Following a breakout in 2023, the Texans will have a tougher path to make the playoffs this year.
The Texans' 2024 strength of schedule ranks 26th in the NFL, according to Sharp Football Analytics, meaning Houston has the seventh-toughest slate of games for this season.
Houston won the AFC South, setting them up to take on every team in the AFC that finished first, including the Chiefs, Ravens and Bills. The Texans won't just face the Bills, but the entire AFC East with the Dolphins who finished 11-6 and will travel to face the Jets with a [potentially] healthy Aaron Rodgers.
If there’s any solace to be taken from the rankings, nine of the 10 teams ranked with the toughest schedule are all AFC teams, meaning more than half of the 16 AFC teams have as equally tough a schedule or worse than the Texans.
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Houston finished the 2023 year with a strength of schedule ranked sixth. That’s a 20-spot difference from their 26th ranking this year. The Texans rank dead last in their year-over-year rankings due to going from one of the easiest schedules this past year to one of the projected toughest this year — due mostly to their jump from worst to first in the AFC South
Texans schedule ranks among the toughest
Apart from their AFC slate, the Texans will also play the NFC North and the reigning NFC East champion Cowboys. Both the Cowboys and the reigning NFC North champion Lions tied with the 49ers for the best record in the NFC this past season at 12-5.
Houston will have four divisional games against the Jaguars and Colts who each finished this past season one game behind the Texans in the division at 9-8. They'll also play the Titans twice.
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Out of the 17 games on the Texans' schedule, 11 are against teams that finished this past season with a winning record. Three of the remaining six are against teams coming off of 7-10 seasons with two teams coming off of 6-11 seasons. The Patriots finished with the worst record of Houston’s 2024 opponents at 4-13.
Here is how the Texans’ 2024 opponents breakdown with implied win total and their 2023 record.
| Team | Home/Away | Implied 2024 win total | 2023 record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ravens | Home | 11.3 | 13-4 |
| Lions | Home | 10.5 | 12-5 |
| Cowboys | Away | 10.4 | 12-5 |
| Bills | Home | 10.6 | 11-6 |
| Dolphins | Home | 9.85 | 11-6 |
| Chiefs | Away | 11.5 | 11-6 |
| Colts | Home & Away | 8.3 | 9-8 |
| Jaguars | Home & Away | 8.3 | 9-8 |
| Packers | Away | 10.1 | 9-8 |
| Jets | Away | 9.55 | 7-10 |
| Vikings | Away | 6.75 | 7-10 |
| Bears | Home | 8.7 | 7-10 |
| Titans | Home & Away | 6.15 | 6-11 |
| Patriots | Away | 4.87 | 4-13 |
