pacheco, Chiefs (Multiplier 1.35x)
- Super FLEX: WR Rashee Rice, Chiefs (Multiplier 1.65x)
- Super FLEX: QB Russell Wilson, Broncos (Multiplier 1.35x)
- Super FLEX: WR Courtland Sutton, Broncos (Multiplier 1.5x)
The Chiefs should handle business pretty easily on Thursday night, taking out their division rivals without much fanfare. So, for our SueprDraft lineup this week, we'll stack a few of Kansas City's playmakers on offense. On the other side, Wilson and Sutton will have to connect quite a bit a negative game script awaiting them, forcing the Broncos to rely on the air more than they'd normally like.
